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Merry Christmas everyone, -10 so far, close but no cigar has been a recurring theme but hopefully some better lick for Christmas.
F1:45 At the prices worth siding with Bertenbars course record, back to some kind of form LTO.
F2:15 The best form would appear to belong to Disputed, 3rd in a very useful Class 2 Handicap LTO, should be there at the finish.
H12:45 Markov went off way too keen last time out before being pulled up, if he can be reigned in this time, could well be around at the finish, and at a generally available 14/1 worth an each way, or place only shout.
H3:05 Kapgarde King looks the value bet, beating Prettylittlething on his penultimate start, who won her next 2 races and now rated 96 herself. Well held next time, nut could go better after a short break.
K12:55 Impossible to see past Jenkins for this, and even at 2/1 odds on, looks value at that.
K2:05 There has to be question marls over the trip and ground for Anibale Fly, Might Bight couldn’t have wone more easily last time but this is a massive step up in class. Amore Alto relished the step up t 3m last time, but I am going with Present Man who beat some very good horses last time.
K2:40 Has to be The New One for me, already beaten My Tent Or Yours last time, and not massively confident on Yanworth, after rumors of him maybe not seeming right, and maybe not turning out here last week.
K3:15 Have to side with experience and Cue Card here, Thistlecrack has of course been very impressive but they are likely to go at a much greater pace here, and will be a much sterner test of his jumping. Cure Card hasn’t always been the most sure footed himself, but has the experience over Thistlecrack. Also worth a dabble could be an each way on Silvianico Conti, if the 2 maket leaders beat the crap out of each other be could pick up the pieces.
K3:40 Lisheen Prince has been in my watch list since last year, getting better all the time.
L1:15 Landofhopeandglory sets the standard but at 16/1 Lord Justice has to be worth an eachway punt on the form, comfortably beating zigag who was previously 2nd to Landofhopeandglory. 16/1 seems a ludicrous price.
L2:20 how can you possibly oppose Min?
MR1:45 Worth a chance on No More Blackjack, good point winner, and from a good line of chasers. Done OK without setting the world alight in hurdles, chasing could be his game.
WE1:50 Blaklion may struggle from the top of the weights, and Jamie Bargary not the most reliable around here, Definitely Red would prefer more cut in the ground, and so preference for Yala Enki if he can get the 3m.
WI2:15 Onefitzall has set a decent standard, but Buywise who has been frustrating over fences could be very dangerous off a mark of 140 back over the smaller obstacles.
Ah well lets have a go for today.
C12:50 Very interesting race, lots that can be made cases for, but Pobbles Bay has been 1 to follow for me this year, and the wide margin victory over Bun Doran and Poker School looks like the form to beat.
C2:40 Firebird Flier, second to Mountainous last time and followed that up with victory in the Midands National.
K12:40 Master Blueyes one of mine to watch, slightly disappointing at Wetherby made several mistake, if learning from that then open to improvement.
K2:20 Taking 10lb from Sire De Grugy this should go to Special Tiara
K2:55 Taking a chance with Drumcliff on his handicap debut, could be weighted for a good run here.
L12:15 Meri Devie I always make a point of backing Mullins & Walsh new comers, has done me well in the past.
L3:00 Bonny Kate is in my watch list so will side with her here.
W2:05 Brian Hughes can hopefully get the best out of Fixed Rate in this.
Edit. Missed out Workds End and Denameescapesme
And a Treble to finish off
L12:45 Bacardys
L1:20 Douvan
K1:45 AltiorSome Lay bets for today
C2:40 Native River @ 4.1
K2:55 William H Boney @ 14
K3:30 Out Sam @ 7
L1:55 Avenir D’une Vie @ 5.3That’s more like it
Pobbles Bay 1st @ 9/2 +4.5
Special Tiara 1st @ 8/11 +0.73
Meri Devie 1st @ 7/2 (taken last night) +3.5
Worlds End 1st @ 5/1 +5
Treble won @ Evens +1So that’s +14.73
Bonny Kate & De Name Escapes Me both NR so -4 on the others and -1.1 on the lays making -5.1
So +9.63 for the day
-7.87 running total.
C2:10 Thank You Very Much should be able to make a bold hatrick bid
Le2:00 Milgen Bay may be the one who appreciates the fast ground the most, and current 9/1 seems far too big.
Le2:35 Rockportian is in my watch list and well regarded by Greatrex
Le3:10 Its hard to say that Master Dee shouldn’t be a short favourite, but, it could well be worth forgiving Father Edwards last run.
Leo3:00 Djakadam
Lim2:15 Missy Tata, another from my watch list this year.
Selections for tomorrow
D2:05 all of the previous encounters point to Briary Belle being the best of these, deserves to be favourite, and on the face of it should be more than capable of cementing.
Le12:50 The Rory Story, one from my watch list after reading Noel Meads stable tour. Didn’t perform well on hurdles debut but at current 20/1 has place claims if learning from that experience.
Le1:20 Lets Dance, always back Ruby riding LTO winners for Mullins.
Le1:55 The form would seem to point to Coney Island being the one they all need to beat.
Le2:30 No reason to presume that Nichols Canyon will not continue to be just too good.
For tomorrow
N1:50 Messire Des Obeaux. I have 4 runners from my watch list in this race, who are also the first four in the current betting. Robin Roe certainly won well enough in a class 4, and the well beaten second place horse has followed up with a win in class 4 himself. However both of Messire Des Obeaux wins have come at a much higher level, beating 133 rated Tornado In Milan by 10 lengths. Its a high quality race no doubt and very interesting to see who comes out on top.
N2:25 Knockgraffon good win over Sirabad LTO over C&D up 12 for that, Cepage demolished the field in his first handicap and up 13 for that. Second place in that was eased down on the run in so winning margin may not have been quite so generous as it looks on paper?
N3:00 Geordie Des Champs, 3 out of 3 in novices Geraghty riding is a bonus and has a very good record for Rebecca Curtis.
N3:35 Interesting with Geraghty booked, consistent at Class 2 level on flat and rated 99. William Henry clearly brings the form but will be plenty short enough.
P12:15 One from my watch list, been pitched in against some pretty hot rivals to date, but could have a chance here if staying on his feet.
P1:20 Sure Reef, falls into my always backing Walsh riding a Mullins LTO winner rule. Off a long time but if anyone is going to have a horse ready!
W1:00 Buveur D’Air sets a clear standard.
Geraghty Double + Sure Reef & Buveur D’Air Double
That was supposed to be Geordie Des Champs & Buveur D’Air double as obviously Geraghty not riding Sure reef Duh!
F12:20 C’est Jersey -1
F2:40 Balko Des Flos +2.5
E12:40 Neon Wolf +0.4
E3:30 Bramble Brook -1
C1:25 Clan Des Obeaux -1
M12:30 Neitzsche -1
M1:40 Pain Au Cocolat -1
M2:50 Superb Story +1.5-0.6 Today -17.78 overall
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