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Is there any chance that black jack ketchum is over rated and can be beaten tommorrow. if he is going to be beaten it will be tommorrow on heavy ground. could inglis drever show his battling qualities and come up the hill infront? the race looks like it will have plenty of pace in it and black jack wont be able to just out speed them from the last, atleast if he does, he is something very special.
ID needs to improve from his first run to win this… Beating Irish Wolf a neck wouldn’t be good enough to win this. Irish Wolf didn;t do the form much good afterwards (I’m speaking from experience as I backed it).
BJK has yet to face as stern a test as this, but in reality the stayers division is the weakest it’s been for a while.. Can’t see him being beaten. I’ll be watching flight leader with interest though.
good point aragorn, but do you not think ID will come on for the run being as he was off for 12 months and his trainer said he would come on for the race because he hadnt been too hard on him at home before hand. i just think if ID can reproduce the form of his world hurdle run, he would take alot of beating. remember we have never seen what BJK finds off the bridle.
I don’t disagree, I just think he will have to improve a lot on the back of such a long lay off.. I really hope he gives him a race though, would be nice to see BJK tested
Ruby Walsh, on getting off an unfit Dom D’Orgeval, third to Inglis Drver and Irish Wolf at Newbury, announced that that pair would never beat him again so I wouldn’t get too carried away with the Howard Johnson runner.
Isn’t there a chance that Inglis lacked at least as much for fitness that day as what the ex-Nick Williams charge did?
Inglis Drever is the only staying hurdler that i think is capable of beating Black Jack Ketchum. I hope so anyway because i backed it at 14/1 at the start of the year!
My big worry is that ID will hit a flat spot at a crucial part of the race. On this ground though I think it is possible BJK can be outstayed by the Inglis.
Agree with you there FSL, the fact that Inglis Drever does often in that flat spot in his races whereas Black Jeck travels so well. He is such an easy horse as well, i don’t think the ground will pose any problems for him, granted he may not like it as much as some of his rivals but i can’t see him being beaten.
He is a very good horse in my opinon, i know he hasn’t beaten THAT much in all of his wins, but as soon as he won a bumper at Worcester a few years ago i thought he was good (although if my father’s fillie’s saddle hadn’t have slipped that day she may have gave him a good run for his money).
I am disappointed they havent considered BJK for the champion, he has enough speed and the way he travels suggests he has enough class.
If anything does beat him it will be ID, if they do battle it out i imagine there will be a long gap to the third horse.
Fascinating contest
<br>Can someone tell me as to why Flight Leader is such a decent price
(Edited by empty wallet at 7:24 pm on Jan. 26, 2007)
Because a literal reading of his last effort is probably misleading and he has plenty to find on the balance of his form perhaps?
im going to have a SMALL bet on ID to win. just feel its the right thing to do! also i get alot of pleasure from taking on short priced favourites, and its slightly profitable imo!
Mmm, that looks a decent effort giving weight to the 2nd and 3rd, probably over a trip on the short side to>
Temoin running close to Mighty Man previously off levels in the Long Walk, The French Furze getting beat a similar distance by Straw Bear previously and Afsoun next time both off levels
The 3 mile effort beating Labelthou looks decent enough too
Quote: from empty wallet on 7:52 pm on Jan. 26, 2007[br]Mmm, that looks a decent effort giving weight to the 2nd and 3rd,  probably over  a trip on the short side to>
Temoin running close to Mighty Man previously off levels in the Long Walk, The French Furze getting beat a similar distance by Straw Bear previously and  Afsoun next time both off levels
The 3 mile effort beating Labelthou looks decent enough too
Don’t think the form with the French Furze can be read literally, he always runs much better than his mark at both Haydock and Newcastle, he loves thoughs tracks. Would be well beaten other places. Sounds stupid but he always seems to show much improved form at both venues.
<br>You have to wonder what price Flight Leader would be if he had ‘trendier’ connections. He’s officially rated 160 after beating Temoin and Black Jack Ketchum was only put up to 161 after winning at Cheltenham and Aintree last year. At this stage he was only rated 145.
So the handicapper reckons FL has produced form 15lbs better than BJK at this point in his novice season. I can’t remember any novice hurdler with a higher rating before he’d even run at the Festival. Probably the highest in recent years was Rhinestone Cowboy, rated 157 AFTER he’d finished third in the Champion Hurdle.
To give a staying comparison, Iris’s Gift was rated 142 before he ran second to Baracouda in the Stayers.
The official handicapper can be wrong, but not usually by that much.
AP
Quote: from dave 22 on 7:39 pm on Jan. 26, 2007[br]im going to have a SMALL bet on ID to win. just feel its the right thing to do! also i get alot of pleasure from taking on short priced favourites, and its slightly profitable imo! <br>
I’d recommend it e/w though Dave!
Interesting post AP
<br>The Official Handicappers ratings more or less match my own for FL and BJK.
A back of FL has been placed
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<br>I really hope that BJK turns out to be as good as they think he is but I think that he’s going to have to be to beat Drever tomorrow.
Because of his lay-off, people seem to have forgot about how good ID was/is. Obviously we just don’t know if he has retained all of his ability but he’s won at Haydock & Warwick in bottomless so I think that he will at least give BJK a race tomorrow.
It’s just great that connections have given them both the go-ahead. As an 8yo, it’s about time that BJK took in a top-class race as he hasn’t won anything that you would shout about just yet….
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