April 17, 2007 at 09:58 #1415
Yesterday, I was mincing about the AP markets on Betfair, and happened to find myself looking at the Betfred GC. I saw a price that looked too good to be true: 90 for Bewley’s Berry. I snapped some of it up right away. Lo and behold, he pulls out of the Scottish National, but is still trading at about 40.
Now, I was aware that this could be the case when I placed the bet, but has Howard Johnson come out and said that he’s now finished for the season? Just wondering why the price was so large. And even if he hasn’t said anything publicly, what are the chances of that lay being inside knowledge? I’d imagine pretty high, but 90 was too good to ignore!
Any news/guidance would be appreciated.April 17, 2007 at 10:56 #52589dave 22Member
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i have no idea about the intention to run but, <br>A, He fell in the national so may be battered and bruised<br>B, He always runs well fresh, so running so soon after that fall is probably not a good idea<br>C, What form, appart from the becher chase, which seems to light him up, has he got to suggest he should be shorter than 40-1April 17, 2007 at 12:48 #52591
I think the fact that he was travelling as good as anything (or ‘cantering’ as his jockey put it) in the National when he came down is evidence enough to identify 40s as value, let alone 90s (or 89/1 to be exact)!
He carried 11-3 in the Beecher when he was second, and will almost certainly be off 10st in the Betfred, so staying shouldn’t be a problem. (For the record, he’s off the exact same mark of 138)<br>He’ll like the probable GF ground.<br>And if you look far enough back, you’ll see form such as a 3L 3rd in the Feltham, 6th in the R&SA Chase, and a 1.25L defeat to ED over 2m5 at Cheltenham, when giving ED 5lb.
I’d say that’s enough for most people to justify shorter than 40-1 on raw form.April 17, 2007 at 13:48 #52592dave 22Member
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Ok, fair enough, if he wins, well spotted, but he wont be carrying any of my money. <br>Just another thought i had, if he were to win the betfred, he could almost certainly kiss good bye to any chance of winning the national because his handicap mark would probably rocket. I would imagine he will be extremely lightlyApril 17, 2007 at 17:31 #52594GhostofTheFellowMember
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I think the yard will put him away for the season,and prepare him for another go at the national next season probably starting at Wetherby in November ..just my thoughts.
He did seem to be cantering when he came down.April 17, 2007 at 17:37 #52595
I don’t think there’s any doubt. He’s a National horse now. Having a National winner will be very high on Mr Wylie’s list.
In my heart of hearts I think you’ll be right, GoTF, but I hope you’re not!
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