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G’Day All,
First, I would first apologise for not giving an explanation of what these lines are?
Briefly, here are a few ‘rule of thumb’ guidelines that you may find helpful.
They represent what I consider the fair odds for the contenders in each race. Any horse whose “fair odds” are listed at 6/1+ are not considered a contender on my line, so in a race that I list at 15/2 the field (see 12:45 Leop) as an example below – I would and will not consider this as a betting race. Thus, the race is a <PNC> Pass No Contender race. I use numerous filters – e.g: Any race where I list my top-rated at 6/4 or under – this is these lines with a minimum 50% mark up before considering a horse to bet on – alternative ‘value-for-money’ percentages can thus be used (higher or lower) to try and attain overlay situations …
Anyroadup – Here’s the Lexus card for tommorow:
12:10 Leop: 2/1 Road To Respect, 5/2 Showem Silver, 4/1 Chain Gang, 13/2 Below Mome/…
12:45 Leop: 15/2 Mall Dini & Malt Gem, 8/1 The Westener Boy & Woodford Island & Jimmy Two Times/…
13:20 Leop: 13/4 Blazer, 10/3 Balbir Du Mathan, 10/3 My Hometown, 6/1 Tell Us More, 13/2 Zabana/…
13:55 Leop: 6/4 Arctic Fire, 9/4 Martello Tower, 11/4 Alpha Des Obeaux/…
14:15 Limk: 13/8 Tigris River, 3/1 Discosimo, 4/1 Theophilus, 6/1 Barnako Moriviere/…
14:30 Leop: 9/2 Elusive Ivy, 13/2 Prince Kup, 15/2 Winter Lion/Herminator, 8/1 Mighty Concorde/Definite Earl/Wotsforuwontgobyu, 10/1 Turnofthesun/…
15:05 Leop: 15/8 Don Poli, 3/1 Sir Des Champs, 4/1 Foxrock, 9/2 Carlingford Lough/…
15:35 Leop: 6/4 Broken Soul, 7/4 Gurteen, 5/1 Some Neck/…
Bon ChanceI really don’t understand how knowing this information is of any benefit? No use knowing what the odds should be, when no bookie is offering them?
I really don’t understand how knowing this information is of any benefit? No use knowing what the odds should be, when no bookie is offering them?
They’re his tissue prices. If you can beat them, then by llamodos’ calculations, you have value.
Tim you only have value with a horse who is going to win. What’s the point in backing a horse that u think has no hope just because you reckon he is value?
I hear what you’re saying Wexfordman, but if a decent judge is consistently beating SP, then any bookmaker is going to struggle to beat him.
i can understand both points of view and are both equally valid.I try and find what i believe is the ‘winner’ of the race,then have a price in mind what i will play at.
If i think it should be 3s shot and bookies price up at 6/4 i wont bet it,BUT it dont become a lay,just wont have a bet in the race.BTW happy new year in advance to everyone on TRF
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