Betting Strategy Help!

[Seandanista]

Hey!

im new to this forum so let me start by saying hello, im sean from dublin. i always had an interest in horseracing but it usually only centered around cheltenham and the irish grand national.

i recently sat watching at the races and picked horses based on form etc from irishracing.com and to very good success. iv noticed that out of 7 races, im sure to have 3 winners and a few placed.

my problem is turning this into a profit!

due to college and work commintments, i can afford to spend time in a bookies nor online.

i dnt bet huge amounts and im far too cautious to put money on the nose. i like to have a return for placed finishes.

i have tried accumulators but am always let down by usually one horse, much to my annoyance.

can anyone help me utilise my new found/jammy nack of picking decent horses? or am i being too cautious and therefore losing out?

thanks alot!

[Gerald]

Hi Sean

You’ve probably posted in the wrong area, as this is Rob North’s little dungeon, and I just post occasionally to stop him getting too lonely.

Rob will be sure to give you some advice.

I don’t see what the problem is with on the nose singles, as you will be having several of them, rather than just isolated ones.

I think the situation is comparable with me betting big-priced horses. In isolation it looks folly to have a bet on a particular big-priced horse, because it is highly unlikely to win. But as I bet several of them in the same race, it vastly increases the chance that one of them will pop-up, and thus my losing run won’t stretch to 50 or 100 races.

The problem with asking about betting strategy is that virtually everyone has a different one. However, betting strategy is secondary to being able to pick winners or placed horses in the first place.

You seem to be wanting to gain from your placed horses, without losing the chance for a big win either. I suppose this means either employing each-way doubles or each-way trebles.

I used to live in the same house as a guy who would bet a £2 EW Treble. Depending on the odds, this can payout quite well, but I think it will also increase the chances of you saying but for such-and-such horse I would have won such-and-such amount of money!

Gerald

[robnorth]

Sean

As Gerald said everyone will have a different approach to betting. If you find a method which you are happy with, and it sounds as if you are not bad at picking winners, then allow yourself a dry run without betting just to see how you get on.

The most important matter is to put aside a betting bank. This should be money totally put aside from your normal bill and spending money. If you don’t have enough to set up a betting bank immediately then save some money while doing your dry run. The golden rule is

don’t bet with money you can’t afford to lose

. I go to the extent of having a separate bank account just for my betting money and have done this for many years, and believe me it gives greater peace of mind.

The size of the bank depends on the strike rate. 50 x your normal stake should be a minimum, but if you better on longer priced horses the number of stakes in your bank should be bigger. Betting on horses from prices from around 4/1 up to treble figure prices, my own bank is 125 x my basic stake. Don’t get greedy, be prepared to start with smallish stakes and build up your bank. Record every bet so that you can identify your strong areas and weak areas. For example, looking at my own records, non-handicap chases have been a poor area for me this season whereas handicap hurdles have been my most successful area, but for you it might be totally different.

Make sure you are betting at the best possible terms. The exchanges are probably the best way to bet since the margins are tighter so you have more chance of gaining an edge than betting with bookmakers. If time is limited don’t worry too much as I sometimes bet on multiple selections in 10 or more races at the weekends and still only take half an hour to put my bets in place. Make sure that the amount of races you get involved I does not stretch the time you have to concentrate on them. If you do bet with bookmakers, scout around to find those who offer the best terms for your sort of betting.

The whole game is about putting as much in your favour as you possibly can. Bear in mind that success is only gained by putting a good strategy in place and making sound decisions. Don’t be greedy and be prepared to steadily accumulate your money. After all, if you can increase your bank by 10% over a year then you are doing a darned sight better than any bank or investment company is in the current climate.

Rob
.

[Aragorn]

I like to back win only and to level stakes unless i’m betting on big events where I know the form well and am willing to back my judgement more heftily. If you can maintain the strike rate you’ve put up you should be profitable anyway so work out a staking plan. Level stakes or a similar plan with kelly style staking and you should be fine.

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