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good man, you sound like someone I would love a few stellas with, if you have time you try and predict through your betting patterns, a few losers for us all to lay, and then you could bring me round to your way of thinking.
(Edited by TheMaster at 1:53 am on Feb. 24, 2002)
I have to come to Punter’s aid here…
I was warned by four different sources that what was going on at Lingfield was most definetely not a a normal betting pattern and it did send bells ringing.                        ÂÂÂ
These are the exact figures on Platinum Duke at 1pm when last I checked the market at Betfair:
last 2.85<br>low 2.15<br>high 2.85<br>Matched £34,121 (99% of the total matched on the race)<br>Unmatched £6,240<br>Total matched on the race was £34,538
The only other horse to have attracted similar type of early money at Betfair was Lord Of The River which by 1pm had matched £21,839
                BE CAREFUL FOLKS!<br>
(Edited by pixo at 2:43 am on Feb. 24, 2002)
Am I missing something here???
If 40k matched (actually only 20k bet due to betfairs double ccounting) that means that someone bet 20k on this horse. You cannot just lay a horse at a bigger price that Sp make a profit and walk away. You actually have to have someone to bet it. If 20k bet I am sure it wasnt 1000 £20 punters, more ike a few professionals betting at least 3k a peice.
are you guys actually so shallow that you only ever bet horses, dogs, golfers, bloody swimmers whatever and never lay them?? Remember a lay of the fav is just like backing all the rest.
I have to agree with Glenn here with all of his points. If yopu guys have alot of time on your hands have a look at betfair markets on odds on shots and see if this kind of betting is regular (it is in my opinion) but judge for yourself.
Anyway ask a betfair type question and i will happily give you my answer to it.
cheers
Punter – I don’t have access to any figures at the moment as I’m not at work until Monday. You say that we would expect to do more trade on a competitive race where there are many different opinions. I can assure you we wouldn’t. There is a direct correlation between the price of the fav in a race and the ammount of trade we do on it – the shorter the fav the bigger the volume. Bearing this in mind it is perhaps no surprise that the shortest priced horse of all those running at Lingfield and Kempton yesterday was none other than Platinum Duke! I believe our biggest volume so far was over 200k matched on Barracouda yesterday, was that one pulled?
So your circumstantial evidence of cheating (that of unusual betting patterns) is pretty thin as nothing unusual occured. I’m looking forward to seeing a recording of the race as it will be interesting to see your more substantive evidence – that of a bent jockey throwing a race. Why am I expecting to be in the position of the little boy as the emperor passes with his new clothes on?
In answer to your other questions, a typical 9 runner claimer might be bet to 115-120% and if you know that an even oney fav is going to finish unplaced the options are simply endless. You can make 15-20 times your stake on the spreads, you can approach an on course layer, you can back all the other horses in the race and even the csf throws up some massive value.
For what it’s worth, I go along with punter. 20k matched the night before at price well above that which it’ll be at nearer the race is a little off. Then again, coincidences do happen and betfair will match a vast majority of money on one horse if the odds are short enough. I still believe it’s worth looking at closer. Next time someone sees something they deem strange post it up and we can all see what happens. :cool:
Platinum Duke has won both of his races "tracking" or "chasing" the leaders.
He in fact tracked the leaders to win at Southwell on 14th Feb – why did the connections decide to do the following?
A) Give PDuke 9-5 to carry?<br>B) Step up the horse up from 7f to 8f AND front run?<br>C) Front run on a surfrace where front-runners have been struggling a lot (only a few seem to be able to front run and win)?
Firstly, they raced it on 9-5 so no one would claim the horse (expensive price for a horse that has just won a seller).
Secondly, they are either poor tacticians or plain mad.
Thirdly, see secondly.
It was hardly set out to romp home was it?
What about Young Devereaux recently? when the stable staff were aware of this horses non-participation in the ante-post race but not the backers who were surprisingly enough able to lay this horse at big odds!!!
It’s not what you know, it’s who you know unfortunately guys!!!
Last I heard BF were "looking into this" which we never heard the result of [amongst other things], if you deal with BF you are treated like a mushroom [kept in the dark and fed bull s**t] as they don’t care as long as they get commission on it!!!!
What alot of you guys are not understanding, is that Punter had wrote what was happening step by step well before the race had started in the Max bets column.I am no expert but I watched the race, and I had to agree with Punter that Platinum was probably the best thing of the day, as for front running or not Platinum’s form reads he can do both, The only argument in his form was POSSIBLY failing to get home in a B rated £29.000 Nursery over a mile at Newcastle in his last race as a 2yo, although POSSIBLY his best race was when he was 2nd to the classy miler Ashdown Express and that was over 7.4F at Bev. He made his first AW app. on the 24 Jan02 at South in a 0-85 in a 7f handicapp running off 81 only beating just over 2lenths and staying on, his last race was at South in a Seller the odds @1/2 won by 3l and was bought back in for 12.000gns. If I was into spread betting I think he could of won yesterdays race on form by anything up to 10 lenths, no problem, Look at all his form, and ratings and make your own mind up.
So this wonderhorse, who on his previous run had trounced the 34 rated Tong Ice by a grand total of 3 lengths at levels was now some kind of shoo in to give 8lb to the in form Master T (rated 66) and beat him by 10 lengths! The facts of the matter are simple – the horse was a terrible bet at evens as a reproduction of his previous run would have seen him finish unplaced. It is no secret that the horse is a front runner and that they are unfavoured by Lingfield so he was an obvious lay. It was clued up punters laying him not crooks.
The notion that he has run his best races when chasing the leaders is absolute poppycock. Front running tactics have worked best in the past. His postmark ratings where he has raced from the front or in second place read 81/80/79/81. His other ratings when he has chased the leaders or raced prominently read 59/72/76.
You made an error of judgement guys – get over it.
It would be interesting to know how Timeform had him rated in the race, Superform had him 12lbs in at the weights although not giving him the AW mark. can anyone expand?
Glen, forget about his last race, he won it, I am sure connections would rather win a race like that by a couple of lenths rather than a street would you not agree? and read ALL his other form. <br>
(Edited by paul101 at 12:27 pm on Feb. 24, 2002)
You don’t make errors of judgement? So every horse you tip wins except for those pulled by bent jockeys? I think it is pointless continuing this argument any further if that’s your reasoning.
Escorial hit the nail on the head with his quote.
It’s amazing how Glenn only ever pops over when Betfair is mentioned, and yet I never have never had a response to my queries funnily enough about the Flutter referrals? Strange how Betfair can be so picky about one topic and not about another?
I am fearing this site is turning into Betfairs very own forum and this worries me, as Punter say’s that this yet again has turned into a "lets talk about Betfair thread" which there seems to be an awful lot of lately.
Betfair have/had their own forum and if you want to moan about them put it in the ‘Bookmakers Review’ topic under the ‘Betfair’ topic as I’m sick of all this moaning about Betfair – punter had a valid point and it has turned into a Betfair moan as usual. I for one am sick of it as it is taking over this forum and if you want to moan about Betfair put it HERE.<br>
I believe our biggest volume so far was over 200k matched on Barracouda yesterday, was that one pulled?
<br>Glenn,
I have here the figures on Baracouda:
10am<br>Matched £12,365<br>1.30pm<br>Matched £37,529<br>…and as you point out 200K matched at the off.
Now that is a normal betting pattern, also Baracouda was trading at much shorter odds: low 1.40 high 1.50 and in a race worth £15000 to the winner.
It has since come to my attention that a well known tipping line who had advised a Maximum bet on Platinum Duke had to send an urgent message to its members to cancel the bet on the horse in view of what was happening.
I am not blaming you or Betfair Glenn, all that I am saying is that an unusual betting pattern had developed on Platinum Duke which was noted by not so naive gamblers who had the sense to keep out of it.
(Edited by pixo at 12:51 pm on Feb. 24, 2002)
punters point is ridiculous, he has bet an even money horse—it got beat— so he says it is bent. complete nonsense. <br>he thinks it should have been shorter than 6/4—others thought not.<br>plenty of punters bet evens on horses plenty win, plenty get beat, so what??? if they alll won their would be no bookies<br>
good point pixo. This is exactly the point i felt was note worthy and also the point that punter has been trying to make all along. Spot the irregular or unusual betting patterns and lets see what happens. Examining the betting patterns exhibited on Betfair is a worthy source of information which needs further investigation… all the facts need to be looked at.
I dont think punters point was that he bet the horse thus it must be bent. His point was that the betting seemed strange to him and the horse didn’t appear to be pushed as hard as it could have. Simply put, that is all he said. In fact, did he not half his bet because he felt it was strange… Whether or not he is right to think that it was bent will never be proven. I wouldn’t call him a sore loser at all…. he simply pointed out what he felt was unusual for all of us to digest and make of it what we will. It appears the majority think his hypothesis makes him a sore loser…
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