- This topic has 84 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
They do use it…  it really is impossible to back all the horses in a race and still win.  (Unless you have asked for a price on every single horse in the race and got them all matched)  If this was the case everyone would be backing every horse in every race and no one would bother even making up a book on there. ÂÂÂ
The bookies may have an over round of 108-111 %, on betfair you will usually get a book of 101-103% , not much of an over round, but still enough to ensure that laying is more profitable than backing all the other horses.  Try it :)  If you prove me wrong I will stand corrected ;)  I don’t mind being wrong!
even a two horse race where the odds are A = 1.98 and B = 2.00  is still better to lay.  Of course in a two horse race you are quite likely to get something above the over round matched if you ask for it… however anyone matching it would need their brain checking when they can see that it would be more advantageous to them if they were to back the other horse.
eg
A = 1.98<br>B = 2.00
you ask for 2.1 to back horse A.  Anyone thinking of taking up your offer will first see that it is better for them to back horse B at Evens than lay your offer.  And so the market goes round :)  If I’m typing rubbish someone please sort me out before I make a bigger fool of myself, but I believe a lay of odds will always beat backing all the other horses.
(Edited by larry layer at 11:13 pm on Feb. 23, 2002)
today in the kempton first i bet desert 200@ 4.7, and<br>350 @2.7 ichi beau, i am positive this was better than laying irbee, as i won more money, so maybe not all the time is it better to lay than bet..<br>You are probally right if there are a lot of runners like the last race today, when there were nearly 20 runners
Gents,<br>I`ve recently bought another greyhound, when it`s running at a meeting covered by BF , and it is likely to go off at a short price I`ll tell the trainer to stop it and lay it till the cows come home.<br>I think it`s called the laws of the jungle.<br>Survival of the fittest …..and all that.
Well, in that instance it was better to bet because the odds changed in your favour. (i didnt see the betting heat so I’m guessing the odds shortened on the first one you backed and pushed the second horse’s odds out slightly) You can do it either way if you leave an ask for some odds above the over round :) Any other betfairers out there tonight !? :biggrin:
Quote: from Slippy Blue on 11:32 pm on Feb. 23, 2002[br]Gents,<br>I`ve recently bought another greyhound, when it`s running at a meeting covered by BF , and it is likely to go off at a short price I`ll tell the trainer to stop it and lay it till the cows come home.<br>I think it`s called the laws of the jungle.<br>Survival of the fittest …..and all that.<br>
hehehe Let us know! Thing is, whats to stop someone saying, such and such won’t win and then they back the horse/dog/golfer etc at a ridiculously high price. Its all a bit dicey!
If its on good information, or even better you are the owner etc then its all good. Of course in the interests of fair play and decency I don’t condone any of this! :biggrin:
Slippy I’m up for a lay! :biggrin:
A bit dicey is right old stick.<br>I am in no way proud of that post, but that is what I will do when it is appropriate.<br>I think it`s called legal theft.<br>If the forumites told the truth about their exploits of fancied runners who could not win then I suspect one or two of us would give the game up.<br>Having said that there are clues out there , that punter has highlighted, that can help us on our merry way.:)
a good as clue as any for laying horses is that little old pricewise box in the post, get your finger along the top line and follow until it gets to LAD, then bring your finger down until you find a price highlighted in bold type, congrats you have now found a horse to lay.<br>It is not infallible, but it is definately better than laying lingfield favs because there is a lot of activity on betfair.
I was never under any other impression Slippy :) I went into horses thinking that that must go on, and more evidence continues to turn up that it does. Thats one reason I gave up backing horses, I think the form is good to a point, but in the end, the bookie wins or the dodgy owner/trainer etc, unless you are one of the 0.?% of punters that can beat them. IMO anyway, I’m sure many members here make good profits backing horses and for that I really admire you guys because it is very tough! No only are you battling the other animals but that over round too (which I personally feel is more than half the battle) !! Im fairly new in horse racing anyway, so I really don’t feel that confident in my inexperinced views!
Punter, the horses you quote were short priced favourites and presumably well tipped in the R. Post.<br>It would be interesting to know if there was any office<br>money for them on course.<br>Most of the serious money for the favourites at Betfair<br>is laid by bookies and if there was something going on<br>I’m sure the course reps. of the big three would hear about it and act accordingly – as they always have done.<br>Of course it’s always gone on, but now Betfair is providing us with the opportunity to see it in action.
Honestly Punter you sound like a betting shop mug blaming bent jockeys every time you call a race wrong.
I don’t have access to the betting details on the race at the moment as I’m not at work, so I’m speaking off the cuff here and am going on what has been said. But here are my thoughts for now:
1) In a typical race betfair would expect to match 50-75k on an even money shot. So there is nothing out of the ordinary about 40k being matched on Platinum Duke. The fact that it was an all weather claimer on a "busy" Saturday has nothing to do with it. We match as much on the all weather as we do on turf races and there were only three evenly spaced meetings today, so the race would have been the centre of most punters’ attention for 5-10 mins.
2) Punter seems to have come to the conclusion that a single person was responsible for the entire lay side of the bet. As I have said I don’t have access to the figures for now but this is almost certainly nonsense. He draws the conclusion from this faulty premise that the person knew the horse was going to be stopped and was a crook. I don’t think I will even deign this with a comment.
3) the disparity between what a race is worth and what is bet on it and the resulting temptation to cheat has existed long before betfair. We account for only about 5% of horse racing turnover in the UK. If someone knows an even money fav is dead in the water they do not need betfair to make more from it than the race is worth.
4) I didn’t see the race myself but going on sporting life comments it does seem an unlikely case for skullduggery – the horse frant ran.
5) The market at Lingfield can be quite weak and Platinum Duke was arguably backed down to a false price due to the offices backing it (the press association report less than 8k in big bets, including office money, forcing the horse in from 5/4 to evens). The Lingfield bookies were betting to an astonishing 131% in this race and much of that profit would have been built into the, arguably, falsely priced fav. Is it any surprise that betfair layers had to offer a decent premium above even money to get taken? It’s not a case of a cheat(s) laying a non trier, it’s a case of market forces and clued up betfair punters realising that the fav was a bad price and forcing the horse to trade at a price that was more reflective of his chances.
6) Punter mentions exclusive air trading at 4/5 the night before. This was almost certainly someone knowing that the horse would start a lot shorter than forecast and was therefore trying to back it. The horse was trading around the 1/2 mark during the 5-10 mins before the off.
glenn, i am surprised you even felt the need to reply, just because someone has bet aloser and had a moan. Lets get on to important things, like the continual mistakes made by the staff at betfair, today I had a position on an the fav in the hunter chase, which I was actively traded in running, all of a sudden, BANG the market is suspended<br>2] Cricket the other night advertised as in running I again had position which I would have liked to trade, market suspendeda nd NOT REOPENED at off.<br>These are both mistakes by staff at betfair at which no explaination has been forthcoming, any comment?
punter, you dont need a forum, you mistakenly thought that 40k matched was abnormal, i told you that 40k was not abnormal 2 hours ago, within the last hour a fellow forum member who actually works for betfair has tried to explain to you that 40k is not abnormal, and yet in the post immediately above this you still insist that it is abnormal. <br>There is no hope for you.
i now have horrible visions of 4 runner fields where all the owners have laid there horses and they’re all trying to lose! come to think of it that chase mccoy won where most of them fell twice can now be seen in a new light :)
Punter, for Gods sake , don`t spit the dummy.<br>It is exactly why TRF is getting a growing membership ,by people like you expressing your opinion.<br>Horses are stopped, it`s happened since the year dot.<br>We all know it, we see it all the time,It`s hardly Betfairs fault , is it ?<br>As for you not contributing…………don`t be silly
Kind regards .<br>Slippy
its like the old joke, a punter goes up to the bookie at Kempton and asks for 600/400 against the second fav in a 2 runner race, after accepting the bet the bookie then goes 7/4 so the punter has another 400 on, and the same thing happens again the bookie goes an even bigger price, eventualy the punter has had 5 grand on, and the bookie thinking to help the punter, tells him he is wasting his money as he owns the horse, to which the punter replies" be a long race then cos I own the other"
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.