March 26, 2007 at 18:05 #3602
I was reading a few posts on here and I looked at my own personal betting. I am your average punter, just past the legal age to bet and I have been gambling a year. When first began I would have a couple of quid on accumilators and I only ever had one big win.
But as I come into my second year gambling (I started at the start of the last flat season) I have sought out ways which I can have a small bet on a saturday and sometimes during the week and try to make some money.
I recently started keeping records of my bets and trying to look into the races more but I still lose more than I win. I hear about these betting programs on here and I wondered is there any for people on a small budget and do they all involve laying? I ask this because when placing bets I do it in a betting shop and not using betting exchanges.
The thing I love about betting is the chance of winning a big wad of money and I would have thought betting exchanges takes this feeling away, what do you think?
(Edited by Young Mick at 7:06 pm on Mar. 26, 2007)March 27, 2007 at 07:07 #86405dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
It is possible to make money over a short space of time with small stakes because of luck. That might seem like a silly statement but it isn’t .. luck works like that.
If you want to win big with small stakes and get a decent chance of a return you should look to structuring your bets like that.
Betting exchanges are good for punters because the markets are more efficient and you will get better prices. But you cant place accumulators. You wont win big on exchanges unless you have big bets .. its still good fun though .. <br>:biggrin:March 27, 2007 at 07:59 #86406
Hi Young Mick
keep thinking that you can string four nice winners together. There is no mileage in backing the horse with the obvious form chance at short prices. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Put a line through these and the no hopers and come up with an imaginative selection at a good price. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Then wait for that big pay day.
I suggest backing them in a Lucky15 with Betfred, you get treble the odds for one winner and the 4 winner bonuses are very good.
The best of luck from<br>carlisle
ps horses trained by the following are worth noting in handicaps.
G L Moore<br>K A Ryan<br>D Shaw<br>K R Burke<br>H Morrison<br>D K Ivory<br>J R Best<br>P J Makin
(Edited by carlisle at 9:53 am on Mar. 27, 2007)March 27, 2007 at 15:04 #86408
cheers thats very informative. I dont really know that much about the flat as i hjave always been bought up watching jump racing but i shall have a good go at this this year 😀March 27, 2007 at 15:46 #86411PompeteMember
- Total Posts 2391
Hi Young Mick…as a jumps fan I’ve always found the <br>Summer Jumps campaign a nice little area to try and exploit, although Formath will now be probably rolling his eyes and shaking his head at me LOL.
As for winning money the aforementioned is the man to take note from. But, a nice little bet that sometimes provides a decent return is a Three Horse Combination Forecast. Pick three horse to finish in any order 1st and 2nd. I normally do it to a 50p stake (6x50p Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£3.50 Total)
Anyhow…Good Luck mateMarch 27, 2007 at 17:40 #86412FormathMember
- Total Posts 1451
Hi Young Mick,
I am in complete agreement with Dave Jay and Carlisle with regard to your situation. You will need luck to come out ahead over the season and you should certainly bet using a permutation bet such as the Lucky 15.
As to selections on the Flat you could do worse than selecting from 2nd or 3rd favourites in the Racing Post betting forecast. Don’t touch juveniles until after the Guineas meeting at the earliest, stick to 4yo+ handicaps. Try to avoid over-large fields,say 16+, if possible.
Another possible bet is the computer straight forecast, taking well tipped runners from the first 3 in the betting forecast with the other 2 in the same betting forecast.
Finally, if you are betting on the book, a bet they don’t like is the each-way double. Two placed selections at 5/2 with 8 runners clears the liability, a bet to nothing.March 28, 2007 at 07:43 #86413
Hi Young Mick
let us know how you are getting on.
You might find this link useful/inspiring.<br>http://betcalculator.paddypower.com/index.php?bet=Lucky15&number=5
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>March 28, 2007 at 12:34 #86417
I will try these new types of bets, they sound intresting. I would like to one day be able to be a professional gambler with horses, but it takes a lot of starting capital and effort with research. But just wondering, do the professionals have contact with stables and thats how they get their tips or do they look through the racing post like people such as myself??
I will post how my first week with the new bets get on on sunday :D<br>
(Edited by Young Mick at 2:04 pm on Mar. 28, 2007)March 29, 2007 at 06:00 #86418
Hi Young Mick
a large amount of Capital is not that important, if you cannot win with fivers you will not win with grands.
Knowledge of how racing works, having a definite methods of bet selection and the discipline to stick to your plan are all that matter.
Don’t expect too much too soon, keep your stakes low and in about ten years you might be an over night success.
Also study trainers and not horses.
(Edited by carlisle at 7:03 am on Mar. 29, 2007)March 29, 2007 at 11:57 #86419dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
For me, I like the 3 horse bets.
3 win doubles and an e/w treble to get your stakes back .. 5 points invested.
Stick to races with 9 to 12 runners.
.. I got one of these up a couple of years ago and went straight to Spain with the winings and I’m still talking about it .. :biggrin:
If you want to be super greedy place boxed bets. These are when you have 3 good races, pick 2 or 3 from each race for trebles.
Race A<br>Horse 1 + 2<br>Race B<br>Horse 3 + 4<br>Race C<br>Horse 5 + 6
8 win trebles. (2 x 2 x 2) 16 pts if ew.May 6, 2007 at 08:03 #86420barryparryMember
- Total Posts 3
Hello Young Mick,
I have read all of the replies on here and whilst I appreciate that all of the betting advice was given with good intentions I would urge you as a new punter to consider the following:
The lucky 15 is a mugs bet. The reason that the bookmakers print special slips for it should indicate that they love this kind of trade. The bet is made up as follows:<br>4 singles<br>6 doubles<br>4 trebles<br>1 four-fold.
Now, let’s consider what has happened to your bet after your first selection loses. You are left with the following:
3 singles<br>3 doubles<br>1 treble
You are now down to seven bets from a possible fifteen. Your one loser has cost you more than half of your bet! This is complete suicide to your betting bank.
Moving on to the straight forecast bet. Again this is a complete con. The odds on offer to you as a punter have an overround built into them for the bookmakers profit. These odds are then used as the basis (plus a few other factors) to calculate the forecast return, but a further deduction is made to the odds making it a more attractive proposition for the bookies. A further factor that makes the f/c a bad bet is that you are relying on two horses in the same race to perform to expectation. This is usually hard enough to do for one!
Like I said, I’m not trying to deride the people who posted the advice with the best of intentions, just trying to give you something to think about.
OK, so what would I recommend?
Win singles and play within a strict money management schedule. Play level stakes about 2% of bank until it has increased by about 20% or so then increase it to 2% of the new total. Don’t alter the stakes to 2% of the bank for every bet as this will lose you money (mathematical fact).
Finally, you need to look at racing differently from others. If you always reach the same conclusions as the rest (ie fav backing) you are destined to lose! You need to follow your own path.
Read books on betting too. Think college education, there is a wealth of knowledge out there. Some of it is rubbish. You need to be selective in what you accept from what you read.
Good luck mate.
Baz.May 6, 2007 at 08:30 #86421seabirdParticipant
- Total Posts 2924
Welcome to the forum, Barry.:cool:
ColinMay 6, 2007 at 10:23 #86422barryparryMember
- Total Posts 3
Reading my message back I hope I haven’t come across as some sort of patronising know-it-all!
I’ve learned a few things the (very) hard way and just trying to share a bit.
BazMay 6, 2007 at 10:57 #86424
It seems as though Young Mick has found a girlfriend orÃƒâ€šÃ‚Â something. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â He will be back, no doubt.
I agree with your detailed and impressive posting. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The reason I suggested that he tries a few Lucky15’s was because it’s very unlikely he will understand what it takes to bet like a pro. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â He could have dropped very lucky, particularly if he had followed a few of the trainer’s that I listed. He did want a big "wad".
For the vast majority of punters Lucky15’s are mug bets. From the bookies point of view losers will lose a lot more money. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â If you are a winner you will win more.
My approach would be to reduce the stake to 1/10th the usual and then forget about the bet. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â If you have a good day you’re covered for a big payout+15%. (That would be something to remember and talk about). With BetFred just one winner pays treble the odds, Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â a 5/1 would return your stake+1.
As for forecasts, I think backing a danger to your main selection as a straight Exacta is worth doing. We all back a lot of seconds, don’t we.
ps "I have all the time in the world to work on joint projects"
(Edited by carlisle at 7:44 am on May 7, 2007)May 6, 2007 at 11:33 #86426PompeteMember
- Total Posts 2391
It seems as though Young Mick has found a girlfriend or something.
Perhap’s Young Mick’s Lucky15 (+15% bonus) came in and he is currently to be found; flying around in his new helicopter sorting cocaine from the erect nipples of his new Page 3 girlfriend. :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
I know I would be…welcome Barry btw, excellent post.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.