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I wouldn’t be suprised if KYC has a lot to do with it. That though may be because a lot of the heavy layers are the ones that have something to hide.
Another possibility is maybe there’s a migration away from betfair to lower commission sites like BetDaq (and maybe even backandlay ;) ). I think they really need to drop their commission to remain competitive. Betfair’s only real advantage is their liquidity, if they lose that they’re just the most expensive exchange on the market.
I’d ask the same question about the BF forum. I pop in to browse around every day and it must be a week since I saw a single thread that was worth reading LOL That place has become a joke.
<br>Or it could just be that at this time of year, after paying for Xmas and putting down the deposit for the summer package tour, most punters haven’t got the funds in the bank to play with.
Can’t say I’ve noticed much difference or had any problems getting on in the last week, but most of my trading is in the last 5 minutes anyway.
AP
I’ve got another theory as to why the early market has much less liquidity …… the robots !
For quite some time I’ve priced up races throughout the evening and early morning allowing people to have a half-decent bet albeit at prices which I consider ‘stingy’. This strategy used to work pretty well – I took quite a lot of bets and managed to bet about 80% of them back at a bigger price as the racetime approached. These days I can’t be bothered because of the robots ……..
Basically I got fed up with being topped by a robot that was only offering to take a couple of pounds. If I put up an offer to take £50 @ 10 (for example), within seconds a robot would offer to take £2 – £5 @ 10.5. This meant I was never at the front of the queue and able to take the first few pounds of ‘mug’ money. Profit margins dropped as I was invariably only taking money on ‘live’ horses and it became a struggle to make a regular profit. For this reason I now rarely bother and concentrate my efforts on the last 10 minutes before the off instead. I’d guess that quite a few other early layers have stopped offering prices too.
I think that this could well be the reason that liquidity has dropped, or at leasty partially responsible for the decrease. Robots who only lay £2-£5 are a pain in the backside as far as I’m concerned and probably very bad for Betfair. Hopefully their owners will give up as more and more people learn how to trick them into laying silly prices.
(Edited by Nick Hatton at 3:12 pm on Jan. 9, 2005)
Bots I don’t particularly like either. I would have thought it was in the long term interests of any exchange to try and discourage them (i.e. by looking at activity patterns etc) but they (or at least betfair) seem to actively encourage them by licensing their API at a cost.
Quote: from Ian Davies on 2:09 pm on Jan. 9, 2005[br]TDK,
None of what you say is in dispute – but my point is that, at best prices, all exchange books are overbroke and it’s a lot harder to take bets in size on horsdes you’ve figured out will drift than it is to take them on steamers (leaving you with a bad position).
To summarise, betting on horses to lose at an exchange is a practice fraught with difficulties and, IMO, this will lead to a downward correction of the value offered in such markets over time.
(Edited by Ian Davies at 2:13 pm on Jan. 9, 2005)<br>
Crikey Chief, you’re not still banging that drum :o
At worst prices all exchange books are massively overround – so what? There won’t be a downward correction in value as arbers will simply move in when percentages are going too high and push the matched prices back towards 100%.
What will happen, and does seem to be happening, is that betting will become more ‘nitty’: 100% books will be available but only for small money at any one point in time. This is a natural defense mechanism to highly volatile markets and the existence of bots – there’s just no money to be made playing the hero on horse racing these days.
The other problems come from KYC, an unlevel playing field and the BAGSification fo racing. KYC affects all players far more than the turnover figures suggest – it might only take a small percentage of turnover out of the game but much of it is the cream, the dead money from the losers and the non price sensetive ‘convenience’ bettors.
The unlevel playing field has become increasingly obvious over the last year or so. This extends from inside info to people betting in-running from the course to people using API technology. What’s worse is that a green light seems to have been given to the insider traders after recent hearings. I know of at least one big player who packed it in after he found out that the owner of the horse he backed (and whipped round at the start) had lumped on an opponent.
This is also a bad time of year for racing – all weather offal makes very little appeal. I think there’s been a complacency within Betfair about the racing programme, the attitude being whatever is laid on they will get theirs. The result has been the bookies dictating the racing programme unchallenged and much of the stuff served up is of no interest to anyone but betting shop addicts and the blacksmiths of this world.
Hoewverm in areas where I reckon it’s eas ymnoey for the bookies
You been at the Asahi Chief?
I too think the KYC as a lot to do with the current blip!!,i know many of my freinds who have accounts at Betfair feel disgruntled by the way Betfair handle the situation (ps…these are sportsbettors and not racing!!)….ie you provide them what they request and then you still need to chase up the re-opening of the account,their support department appears extremely amateurish to say the least!!
I`ve always thought Exchanges where ideal for Asian h`cap betting,however,as the likes of Betfair refuse to discount they have found it difficult to make a serious impact (not enough liquidity for the big rollers ).
Betting exchanges in the UK have little competition from the Bookmakers with regards to Football betting,with traditional companies like Ladbrokes thinking its normal to bet 111.2% on a premier league football match the scope is pretty obvious,even companies like Premierbet of Bet365 who bet to 108% hardly make for competivity (Bookmakers with a Scandanavian/German customerbase bet major leagues to 105-107%).
IMO………..Betting exchanges like Betfair will struggle for liquidity if they don`t look further ahead,their `´poker room“ is hardly unique so they would do well to focus on keeping the client base on the upward curve,i would suggest discounting where neccessary and a better support would be a good starting point!!<br>
(Edited by Tony25 at 11:13 am on Jan. 10, 2005)
I consider myself to be a bottom feeder, mug punter, convenience bettor, or what ever you want to call it. For every grown up, or big punter, or Arb player, there has to be around 1000 (?) punters like me to make the exchange work. I personally don’t use betfair anywhere as near as much as I did twelve months ago and there are several reasons for this. These are the reasons that I don’t use Betfair ….
The New Site<br>This was a disaster and didn’t interface with the software we have at work. The New Site generated error reports through the company firewall and the company have blocked the Betfair site. So, anyone who works for the same company (?? Users from 27,000 people) cannot bet Monday to Thursday.<br>What was also annoying about the New Site, was their Engineering Department tried to blame ME, because they had made their site incompatible .. !!
Bots<br>I don’t like the idea of pitching my wits against one of these. They are marketed as a must have for the smart gambler, so what does that say to people who don’t have them … ?? As people have become more aware of their existence and what they actually do, it all starts to have the feeling of a big scam.
Early Markets.<br>These are a real joke. I’m going to have two win bets today, I’ll have them with Tote on my account at the SP. These are both favourites and I will get a better price at SP than I will on Betfair at lunchtime (if I could get access). And I won’t pay commission if I win! Some people have got more to do with their lives than sit in front of a screen and wait for a price to appear.
Commission Rate.<br>5% is too high. If you don’t bet loads of money, it’s always 5%. I can get 1% at backandlay, so why use Betfair and be 4% worse off?
KYC<br>I don’t bet enough or have enough interest to go through the rigmarole of doing this. They haven’t asked me yet, but if they do I won’t bother. It’s intrusive, nosey and a bit of a cheek, imo. I’m only having a bit of fun, not masterminding a coup, military or otherwise.
Between getting stung by early prices, messed around by Betfair and getting ripped off by bots, this is one little piece of liquidity that’s blipped off forever.<br>
Since Ian is probably too modest to mention it, I feel I should point out that by going to Betfair, you are actually 400 % worse off…
How do you know it’s a bot offering the 2 quid and not some clueless small player? It strikes me that any automated program which just tops the best offer is doomed to failure in the long run.<br>On an unrelated point while at Leopardstown yesterday I was standing in front of 2 screens showing ATR and the course coverage- the delay is even worse than I thought, at about 5 seconds! You need to be very careful punting in running as I know at least two people exploiting this difference on course in the UK. They get their biggest draws in close finishes, imagine the difference 5 seconds can make sometimes.
I have had my account suspended on Betfair and I’m pretty miffed I have to supply all the documentation. I have an uncanny feeling they could use the information maliciously.
All I want are my funds back.<br>Anybody succeeded?
Betting exchange liquidity and time delay being exploited by on-course sharks were highlighted by my thread last July.
It was dismissed by the big chief.
True Barry, it was and well noted by me .. ;)
LGR, I haven’t had my account suspended yet but I would suggest that anyone with money tied up in that site should draw it down on a daily basis. I do, because I won’t be supplying KYC information and I’d be well upset if they had a few quid of mine held as ransom.
Ian, commission is all important, to me. I reckon that if you’ve got an edge at all, then it won’t be very much. The cheaper you can bet the greater is the chance of getting a good run for your money. But, what this punter wants first and foremost is fairness which includes transparency, honesty and the feeling that your not being cheated.<br>:cool:
Mr.Davies,
I am a licenced bookmaker operating on-course,
I will repeat the so called sharp practices one at a time because they fall into my famous grey areas,
I notice a 6/4 chance bolt to post at thousand mile an hour,
I know this has not been shown on any t.v. (too busy with interviews from presenters)
quickly offer 3.5 (5/2) £4K wait until matched then go same price on board,
is that sharp practice.
not using betfair every time now better deals about,
<br>perhaps lay and back.
presume first example is o.k. then,
<br>can lay 1.10 horse clear at last
see it make an absolute horlicks(cant resist horsey cliches)
quickly instruct lay(via direct link) horse recovers to finish second,
still o.k.
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