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No way the 11/8 would get snapped up. He would be killed in the landslide before laying a bet
Here’s my preview for the Betfair Chase:
BEEF OR SALMON – Normally has a pop over hurdles prior to tackling the big boys over fences. Running for the third time in this event after finishing second to Kingscliff and Kauto Star respectively in ’05 and ’06. Conditions in his favour but is an 11yo now and will find a few too good.
EXOTIC DANCER – Well beaten at Aintree latest on seasonal debut. Has always needed a pipe-opener and will be closer to Kauto Star today. But twice finished behind that horse under similar conditions last season (King George and Gold Cup) and will probably find him too good again.
KAUTO STAR – Lost nothing in defeat giving 14lbs and beaten 1 1/2L by course specialist Monet’s Garden on seasonal return. Has great record under these conditions and is the one they all have to beat under capable deputy Sam Thomas.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN – Rounded off a fine 06/07 campaign with victory in the Arkle Chase. Course winner who is certain to improve for step up to three miles over fences and will appreciate conditions. But has never won on seasonal return and therefore worth opposing against this calibre of opposition.
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT – Nothing to shout about over hurdles but has been a revelation over fences thus far. Completed a four-timer when winning a poor Grade 1 event at Punchestown end of last season. Jumps well and goes on any surface but on all known form will need to improve.
OLLIE MAGERN – Woefully out of form in 2006 but won well on return when accounting for State Of Play in Charlie Hall. Rarely follows up (last back-to-back victories came in 2004) and not one to trust.
TURPIN GREEN – Defeated Exotic Dancer on seasonal debut last year and beaten just 5L into third by Kauto Star in Gold Cup. Runs very well fresh (has won on seasonal return last three years) and has the talent to go close but is still something of an unknown quantity.
CONCLUSION – KAUTO STAR should return to winning ways with question marks over the remainder of the field. TURPIN GREEN ran him closer than most in the Gold Cup last March but appears to be an enigmatic sort. Old foe EXOTIC DANCER is selected to be the main danger and they are sure to meet again in the King George nest month.
Nice preview.
Personally I think Ruby may have given Monet’s Garden too much rope at Aintree and gave the horse a bit much to do (Maybe thats because he didn’t travel quite as well but I still think he let MG get away from him). If he’s come on for the run and Thomas gets it right I can’t see the star being beaten.
jesus
I dont usually bet at those prices but 11/8 Kauto would be snapped up
I think you’ll find that’s a theoretical 100% book, which means he’d want bigger than those odds to have a bet, but wouldn’t want to lay the prices.
Based on his book, he’ll have to back Exotic Dancer and Beef Or Salmon, both of whom trade at twice his theoretical value odds.
Appreciate the compliment, Aragorn.
Just had a fairly substantial bet on KS at 10/11 (he’s worth a tenner
). Available at EVENS in places – quite a staggering price. I think this horse will be well backed in the morning at those prices.Looking ahead to the KG, My Way De Solzen is available at 9/2 for this event. I think he’ll be well beaten at Haydock (lay, lay, lay!!) and therefore drift in the market for the Kempton feature. However, this is a high-class animal who could be good enough to lift the Blue Riband in March – take advantage of any knee-jerk reaction by the bookies.
Turpin Green is available at 40/1 for the KG. He’s capable of running well in the Betfair and his price could tumble with a good run.
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Why Charlie Swan runs Offshore Account here rather than in the Hennessy beggars belief- especially after putting all us Ante-Post punters away a few weeks ago- at best he’ll hunt up the principals and bugger his handicap mark.
Tom Segal has similar reservations in today’s Post, but Charlie Swan nails that theory with his comment in the same paper:
“If we finish 5th or 6th, I’d be happy, as he should come on for the run.
If I’d got a run into him, he would have gone to the Hennessy next week instead, but we won’t go there now and wait for Christmas”Looking very testing there and only going to get worse. The Beef couldn’t do it could he? The 80 layers on betfair on braver than me.
He’s certainly gonna like conditions David, but would need the market leaders to be well hindered by conditions to win wouldn’t he???
Looking very testing there and only going to get worse. The Beef couldn’t do it could he? The 80 layers on betfair on braver than me.
A staying-on second I reckon
He got a clear shot, but he just wasn’t quite good enough
cracking race and worth the entrance imo
A cracking site to see 2 of the best chasers of the last 20 years going clear on the bridle.
Kauto Star proved his doubters wrong – thankfully. Classy performance.
One thing I learned today is that My Way De Solzen is not the threat to Kauto Star as his supporters would have us believe. The horse quite clearly doesn’t stay and does not possess the ability of the Gold Cup winner.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’d have thought Exotic Dancer’s run today shows the perils of writing off a horse based on his seasonal reappearance.
What it shows imo David is ratings alone don’t tell the whole story
btw, i get 177 for winner
MWDS will surely now be aimed at the QM Champion Chase rather than the Gold Cup. Exposed as a non-stayer today.
Great credit to the front two. I still feel they’ve left a little to work on with KS and I’m very much looking orward to seeing how the season unfolds with him. ED could improve again though and he may have caught up a little this year.
Fascinating.
and in the market’s case ED alone
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