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Buckers, quite like your shout for Go Dante, I’d say he’s a fair price.
I’ll stick with old regular Faivoir though. After swerving his first three runs of the season, I bet him last time, and he disappointed me a little, but happy to go with him again. Jockey is a complete unknown, but on the plus side, he surely can’t run as badly as he did in this last year, and at least the ground is a lot more suitable.
Two others from my original shortlist, Doddiethegreat, and Norman Fletcher, both make it here too, but I can’t split them, so I’ll have a backup bet on Yorksea, with the very obvious risks attached. The lions share of that bet will be once/if he jumps off
Faivoir 66’s
Yorksea 100’s
Both EW 7PlsIt was mentioned earlier that our handicapper could watch films of the favourites runs in France. Well this is his last run and conditions were terrible as you’ll see, so not a race to draw too many conclusions from:
https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2023-06-17/R3/C8
In general, the better horses in France don’t run in handicaps. Ocastle Des Mottes was top weight in that race, off a mark equal to 124 in the UK. So in effect, he’s won a 4yo only 0-125 handicap over 2M 2F – and he’s been raised 4.5kgs for that win. The unknown factor is how much Mr Mullins might have improved him for his new owners.
I wouldn’t call Heidi Palin (Favoir’s pilot) an “unknown.”
She’s been riding for a while now, not only in Points, but in Hunters’ Chases under rules.
She won twice (Hereford and Fakenham) on Bennys King last season and has ridden him at Taunton and Wetherby (five days ago) last Saturday.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think I´ve backed Favoir every time in this last year. I will be loyal here at this big price, especially in this soft conditions.
Favoir 50/1 EW
I’ll say one thing for the ex-French Onion Soup Monster – the chances of it getting the utterly desperate ground that apparently suits it have become somewhat enhanced.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"There is absolutely zero chance that anyone backing ODM has even the faintest idea of what the form is worth.
If this lad is coming over from France and running for anyone bar Mullins he’s a 16/1 shot. You’ve had your pants pulled down and can stand in the corner with your dunces hat on if you’re happy to take these stupid prices about it.
Has beaten a list of complete unknowns, in between being pulled up, must have heavy ground and taking a massive step up in class. There’s one born every minute!
Sorry but I can’t have Favoir for love nor money. Skelton to my eyes is planning another Cheltenham run to replicate last year. Favoir will be either beaten a distance or pulled up and then dropped a couple of pounds for the County.
I’m currently standing on the hurdles track about halfway up the run in (ok, that’s not entirely accurate – I’m sat on my lazy boy in my living room at home half an hour away) but it’s RAINING outside, I can hear it, and TC’s rash words may yet come back to haunt him.
“More SOUP, sir?”
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Most of the field have got a confirmed liking for soft/heavy Ian. Maybe not to the extent of the garlic munching gelding but he’s not got anything like the form they have.
And those others are more than double his price!
“If this lad is coming over from France and running for anyone bar Mullins he’s a 16/1 shot”.
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True TC, but no other trainer has the record of Mullins with this type of horse… So that has to be taken into consideration when assessing what price you’re willing to take.
One thing is for sure, this horse – trained by Mullins – is no 16/1 shot.
Value Is EverythingI just think that, while many horses are suited by Good to Soft or Soft ground, very few thrive in Heavy ground.
And I’ve got a feeling it might be outright Heavy at Newbury on Saturday.
This horse is proven in such conditions plus there’s the intriguing fact he’s been given an Irish 139 (sometimes worth as much as 149 over here) but only 133 over here.
Maybe the BHA are right and he’s on a shocking mark in Ireland, hence coming here more in hope than expectation as there’s zero chance of being competitive in Ireland, or maybe the answer is somewhere in the middle of the differing assessments.
But maybe, just maybe, the Irish assessor has got it right, he’s absolutely thrown in here and, what’s more, he’s got his ground and few others will truly relish it, plus Mullins might have been able to improve him too.
It gives the race a fascinating extra dimension in my book.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’ll be run at a good clip you suspect even with the going taken into account, Lookaway and Knickerbockerglory only have one way of going and Lookaway has proven his stamina over further now and they’ll both handle the ground fine. No hiding place for a few of these, could be quite grim viewing at the finish.
I’ve changed my way of thinking with the big field and ground and having dismissed Lookaway and Iberico Lord beforehand, they are right back in the equation now along with Knickerbockerglory and a few others, there are enough who will like the ground who could be well enough handicapped to trouble this Mullins horse. Its actually made the race easier to look at, I suspect all of Nicky’s other runners prefer better ground along with Tellherthename who looked a potential danger, although to be fair Luccia ran a decent enough race in the Greatwood to suggest she’ll be fine just isn’t ideal being the top weight in a race like this.
With Warwick off i’m mob handed in this.
Lookaway 12s
Aurigny Mill 14s
Ito Ditto 33s
And a small each way punt on
Yorksea at 100s, 1st 6 places.Best of luck to all
Has to be a negative townend hasnt came over for the fav, i dont imagine winning a listed race on ADV is of any interest if he thought the fav would win this, one eye on the jockeys championship for sure, but this is a better pot
Id rather back the other two mullins horses at 16s & 110s
But i do agree with you ginge regarding the fav, given connections hes no 16/1 shot with ground to suit, just townend not coming is putting me off
I’ve added some 66/1 on Favoir. He has to bounce back to form, but with the jockey booking he is 4 pounds below his winning mark in the County Hurdle last season and he gets his ground.
Also added Lookaway. Second in the Greatwood and second in the Challow Hurdle looks very good and he isn’t much higher in the weights. Finally have to add Onlyamatteroftime. I just can’t get that image of him travelling so well in the Greatwood out of my head. Just before he ran out. Only a matter of time he will deliver.
Lookaway 10/1
Onlyamatteroftime 14/1
Favoir 66/1 EWGood luck all.
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