- This topic has 75 replies, 30 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
I’ll certainly be backing Long Run if he runs. I can’t forget him getting stuffed in the Paddy Power off 158 FTO, before beating Kauto Star et al 12 lengths hacking up in the King George.
Can’t see Long Run winning this, surely this is another stepping stone to his main target on Boxing day. After his below par run, it looks as though they need another prep before the King George.
I can see Silviniaco Conti winning this, I really think he would have won the gold cup had he not fallen, was going by far the best, and although Bobs Worth outstayed the rest, it would have been too late to catch S Conti.
He won this race impressively last year, may well take the King George as he will be favourite if beating Dynaste and Long Run convincingly, before going off favourite for the Gold Cup and winning that.
Take the prices now I reckon…..5/2 for this…..6/1 for the KG and 8/1 for the Gold Cup.Don’t understand how the bookies price him and Bobs Worth at nearly the same price for this 9/4 – 5/2, yet SC is a lot bigger for the GC.
Simlarly, SC 5/2 for this and Dynaste 6/1, yet Dynaste slightly shorted for the KG???Any predictions on what the going is likely to be?? Proper Soft probably if all this rain arrives tomorrow.
SHL
Any predictions on what the going is likely to be?? Proper Soft probably if all this rain arrives tomorrow.
SHL
Bobs Worth has a hell of an impressive strike rate and it is worth bearing in mind he has only had 10 starts over the jumps, with 8 wins, a second and a third to show for it. Silviniaco Conti, although younger, has run more times than him, as has Cue Card. Bob went up the ratings by about 20lbs last year and although he doesn’t always travel that comfortably, he always seems to find more for pressure, hence his impressive success rate.
I was bitterly disappointed by Long Run’s opening effort of the season and although he will come on this time out I am not sure it will be enough in this much tougher race. For his tender years he’s had a busy time and some tough outings. I’d worry he might regress this season.
Cue Card is a horse I like, although not to the Steeplechasing extent that I’m loitering about his box 8 hours a day with carrots and polo mints. I can’t buy the Jockey’s thinking that he’s suddenly a three miler. I didn’t think he’d get home in the King George and although the ground was bad that day, he still has to make that step up in distance in tough looking company if all the main contenders turn up. I think he’ll run out of gas.
Silviniaco Conti was still there when falling in the Gold Cup and although you could argue he might have won, I am sure he would have come off the bridle a reasonable way from home and I reckon Bobs Worth would have been hard to beat on that run in. He is short enough for me, although he is much respected.
An earlier poster has opined that Bob doesn’t have the pace for Haydock but it is worth remembering that he beat Cue Card over 2 and a half miles at Newbury on good ground. He did win narrowly that day and was receiving 7lbs but it was still an effort that many Gold Cup winners would have struggled to match.
It’s Bob for me at 9/4 or better and he’ll be as short as a carrot for the Gold Cup if he wins.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tidal Bay for me.2nd in 2010, arguably in the form of his life at 12, won’t go down without a fight. I like Dynaste but think he’ll get outclassed by these. I was disappointed with Conti at Aintree and think his jumping will be put to the test more this year than last year when only jut getting the better of Long Run despite his sketchy jumping. BW may not like the track. Others won’t get a look in.
It’s hard to say just how good Bobs Worth is. His trainer has always insisted that in his two defeats in 11/12, the horse was far from right and NJH was despairing of getting him back in form for Cheltenham.
We know he’s an exceptional Cheltenham horse, and like many Cheltenham lovers (Denman springs immediately to mind) Newbury sits high on his enjoyment list too.
Haydock is tighter, but that long straight should play to his strengths and NJH must be happy with him to risk him at such a level so early – that in itself says a lot.
I have a lump on Cue Card at 12s and a smaller lump on BW at 9/4. Were CC not in the race, I’d back BW with plenty confidence.
As for the weather, the met office have the last 3 days of the week as bright, dry and cold. Ground should be good to soft at worst, I’d have thought.
I rarely go racing these days. My last outing was Frankel’s Juddmonte, but the Betfair is worth going a long way to see, and I plan to be there. I remember another trip to Haydock from many years ago, (’79, I think) when I headed south to see Silver Buck beat Night Nurse half a length in an enthralling 3-runner contest for the Edward Hanmer Chase (Border Incident, trained by the unfortunately named Capt Richard Head, made up the field – a very talented horse in his own right).
The track has changed a bit since then, with the stiff drop fences long gone, but I’m looking forward to seeing these fine horses on Saturday. I can think of quite a few Gold Cups featuring worse fields.
This really does look a great race.
Bobs Worth
has a terrific record left-handed and won first time out in Hennessey last year and then off a long break in Cheltenham Gold Cup. Probably won’t have a Christmas objective so this his main Early season target. Genuine and consistent. The negative is will this be enough of a stamina test? Only one shower forecast between now and start time and ground currently described as officially "good-soft". That’s if the official is accurate, is Haydock after all. In any other year on real good-soft around a sharp 3 miles – I’d definitely be backing against Bobs Worth. However, drainage improvements mean this is run over an extra furlong on the outer, Flat course. So stamina is more likely to play a part if a true pace.
Cue Card
would’ve been my main bet had it been the old distance/track. I don’t judge his stamina on the King George, held up instead of racing prominently and made an almighty blunder at the first. Probably settles and jumps better with a clear view. Wasn’t stopping at the end of a truly run Ryanair and deserves another chance at 3m+. Though must be said a testing race (very soft ground and/or fast pace) may not be to his advantage. It may be possible for him to dictate a slowish pace, The Giant Bolster usually races prominently as does Long Run these days, but both don’t need to. Front-runner Roi Du Mee coming over may be to the detriment of Cue Card’s chance. Even so worth a saver.
Dynaste
is an interesting young chaser. Went particularly well at this time last year, but has missed a prep race at Wetherby and connections have seemed in two minds where to run since. Obvious potential, but needs to improve an awful lot in one go to beat this top class established field.
You need to go back a very long way to find
Long Run
‘s best form. Win in Gold Cup (even by allowing for below form Nicholls greats) probably over-rated at time. First class first success in King George and second to Kauto in same race. However, below best in last two Gold Cups and even in winning another King George. Very best efforts racing in ear plugs. Would not be tried in headgear etc if he was showing the same brilliant best at home. Having said that, has been in the frame in many top races until last time. Even on recent form had form to win easily on reappearance and going well before a bad blunder seemed to effect him. Possibly amiss and something to prove now. Not one for me unless ear plugs are reapplied.
Tidal Bay
looks a reformed character nowadays and has some form right up with the best of these. Comes out the best horse at the weights of last year’s Hennessy, chasing home Bobs Worth. But 12 years old now, so far less likely to improve than other principles. Connections may have targeted this thinking it would be easier than giving weight at Newbury. It may be they’re having second thoughts.
Prince De Beauchene
may be the Wylie representative. Bit to prove at this level and 10 years old, but is lightly raced and Mullins does not usually tilt at windmills. Could improve a little, but even if needed reappearance 23 lengths is a lot to make up on Roi Du Mee.
Roi Du Mee
is a very interesting contender if coming over. Impossible to know just what he achieved last time out, when making all in the JNWine. All rivals probably well below best, 13 lengths in hand over ageing Sizing Europe. Looked greatly flattered; however, at around 20/1 may be worth a small wager if ground remains on the soft side/still that price after final declarations.
Silviniaco Conti
is the first string of Nicholls yard. Won this in 2012 by 2½ and 4½ lengths from Long Run and The Giant Bolster under level weights. Then improved, giving latter 4 lbs and an easy 7 lengths beating in Denman Chase. Went to Cheltenham on the up and still going well (about as well as Sir Des Champs) when coming down. Bobs Worth under pressure at the time. In my opinion the Nicholls horse would not have won. However, this race is (unless a deluge/overly strong pace) unlikely to require as much stamina. After his fall was unusually under pressure some way out at Aintree. Forget his final start and the fall – you get a very progressive animal. At the moment I’d rate him favourite over Bobs Worth. Main bet.
Value Is EverythingNice write-up, as ever, Ginger.
I couldn’t make up my mind about Silv Conti all last season and still can’t. I suspect soft ground is quite important to him in that it lets him maintain a cruising pace without his rivals being able to get away from him.
He looks fine in control of a race but when others start bossing it and upping the pace, I’m not sure he can cope with it.
Saturday will tell us an awful lot about these:
Will BW be sharp enough not to get too far behind early?
Has Long Run recovered?
Will Cue Card get the trip?
Can Dynaste compete at this level?
Is SC top class or just a few pounds below?
Can Tidal Bay jump well enough to stay in contention?A fascinating race featuring the first 5 in the Gold Cup betting. Roll on Saturday.
I expect Bobs Worth to be fully primed for this race, he always finds plenty at the business end of the race, he had enough speed to beat Cue Card and Rock on Ruby over shorter distances. For those who like to bet in running you may get a bigger price if he hits a flat spot with 3 fences to jump, SC will probably travel very well and trade shorter in running. If Bobs Worth is fit and well there can be only one winner, his gold cup price will halve to 6/4 if he wins. Worth doubling up with MTOY @ 7/4 for the Fighting Fifth hurdle.
I think Conti’s adept on both Good or Soft, as his form suggests. ( Al Ferof, Grands Crus and Neptune Collonges similar horses by Dom Alco )
Came off the pace at Aintree and Wetherby when hammering talented horses. Led against Long Run on his seasonal debut, then tracked and kicked away at Newbury. Good form if slightly disappointing on Good ground again at Aintree in the spring.The going is currently Soft but i expect it to be quite dead.
Bobs Worth
Brilliant if not dazzling. Likes left handed courses, goes well fresh. Genuine as they come and the best horse in the field. Slight concerns about the yards form and they’ve admitted they’re behind on where they’d like to be. Now would be the time to beat the champion stayer.
Cue Card
Would have gone in for him had it been Good ground but on Soft i think there are more likely natural stayers in the two favourites. Should set the pace and Tizzard will be looking to get a breather in, i’d have thought. Connections obviously believe he’s a more mature horse and with that comes more stamina resources to draw on. Definite chance in the King George if it’s decent ground but i think he’s down the podium this weekend.
Long Run
We’ll never know how good this horse could have been because i think a better jockey, of which Henderson has a few options, could offer greater assistance in the saddle. As Joe rightly identified way back when, the horse has jumping problems which appear to be back related and a better balanced jockey should help in that regard. I often think SWC gets too far back in the saddle over fences.
The horse has fitness to prove after that huge mistake and subsequent dirty scope a few weeks ago and it’s likely that this once precocious French horse is on the decline, though still retaining top class form.Roi Du Mee
A boat in this company. Seems to prefer it right handed. I don’t trust the form of his last race and heavy ground defeats of tankers like Pandorama aren’t up to the standard of his rivals here.
Silviniaco Conti
Has an excellent chance to win a successive Betfair Chase. Flat left handed tracks with galloping straights…ideal. Just depends on Bobs Worth. I think he might get outpaced turning in but stay on down the long, punishing straight
Should be a cracking race.
Fair summary, Mark.
So many imponderables here, not least how
Silviniaco Conti
and Cue Card and maybe even Roi Du Mee react to each other in making the pace.
As mentioned in an earlier post, I’m still not sure what Silv Conti is made of. He could yet be a top notcher. But my suspicion is he needs everything to go right. When the pressure is applied by top class opponents, my hunch is that he will crack.
Cue Card
has the engine to head the field from the outset, I’ve no doubt about that, but JT will have to conserve enough energy to see the trip out, so he will need to get his pacemaking spot on. Neither of the other pair are particularly headstrong, so there’s a fair chance they’ll sit just behind CC. If a battle does develop up front, I think all three will suffer for it.
If Joe decides to try and drop Cue Card in, then he’ll need to get him settled early which might prove a tough job at that trip, burning energy and taking concentration away from jumping. My feeling is that he has got to go on at a pace that lets the horse relax in front and keeps the others on their mettle. They cannot afford to let Cue Card get away, but if JT gets his pace right, it will put pressure on the jumping of Tidal Bay and Long Run. It might also see
Bobs Worth
being niggled along at times to stay with them. Geraghty won’t be too bothered if he turns in with four or five in front of him. He will want to be just picking them off one by one up that long straight. And here, the focus turns again to Joe Tizzard and his pace judgement. If he has got it spot on, he should have enough in hand to hold off Bobs Worth on the run-in.
I’d like to see the admirable
Long Run
bounce back and run really well, although he won’t be able to afford errors and it’s a rare outing when he doesn’t start dragging that back end through the birch. It’s too soon to write him off but if he runs way below form again on Saturday, I think it might be an indication he’s just had too many hard battles for such a young horse.
I love old
Tidal Bay
whose been blunder-free in his last three steeplechases. It will be a sight indeed if he and Bobs Worth are coming with late runs approaching the last. Looking back, I was surprised to see that only 1 of his 39 runs has been at Haydock, 2nd to Imperial Commander in the 2010 Betfair.
I’m not a
Dynaste
fan, and think him over-rated.
The Giant Bolster
is thoroughly exposed now and runs off exactly the same mark as he did in this a year ago when beaten 7 lengths in a poorer race. And he’s still susceptible to the odd blunder.
Roi Du Mee
, as Mark mentioned, has spent most of his racing life travelling clockwise – only 3 of his 32 runs outside France have been left-handed (won 2). Still, he has been running in mostly Graded races and his most recent form figures make encouraging reading for an 8-y-o who could still be improving: 51111211-F21. His normally fine jumping will stand him in good stead here too and at 16/1 would hold plenty appeal if the ground does become properly soft – that seems vital to his chance.
In conclusion – it will be no surprise to regular forumites that I won’t be deserting
Cue Card
. I’m confident he has the best engine in the race, but whether it will still be spinning at full revs come the last couple of furlongs, I don’t know. But I have paid to find out, having backed him a couple of weeks ago at 12s. I won’t be laying off. Whatever the outcome, I will take the dose like a man, be it champagne or bitter medicine!
Good luck
Some excellent race previews on this thread, a very good read.
In my opinion,
Bobs Worth
is overpriced at 9/4. He’s only had six career starts over fences (only one more than Dynaste, and he has less career starts than that rival), and therefore is arguably open to the most improvement of the field. He goes well on soft ground, and goes particularly well fresh. He finds plenty off the bridle and has at least half a stone in hand of these on official ratings. The track has been highlighted as a negative, but there’s a long straight at Haydock and I think this will play to his strengths. I also think a fast pace is likely with Roi Du Mee, Long Run and Cue Card in the field. The Giant Boster and Silviniaco Conti have led in the past too although they’ll probably drop in on Saturday. Imo everything is set up for a Bobs Worth victory.
I think
Roi Du Mee
was flattered by his Down Royal romp, it seemed a funny sort of a race where his main rivals were well below form. It’s a pity Mount Benbulben didn’t stand up as he was travelling well when coming to grief.
The Giant Bolster
is another I think should be outclassed on Saturday.
Cue Card
‘s form over two and a half miles last season was excellent. He won the Ryanair in great style before a huge run behind Sprinter Sacre at Aintree. I feel he’s at his best when out in front and can get a sight of his fences, but if forceful tactics are employed on Saturday will he get home? Long Run’s connections won’t want to be hanging around so Joe Tizzard may have to go half a stride faster than he ideally wants, putting added strain on Cue Card’s stamina. There’s enough negatives in my mind to put me off a bet but it would be no surprise if he puts up another big performance.
Long Run
‘s only win in his last six starts came in what was a real battle of King George, beating Captain Chris in a tight finish. While there is a possibility this will turn into a slog, it’s more likely that there are better animals than Captain Chris in the field and as such Long Run looks up against it. Throw in the likelihood of some jumping errors and a desperate comeback run, I think he’s an unlikely winner.
A bigger danger may be the veteran
Tidal Bay
. His form has showed no signs of dropping and his Lexus win last season made the hairs stand up on end. It took an inspired ride from Ruby to get him up that day and if Bobs Worth is on form he’ll need an improvement on that. Also, it’s a real drag up the Leopardstown hill which he won’t get on Saturday, and Bobs Worth had plenty in the locker when beating him in the Hennessy for my money. All the same, I wouldn’t rule him out.
Another poster (think it was Ginger) said that
Dynaste
needs to make a lot of improvement in one run to win this. I’d agree with this train of thought, and feel that it could be difficult for him to come here first time out against an above average Gold Cup winner and beat him. I’m not sure this is the best starting point for the horse, and wouldn’t be tempted to back him at 6 or 7/1.
Silviniaco Conti
is a bigger danger to the fav than most. He was still going well when falling in the Gold Cup, and he got the better of Long Run in this race last year. He looked slightly below his best at Aintree behind First Lieutenant, never travelling with the same zest that he showed previously, but that was understandable given the heavy fall he took at Cheltenham coupled with a long season.
I think Bobs Worth will win from the Nicholls’ pair.
Cue Card 33/1 with Paddy to win both Betfair and King George. Any value in that?
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Nice write-up THM.
Nathan, I think that’s a fair price, but then I would say that, wouldn’t I?
If he wins on Saturday, he’s beaten the best around at the trip and will face the inexperienced Simonsig (who I think suffers from the same malady as Long Run, not bending his back enough and leaving his hind legs too low at fences).
Al Ferof would be the fly in the Boxing Day ointment, and I’d advise a saver on him before he hacks up in the Amlin.
Cue Card 33/1 with Paddy to win both Betfair and King George. Any value in that?
If Cue Card wins the Betfair you would think he’d be near favourite for the King George, particularly with Bobs Worth a possible no show in the latter race, as he was last year.
This is a big race for Cue Card after the jockey making the statement that he felt like a three miler last time. If he doesn’t finish in a respectable position on Saturday and it is evident that lack of stamina was to blame, it leaves little option but stepping back in trip with a horse whose jockey feels he needs further now.
My feeling is that Cue Card won’t stay but if you were to have a bet you could go for the double knowing that you could stake less and would probably be in a good position to lay off on the second part of the double should he prove he CAN win over 3 miles.
There will be worse 33/1 shots this season.
ps My post crossed with Joe’s
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Timeform have their ratings (weight adjusted) on the Sporting Life website and state that Cue Card is their value option. The ratings are listed as:-
Betfair Chase (all ratings weight-adjusted):193 Bobs Worth, Cue Card 188 Tidal Bay 186 Silviniaco Conti 184 Long Run 183 Roi Du Mee 179 The Giant Bolster 173+ Dynaste.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.