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Declared to run in the Betfair Chase this Saturday:
ALBERTAS RUN
BARBERS SHOP
HALCON GENELARDAIS
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
KAUTO STAR
MADISON DU BERLAIS
NACARAT
NOTRE PERE
NOZIC
RAMBLING MINSTER
SEYMOUR WELD
THE SAWYER
TIDAL BAYI’m a huge Kauto Star fan, but he could be vulnerable on his seasonal debut around Haydock, particularly if the ground is very testing.
You would have to give Notre Pere a huge shout in those conditions and the likes of Halcon Genelardais.
If the ground isn’t too testing, the likes of Madison Du Berlais, Imperial Commander and Tidal Bay have to be considered.
Would love to see KS win a third Betfair Chase, but it won’t be easy. I’d like to be on the side of MDB if the ground isn’t too testing.
Like a lot of People i want to see Kauto get a 3rd Lancashire Chase but after Master Minded’s defeat and with it being 5 weeks to the King George will he be fully wound up for this as Paul Nicholls horses are a bit in and out.
Albertas Run and Tidal Bay could be two to back and will run huge races.
Madison De Berlais is the best jumper in flat track, decent ground conditions in the country, bar none.
If it isn’t too soft he could everything including Kauto in trouble on his seasonal debut.Notre Pere will love the soft ground if the forecast is rain for the rest of the week.
Halcon will like the ground soft/heavy too, but im not sure a track like Haydock suits him that well, even though he has won there before, albeit as a 6 year old.
It isn’t Halcon’s main target anyway, he will have this run and then be focused on the Welsh National again at Chepstow so he can go there fresh.
Looks like an interesting race though and plenty of quality horses in that field.
To me Kauto isnt the same horse round haydock,would love to see him win it for a 3rd time on saturday though.
To me you just have to look at his last 2 runs in this race(i know we could argue that this year he will be fresh compared to the last 2 years…..but MM was "fresh" too on sunday!).2years ago ED got as close to Kauto as he ever did and last year Kauto looked a shadow of his usual self.
I think especially if the ground is testing on saturday then Kauto may be in for a tough time of it round there.
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Nacarat heading straight for the King George
I’m expecting a much better run from Nacarat on Saturday than his debut this season at Exeter. Think the course and going will suit him a lot better. Can’t really see him winning but could be placed at a big price.
Nacarat heading straight for the King George
Good decision. Will be a decent price after his Exeter flop and likely a good TBP bet at Kempton
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As PN said…."I’ll never run him at Haydock again" Yeah right Paul
I wouldn’t be going worrying about Kauto lads he’ll be well fit for this.
He’ll win this the go to the King George, win that then go straight to Cheltenham. 3 races 3 wins. No reason to be sending him there neeeding a run if that’s all the racing he’s going to have.
Notre Pere wouldn’t get within 10 lengths of him, Madison Du Berlais is hard to judge but he was no match for him in the gold cup and the course was well in favour of him when he may or may not have beaten Denman.
Imperial Commander will be fit as a fiddle but he never seemed to get the trip in the King George so I see no reason to believe he’ll get it well enough here to beat Kauto.
The only question is: Has Kauto Star retained his ability?
Saw no signs of him going backwards last season and 5/4 is a gift…… get the kitchen sink on.
Given the HEAVY going, shouldn’t Notre Pere be favourite for this?
Against a horse who was won the same race in two of the last three years, and who has a stone in hand on ratings?
What do you think, Gerald?
Given the HEAVY going, shouldn’t Notre Pere be favourite for this?
Despite his visually impressive win at Punchestown let’s not forget that he looked like a right slow boat over 3m on soft behind Neptune Collnges the time before, ridden some way put and plugging on. At Punchestown I think his rivals were all non stayers/didn’t handle the ground/weak race. Plus the trip was 3m1f and the ground bottomless which made it more of a 3m4f test.
I am still not convincd he will have the pace to go with genuine top notch 3 milers when they turn the screw 3 out, even on really heavy ground. Plus it’s worth noting that the Haydock chase track is very easy/tight and speed favouring these days. Even on heavy I think he’ll be too slow to win this. Add in the fact that he fell recently and I think he is a terrible price at 9/4.
I think KS and MDB will have to be badly below par for him to prevail – which admittedlty is possible in the likely extreme conditions. Kauto is the one to beat but I think the value has to be MDB at 5/1+ – 3m on a flat track is ideal and he has plenty of form with cut in the ground. Replications of his Kempton/Aintree wins from last season will mean Kauto will have to be near the top of his game, and at the respective prices the Pipe horse is the value imo.
I’m not sure that people have got their heads around yet how Heavy the going will be – there’s a meteorological BEWARE warning for the Merseyside area, and they are expecting in excess of an inch of rain on both Thursday and Friday (this when the going report is already Soft, Heavy in places). [Admittedly, the BEWARE warning may be more due to the gales.]
Can’t make my mind up about how much of that stone in hand Kauto will have been prepped for. On one hand, it is his seasonal debut, on the other he’s only having the two runs before Cheltenham.
Also, the horse didn’t run at Down Royal, when that was the plan.
What is the story behind that non-appearance?
Scared of having a hard race against Notre Pere?
The bonus for winning this, the King George and the Gold Cup got changed last year, didn’t it? Something to do with the GN. What is the Betfair Bonus scheme this year?
Gerald, the plan for Kauto Star was never Down Royal and
then
Haydock – it was Down Royal
or
Haydock.
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Would have to agree with you there HH. His win over Schlrs. Hunt at levels over an extended 3 mile trip doesn’t put him within a stone of Kauto Star. After MDB’s victories last season I would have expected himto be 2nd fav but the ground will have a lot to do with that.
I think people are wrong when they say Kauto Star isn’t suited by Haydock. Whe PN said he’d never run him again there people have latched on to it but for me PN has sat down in the calm light iof day and realised he wasn’t thinking straight.
When he’s ran there most of the time he’s either not been 100% fit or had a race too close to going for it. Like Down Royal G.
When he beat Exotic Dancer 1/2 length you can bet your life there wouldn’t be an ounce left on ED by Jonjo to owrk on. When trainers are after your scalp what better time than early in the season? We seen it only last week when MM was defeated by Well Chief and I said at the time that was his 2 mile champion chase.
The big difference this year is Kauto doesn’t have the same schedule as before so there’s no need to send him here 90% fit like before. He’ll have plenty time between this and the King George and unless PN is telling fairy tales he’s well ready for this.
I’m really not concerned about the ground either. They all have to go through it and if Kauto Star can run in a tacky gluepot when he was all wrong and run Denman to what would have been about 3 lengths but for a mistake at the last, then he’ll handle this if he’s fit and well.
People have short memories about just how good Kauto Star is, But when they see him looking fit as a fiddle (I hope) and he’s round about evens, the money will come pouring in. NP 9/4 against Kauto on a flat track in any going is a nonsense IMO
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