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After burning my fingers on Coolvalla for the Scottish National AP, Ive gone again. Also added Mordor, both 20’s e/w 6pls. They were the initial prices Thursday when decs were finalised on 365. Both have 3M+ form so should stay, if having a safe round.
Certainly Red is very interesting after a pop round ascot over hurdles over a shorter trip, will look again tomorrow, I like the confidence @ Steeplechasing.I’ve been watching Certainly Red’s improvement through this season. He started off on a mark of 116, and now sits on 142, representing an improvement of almost two stones. I’m pretty sure there is more to come, and already have him down as a Grand National horse for next year.
The betting on this race on Monday saw a couple of offers of 20/1: I resisted betting or tipping him, as I have found it best over the season to await the 48 hour decs before risking cash. He’s now 10/1 after steady daily support. Were he trained by one of the big guns, he’d nearly be favourite. Lydia Richards has done a fine job with him in training and placing, and I suspect this has been the long term plan since he won with such verve at Wincanton in December.
He’ll be fine in any ground with ease in it, and his victories over staying trips suggest that this 3m5f will be all right for him. He won at Sandown in January over 20f, this despite jumping badly left at the last. He followed that up with another Wincanton victory over 3m1f, surging clear on the run-in. He then had a two-month holiday before reappearing over hurdles as, I assume, a pipe opener for this big one. The good conditional Caoilin Quinn takes an extra 5lbs off his back giving him a weight of 10.5.
I’d normally pick two or three in a race like this, but in this case I’m more than happy to stick with Certainly Red and he’s a strongly recommended EW bet at 10/1 to 6 places with Bet365 (others offer 9s or shorter)
Good luck all
Joe
“A mediocre field for a 90k prize / prestigious race”
Yep. I’ll probably just bet Frodon ew, if they haven’t monkeyed about with the course too much and left it like glue, and leave it at that.
Musical Slave 18/1
Runner up behind Hewick last year, I can forgive his lackluster efforts at Cheltenham and Welsh national. He won a veterans race in between those and I think the ground will be perfect for him. Worth an each way poke.
Annual Invictus for me here. I think the ground in the Kim Muir was too soft for him. Before that he won a 3 mile handicap hurdles and those require serious stamina. Dropped a few pounds for his run in the Kim Muir and the ground should be fine now. Also had to add Enrilo because of his performance two years ago and the confindence form Paul Nicholls.
Annual Invictus 16/1 EW
Enrilo 8/1As the founding member of the Kitty’s Light fanclub; I simply can’t abandon him, short price and all. I’ve backed him for next years Grand National, so I won’t be going mad, but if Christian Williams can pull this off; it must be the training feat of the season.
Coolvalla
Progressive, stays well and handles the ground. Question marks about a good few of these.
Not going to add any more.
Revels Hill 11-2 ew 6 places
Coolvalla 14-1 ew 6 placesGood luck all.
Backed Kittys Light and Tea Clipper. And I had to add Certainly Red after such a persuasive case was made for him by Steeplechasing.
There cannot be many tougher horses in training. Winning an Eider, Scottish National and a Whitbread just one week later makes him a candidate for Horse of the Season in my book.
What a fantastic horse. Well done to Autumnal, Cork and specially to Peter who I know who has trumpeted this horse on here for a long time.
Well done Autumnal, VF, Cork and of course Peter- what a tough horse and would echo Cork’s sentiments about horse of the season
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