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I thought I would start a thread for this race, since there isn’t one up yet.
I am very sweet on Aimigayle here. I have been a fan of the mare for a long time, as it is hard not to love her gutsy attitude. Given the way she rallies after being outpaced, I think she has been crying out for a stamina test. Although injury intervened last year, Suzy Smith has done well not to overface Aimigayle in marathon chases too early in her career – she’s only eight after all!
The race is usually run on quick ground, which she adores being by Midnight Legend. She is clearly in excellent form after a brilliant second in the Byrne Group Plate over an inadequate distance.
25/1? Yum yum.
I remember your great shout with Church Island last year TYF, good luck on getting a "back to back" victory.
I’ve plumped for Beat The Boys Win 16’s, and Triggerman 33’s EW at this stage. I’d like to think Beat The Boys will take this route, and was quite impressed with him at Sandown earlier in the season. It’s not a course which suits every horse, so took the 95’s to 120’s which was available a couple of weeks ago. Fingers crossed he goes, there’s obviously the concern, at those prices that he won’t be, but I remain hopeful.
As for Triggerman, he’s clearly a bit quirky, but think the track and trip will suit, and connections like a runner in the race, so was willing, again, to take a risk at a price, getting 75’s to 95’s.
Hoping one of them makes it there on the day, 2 would be a bonus.
Thanks VTC and good luck with your duo too.
I like your thinking with Triggerman. He’ll like the quick ground and could well have been targetted at the race. He does like to clout a few fences when off the bridle though. Half the battle with Beat The Boys must be winning the battle for the lead from Church Island, Aimigayle et all. He seems to get a little sulky if he can’t have it his own way.
Checking the card again I’m a little nervous. I didn’t realise Aimigayle was so far down the list. She needs 24 to come out and is right on the edge of the rating that made the final 20 last year.
Of those entered, these would be likely or possible withdrawals:
Kauto Star (going to Punchestown)
What A Friend (Grand National exertions)
Or Noir De Somoza (heavy fall in the GN?)
Siegemaster (probably Irish National instead)
Wishfull Thinking (presumably will be put away for the season?)
Quinz (burst blood vessel)
Carole’s Legacy (retired)
The Tother One (fell at Aintree)
Niche Market (hard race at Aintree)
Mon Parrain (doesn’t stay, finished tired in Topham)
The Midnight Club (hard race at Aintree)
Arbor Supreme (as above)
Ballabriggs (as above)
State Of Play (might run now his chance in the National seems gone, would be a quick follow up though)
Hello Bud, Surface To Air, West End Rocker (GN runners, would be asking a lot)
Comply Or Die (retired)
Dream Alliance (retired…I think)
Can’t Buy Time (doesn’t stay/ran in National)A few more could run in the Scottish National instead. Now I’ve been through it, I’m less confident about Aimigayle getting in.
Dream Alliance has not been retired and currently is an intended runner. However, he would not want fast ground and the forecast is not encouraging.
Dream Alliance has not been retired and currently is an intended runner. However, he would not want fast ground and the forecast is not encouraging.
Ah okay, my apologies. I saw Mr Hobbs interviewed on TV recently about Dream Alliance and he stated that the horse would be retired
"if he didn’t show more enthusiasm"
that day. I guess this would be one last roll of the dice?
Triggerman was back on track yesterday, VTC, just doing enough.
Paul Nicholls has all but ruled Mon Parrain out of the race on his Betfair blog, as well as Niche Market and What A Friend being confirmed as out. The Midnight Club is another predictable absentee, along with Comply Or Die.
Aimigayle is down to 12/1 from the 25/1 in most places. I’m still sweating for her to make it though!
Cheers TYF, had a small bet on to get my stake back for this, but I ended up missing the race. "just doing enough", that sounds about right for him. Hopefully he’ll still give Sandown a shot, might come a bit quick, but wouldn’t be the first to run well here, having already ran well in April, it can be done. How did his jumping look? Even if he doesn’t go next week, if his jumping "quirks" can be ironed out, he’s one I’d like to keep following next season.
Winning distance for Balthazar King largely depends on whether the following turn up:
West End Rocker
Maktu
Meanus DandyWas surprised to see Baby Run in the betting, although I’d often wondered how good he would be outside of hunter chases. ATR says he’ll be ridden by Sam T-D, although it seems there had been a possibility of Willie riding him. Sadly, along with being ‘jocked off’ Baby Run he has just broken his leg. I don’t want to sound callous, and it was wonderful to see him win at Aintree, but surely professional jockeys would have found it a concern to have a 16 year old with such little experience riding in the race? I thought Sam was 17 when he started to ride more of the stables high profile horse? Can’t help but feel that a 16 year old isn’t mentally mature enough to ride in races such as the Bet 365? Having said that, I wish the lad a speedy recovery.
Backed Wishfull Thinking and Mon Parran on the machines at 60s, doubts over whether they will run (and stay), but like the value.
Main bets are Balthazar King and Baby Run both at 10s again on betfair.
Isn’t Balthazar King just mopping up the weak novice events at the moment? He looks quite harshly treated on 140 to me, no secrets from the handicapper.
Triggerman jumped better at Cheltenham in the week, a bit sticky sometimes but I suppose he has his own way. The small field might have helped him with that though.
Baby Run is definitely interesting. He idles in front, so will rarely win by far and hides his true level of ability. He would be fresher than most after starting his season later as well. How on earth do you put a handicap rating on him though…I guess his entry in the race says all you need to know about that!
Church Island has obviously been saved for this race again. I know he is higher in the weights and A. Heskin’s claim has probably diminished as well, but I can’t see him being out of the first four given how impressive he was last year. He’ll need it quick too.
The more I look, the more I think Aimigayle is ludicrously well-handicapped. It will be the first time she has the ground AND trip in her favour rather than one or the other. The form of her run behind Holmwood Legend looks even better after that one roughed up Poquelin this week too. With Fair Along missing an engagement due to lameness and Minella Four Star sadly RIP, she is a little closer to making the cut as well.
Aimigayle is a decent shout, but asking an awful lot of a mare coming back from 18 months off with only 2 runs this season, when the previous 11 winners had all had at least 3 season runs before the race. In fact Aimigayle has managed only 4 runs in 2 years and was beaten seemingly without excuse off 134 before her latest sabbatical.
Re: Balthy King, he was racing the likes of Wayward Prince and Chicago Grey in his first few attempts over fences, and came out with enormous credit. He disappointed behind TFR but has been brought back beautifully by Hobbs and, presuming he runs(!), the intent from the stable is pretty obvious, Hobbs has been known to like this race
and his handicap mark has been protected, he’s surely a well handicapped beast and his run style and stamina test on good ground should make him go extremely close.Aimigayle is a decent shout, but asking an awful lot of a mare coming back from 18 months off with only 2 runs this season, when the previous 11 winners had all had at least 3 season runs before the race. In fact Aimigayle has managed only 4 runs in 2 years and was beaten seemingly without excuse off 134 before her latest sabbatical.
That run off 134 was a corker in my opinion. She loves rattling quick ground and it was visually a good deal softer than the official "good" that day. In finishing second to handicap snip The Last Derby, she beat:
Shining Gale – won hot handicap at Haydock afterwards, despite going badly wrong on the run-in
Seven Is My Number – prolific winner afterwards
Hold ‘Em (RIP) – went on to an excellent run in the Paddy Power
Aimigayle is evidently a little fragile, but that must come alongside her need for quick conditions.
Very pleased to see prices released from bookmakers and Baby Run and Balthazar King are both 6/1 joint favourites! Get in!
Race is taking shape now,i have backed
My last bet is FaaselEW as 33s is an insult to this good horse.
I rather fancy West End Rocker at current odds. He was a favourite of TAPK’s and seemed to be going well in the GN before being brought down.
Briery Fox – 2nd in the race 2 years ago off a 5lb higher mark, 3rd on other attempt at Sandown and could go close
Burren Legend- form at course reads 363 however 6 lengths is furthest been beaten by. Tom Cannons claim could bring him into this
Triggerman- needs a stiff 3m4 and this looks perfect, jumping is an issue and the railway fences might be too tricky for him.
Can’t buy time- won on only course outing beat course specialist easily, can’t be dismissed if the fall in national is out of his system.
Aimigayle- tough and game but she pulled up at Sandown on only outing here and that would worry me.
Baby Run- been running very well from the front this season and could catch these out.
Exmoor Ranger- 2nd previously at Sandown and should go close again off just 2lb higher mark.
Church Island- comes back to try and win again after a 1st and 4th, off same mark as last year and should go close
Briery Fox 50-1
Burren Legend 40-1
Triggerman 14-1
Can’t Buy Time 16-1
Aimigayle 9-1
Baby Run- 6-1
Exmoor Ranger- 25-1
Church Island 25-1Looking at the odds i feel it would be worth going with
Briery Fox 50-1
Can’t Buy Time 16-1
Exmoor Ranger- 25-1
Burren Legend 40-1
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