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Canada Street 40/1 had a prep race at Sedgefield finishing 3rd to Lucky Nellerie at Sedgefield. Quietly away 6 out you would have got 1000/1 on Betfair in running. 5 out he started picking up ground and going towards the 2nd last without any real effort he was within striking range but a quite one was the name of the game and Dougie Costello was in no real hurry to get involved.While he may look outclassed Howard Johnson has his horses in great form which is a major plus, he’ll be a lot more forward than most,loves Wetherby and wouldn’t be the worst ew bet in the race. 6/10
Church Island Put up another excellent front running performance in the Kerry National only to be Ruby’d at the last. He was given a month off before finishing a well beaten 6th in the Munster National. He’s not a horse who a trainer would mess about with and you need luck on your side to catch him on a good day. He may well get some of these at it but is sure to find one or 2 too good for him in this class 5/10
Darkness was a very decent novice but has been a bit disappointing since. He did beat Church Island but he never really got going that day after several bad mistakes. He’d need a lot of luck even to be placed. 4/10
Deep Purple His trainer Evan Williams won this last year with State of Play and won’t hear of defeat for Deep Purple. He won’t mind the ground be it fast or slow and a mole in a hole tells me he’s very fit and has improved leaps and bounds since last season. Given a clear round he looks very difficult to oppose 9/10
What A Friend Highly rated by Paul Nichols who reckons he’s a future Gold Cup horse. PN says it depend on the ground and won’t run if it’s too fast despite the fact he has won on g/f twice. It’s along season and if he does turn up I have my doubts if he will do so fully fit. A possible tilt at the Hennessy is on the agenda and if he does run here you can bet PN won’t have rushed him and have left a bit to work on. Good horse but no value at 5/2 6/10
Just AmazingHe loves fast ground is in great form and will strip fitter than most. He seems a big price at 14/1 but that’s probably because he’s more likely to run at Ascot. 0/10
Gwanko On his day is a very good horse and although needs plenty cut to be seen at his best could run a big race here. I reckon he’s always been PN’s most likely runner for this, I think the longer trip will bring out the best in him. 6/1 may look stingy but could be the value of the race if he ends up being PN’s only runner. 8/10
Tamarinbleu You need to have a lot of faith to back this horse. His claim to fame was beating Twist Magic on one of his non staying days. He could cause an upset by going off at a million miles an hour and could win if the others get too far behind. For me that’s a very big if and can’t have him 3/10
Ollie MagernNearly stole the show last year but is very unreliable and Nigel Twiston Davis has had a fairly slow start to the season. Needs to have things his own way to have a chance and I can’t see that happening here with Church Island and Tamarinbleu being in the same category. Waste of money backing this one. 2/10
Snoopy Loopymade a celebrity visit to Ffos Las on his most recent outing. He was never going to win that day, carrying way too much condition. He was pulled up but the old sparkle was still there and he ran with until tiring badly 4 out. Every time you looked at a race card he seemed to be running last season and although his last 4 runs have been poor you just can’t write him off. He seemed to thrive on racing last season and horses like that have a habit of bouncing back when you least expect it. He finished 3rd in this last year, Peter Bowen is a very shrewd trainer and will have had this in mind for the horse from some time back. He would probably be happier with a bit of cut but they are watering so there shouldn’t be any jar in the ground. If there is going to be a surprise winner he looks the most likely candidate. 7/10
Mr Robertif you fancy him I’ll be happy to lay you the bet. He’ll probably run at Ascot.
[b:3jt0d9q6]DEEP PURPLE [/color:3jt0d9q6][/b:3jt0d9q6]
Interesting stuff, Fists.
Someone sent me the penalty conditions for this race (I can never remember them), and as best I can make out, both Tamarinblue and Ollie Magern will be receiving weight from all but Mr Robert and Canada Street on Saturday. I get the weights coming out as follows:
Snoopy Loopy 11-10
Gwanako 11-6
Deep Purple 11-5
What A Friend 11-3
Darkness 11-4
Church Island 11-4
Just Amazing 11-3
Mr Robert 11-0
Canada Street 11-0
Ollie Magern 11-0
Tamarinbleu 11-0For me, Ollie Magern and Tamaribleu look the two I would want to back at the weights (assuming I’ve got them right, of course!).
Hope you’re right in your framing of the weights grasshopper, wanted to be with Tamarinbleu yesterday as soon as i saw the entries.
I also hope I’m right, Straw Bear – I took 6.4 about Tamrinbleu about an hour ago!
Tamarinbleu has a great record first-time-out, and the race could cut-up quite a bit – I reckon it might not take much winning.
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Well I grabbed the 4’s and 7/2 about Deep Purple as I fully expect What a Friend not to turn up. (he said hopefully)
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There’s a bit of money going about for everything except Mr Robert who’s drifted out to 85 on the Richter scale.At least you got some value Grassy but his best bit of form over the last 2 years came in the Betfair the day a blatantly unfit Kauto Star fell with Exotic Dancer and Cloudy Lane even less fit than he was.
If Snoopy Loopy is in good nick your fellow might not reverse places with him even at 10lbs difference”””” he should do but front runners either put it in or they don’t and he’s thrown in the towel in all of hist last 3 races
And that Ollie Magern won’t win he’s as mad as a hatter and the last time he won Persian War won the Champion Hurdle
Paul Nicholls had a poor time of it at Chepstow last weekend with some fancied runners.
Hopefully he has ironed out the problems with his inmates and with a bit of luck What A Friend can take this trappy contest on the way to better things.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Be very surprised if the winner came from anything other than Tamarinbleu or Ollie Magern. Even off levels I’d make them the two to best, and with the weights as they are they are just so far ahead of the rest. Plus they both love to be fresh so are likely to give their running.
1. Tamarinbleu
2. Ollie Magern
3. DarknessAt the moment Tamarinbleu looks to have plenty in his favour, especially the weights. Can’t have Deep Purple I’m afraid, don’t think he is a 3 miler….
Fist – Not sure how you gave Canada Street 6/10. He looks well out of his depth here. Rated 110, he has to find masses of improvement to get competitive in this.
Interesting preview at:
http://thejumpingirishman.wordpress.com/2009/10/29/charlie-hall-chase-preview/
I kind of agree with the conclusion that it is hard to find one to back with any real confidence.
Good luck with Deep Purple, but current form says the Williams team have little on which to base their confidence.
His only winner in the past fortnight was a 1/4 chance in a four runner juvenile hurdle, and his chasers are 1/56 over the last three months.
This also promises to be a tough race in which to try to lead, as he’ll surely be taken on by at least Ollie Magern and Tamarinbleu, probably Church island and possibly Just Amazing.
Add in a record of the race being won by horses already proven at 3 miles and he has a lot of question marks for the price he’s at now.
AP
Deep Purples sire Halling is just 3-57 since 2000 at 22f and further, 0-13 at Wetherby.
Good preview to the race here.
I can add another negative for Deep Purple; his Dosage Rating is not suitable for the race when compared with previous winners. This backs up the sire stat mentioned previously in this thread.
Starting to look like a lay…..
Well, I’m with Fisting on this one.
I think Deep purple could just outclass an ordinary bunch.
Yes, there is a doubt about the trip, but I think he can stay. The only real worry is he can jump a bit funny depending on the track. Is Wetherby the right way round for him? I’m guessing it is
Zip
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I’m surprised at some of the worries regarding Deep Purple.
First off Evan Williams Deep Purple is said to be in great form and there’s nothing wrong with the yards form. In truth he hasn’t had a runner in the last 14 days that was "expected" to win and most would be needing the run or are simply useless. Cappa Blue was perhaps the exception because he’s a high class horse but in the end he couldn’t go the pace on the track and the ground was against him.
As far as him getting 3 miles is concerned I can’t see that being a problem…He certainly wasn’t stopping at Ayr over 2m4f and if anything he showed improved form over the extra distance.
He obviously happiest when making the running and if that’s their intentions he going to have to be foot perfect all the way round.
On the question of the track Zippy, Wetherby is a left handed track and I’ve seen him twice go left when he’s been wrong on the approach. Some say it’s a good thing going left handed if a horse tends to go to the left but as he only does so when he’s wrong so it would actually be against him. He made several blunders at Aintree which is left handed and was beaten easily but was foot perfect at Ayr and won as he liked.
I’m not sure if going left when he wrong is a trait of his but if it is Paul Maloney should know the horse well enough by now to keep him off the rail and give him space to maneuver. We hope!
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Fist – Not sure how you gave Canada Street 6/10. He looks well out of his depth here. Rated 110, he has to find masses of improvement to get competitive in this.
Based on the chances of making a few quid mate not how I rate him overall………. unless the heavens open up at least 2 or 3 won’t run (he might be one of them for all I know) You have 4 horses all confirmed front runners which means the pace will be like a 2 mile hurdle, mistakes will be made and as sure as hell at least 2 of those will be goosed by the 3rd last. If it does turn out like that, steady away running past beaten horses he won’t have to beat much to nick 3rd place.
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