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Belmont Stakes 2009

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  • #11601
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Freely admit to not following the US racing but have watched Mine That Bird run two solid races and shape as if he should be even better over the longer trip. Can anyone confirm why he isn’t odds on?

    #231795
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Doesn’t quite prevent Mine That Bird being odds on by itself, but Charitable Man was a very good 2yo, who then fractured his leg. Charitable Man has won the recognised trial for the Belmont, that Belmont Park holds.

    edit: I was going to write that another reason is the Coolmore hype about Dunkirk – but the hype never emanates from Coolmore. I suppose I should write instead "the hype about the Coolmore horse, Dunkirk".

    #231799
    halfwaytoheaven
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    • Total Posts 1387

    Mine That Bird opened at 4/5 when the antepost betting (including Rachel Alexandra) begun with a few firms. If this was a match between Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra based on the last few runs by both I’d have no doubts that Mine That Bird would be more suited by the mile and a half distance here.

    However, Rachel is out and MTB has drifted out to odds against. The main triggers to this are Charitable Man’s preperation for this with an easy course win. He’s a course specialist and thrives at Belmont – at 9/2 he’s a pretty good bet at the moment.

    The other reason would be the unpredictability surrounding Coolmore’s Dunkirk. This horse really could be anything still. Dunkirk didnt perform at all at Churchill Downs and for connections to bypass the Preakness and aim for this is a big plus, as is Pletcher’s record at Belmont.

    After the Preakness, I thought this race was Mine That Bird’s for the taking and if he drifts to 2/1 (like Rachel Alexandra did pre-Preakness) I’d definitely opt for him. However, at current prices it’s a small bet on Chocolate Candy at 14/1 who is by no means a long odds option.

    Chocolate Candy ran on extremley well behind Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby and is another one that didnt really fire at CD. I’d expect this horse to put up a similar performance to Dunkirk and, dependant on jockey bookings, could run even better. With that in mind it’s Chocolate Candy for me right now.

    #231813
    Irish Stamp
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    • Total Posts 3177

    Summer Bird @ 50/1 late last week was my bet. See no particular reason why this horse should be that big or even as big as half that price.

    He’s run sixth in the Derby off a hold up ride and a run that was made down the outside, by a Belmont winner and he’s been training well up to the race.

    Dunkirk will improve for the experience but there’s no reason on the formbook why he should turn the form around.

    #231814
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Jockey bookings in stall order (Low to high):

    Chocolate Candy, Garrett Gomez, 10-1

    Dunkirk, John Velazquez, 4-1

    Mr. Hot Stuff, Edgar Prado, 15-1

    Summer Bird, Kent Desormeaux, 12-1

    Luv Gov, Miguel Mena, 20-1

    Charitable Man, Alan Garcia, 3-1

    Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, 2-1

    Flying Private, Julien Leparoux, 12-1

    Miner’s Escape, Jose Lezcano, 15-1

    Brave Victory, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1.

    #231819
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    I’m under the impression that Gomez most likely had the pick of a few here, as he did in the Kentucy Derby. For him to pick Chocolate Candy over Dunkirk would be a massive plus for me.

    I’m not jumping to conclusions though. He might not have been offered the Dunkirk ride this time round.

    Interesting to see Mine That Bird the 2/1 ML favourite. A lack of confidence due to the post draw maybe? He needs to rail-run

    #231844
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    In fine Zarkava style I’ve decided to apply a few trends to this field, more out of interest if anything and i’ve noted quite a few interesting trends.

    Please note, i’ve only gone back 10 years for the majority of these trends.

    One thing I’ve noted is that since the last Triple Crown winner in 1978 only

    TWO

    winners of the Kentucky Derby have won this race.

    Similarly the only favourites to win this race have won the Preakness LTO (Afleet Alex in 2005 & Point Given in 2001). Favourites have a very poor record in this.

    6 of the last 10 winners have skipped the Preakness after the Derby and won this (3 ran in both TC races whereas 1 skipped the whole TC prior to winning the Belmont).

    An interesting occurance to note is the stall number of the last 4 winners. The stalls numbers from 2005-2008 were 9,8,7,6……not a trend yet if this were to continue then Luv Gov would be your winner on Saturday night.

    However, one trend that would put that theory dead in the water is that fact that no horse in the last 10 years has started their TC campaign in the Preakness and won the Belmont NTO.

    For Trends to continue/be broken


    For the ‘Skipping the Preakness’ trend to continue either

    Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, Mr Hot Stuff

    or

    Summer Bird

    must win.

    If

    Charitable Man, Miner’s Escape

    or

    Brave Victory

    win this Saturday they will be only the second horse in 11 years to skip the entire Triple Crown prior to this race.

    If

    Mine That Bird

    wins the Belmont on Saturday he will be the first Derby winner to win the Derby and Belmont Stakes for 14 years . He will also be only the third horse to do so since 1978 .

    If

    Dunkirk

    wins he will be the first horse in 15 years to do so from post #2. Similarly if

    Brave Victory

    wins he will be the first horse from way beyond 1978 to win from post #10.

    #231852
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Nice. Was tempted to do Triple Crown trends before this year’s started but have lost a lot of motivation for US racing due to the different surfaces. A lot of them will possibly be worthless this year but hopefully not. Always nice to get firm patterns going.

    So basically for the Belmont you want a KY & Preakness runner?

    #231853
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    In terms of skipping the first two legs of the Triple Crown, presumably the Belmont winner who did that was Irish-trained? Which would give him an excuse.

    Charitable Man also has a sort of excuse. Fractured leg. Came back in the Blue Grass, but understandably scratched for the Kentucky Derby.

    #231855
    Onthesteal
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    MTB has the best form in the book and is a certainty to improve a great deal over the extra trip. I refuse to ignore the blindingly obvious here and shall wade in at 2-1. I still think the horse is not getting the credit it deserves on both sides of the water IMO.

    #231859
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Yup, I agree with that wholeheartedly. I had my doubts after the KY but not after the Preakness.

    #231861
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Nice. Was tempted to do Triple Crown trends before this year’s started but have lost a lot of motivation for US racing due to the different surfaces. A lot of them will possibly be worthless this year but hopefully not. Always nice to get firm patterns going.

    So basically for the Belmont you want a KY & Preakness runner?

    I’d slightly edge towards a horse that may have underperformed in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.

    The trends over the last 10 years show a 60% win rate in favour of horses who skipped the Preakness. Only 2 Belmont winners ran in both of the TC races and won neither.

    I agree though about MTB. I was sceptical after the Derby but after his performance in the Preakness I became a fan. I still wonder what would have happened if Mike Smith waited for the rail opening on the final turn.

    Both Curlin & Big Brown (who of course pulled up) have been overturned in the Belmont as favourites. More often than not its a bigger priced winner in the Belmont too.

    Looking back, theres been 81/1 shots, 33/1 shots etc that have won this after being under-rated due to their previous runs. This could, however, be the first year that the TC has been tipped on its head with a long-odds winner in the first race and a shortie in the last (Mine That Bird)

    #231867
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Urgh, this is a horrible,horrible race to trend. I expect you need to go into Beyer figures and 2yo form which I really cannot be bothered to do. Don’t particularly want to go into American racing. Also the RP database doesn’t properly go back 14 years and the race attracts small fields so you don’t get a big number of guinea pigs to base trends on.

    As Halfwaytoheaven says, you need a horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby, so take out; Luv Gov, Charitable Man, Miner’s Escape, Brave Victory.

    Being unplaced in the KY & the Preakness doesn’t seem to be too good, although only 3 have tried in the past decade. Am happy to roll with it. Flying Private is out.

    Can’t be backing Todd Pletcher in a TC race. Take out Dunkirk.

    Chocolate Candy, Mr Hot Stuff, Summer Bird & Mine That Bird are the 4 that remain.

    Only exceptional horses seem to be able to run in the KY and Preakness and then win here. Curlin failed, while Afleet Alex & Point Given succeeded. I’m not sure Mine That Bird is exceptional, so I don’t mind ruling him out, especially in a race with so many big-priced winners.

    Mr Hot Stuff never remotely came close to challenging for place honours in the KY (1-0-6 for those who finished outside the top 10 in the KY). Should also mention that Nick Zito has a fantastic record in the race and is 2-4-6. He has Miner’s Escape & Brave Victory in this. He has a much better record with the latter type of horse.

    I’ll do combination forecasts & tricasts with Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Brave Victory. Will also back all 3 each-way. A bit scatter-gun for an 11-runner race, I know, but it’s a difficult race.

    #231896
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    I’ll cut to the chase and go straight for mine that bird. It’s proven that the trip will suit, and can run in any weather condition. Add to the fact that CB is a super wee jocky then it’s a rap.

    #231925
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    There’s a good reason for the trend outlined that makes it hard for the horse coming here for the triple crown to win- 3 quick runs on unforgiving US tracks for a 3yo is physically demanding and you can bet most of the players in the first 2 legs have some sort of niggle they have to overcome. If you laid every fav for the Belmont over the years you’d be well in front.

    #231935
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    There’s a good reason for the trend outlined that makes it hard for the horse coming here for the triple crown to win- 3 quick runs on unforgiving US tracks for a 3yo is physically demanding and you can bet most of the players in the first 2 legs have some sort of niggle they have to overcome. If you laid every fav for the Belmont over the years you’d be well in front.

    Very true – it doesn’t stop there being some very unlucky losers, Charismatic being the most obvious example.

    Would say that a 12f dawdle which is likely to occur in the Belmont isn’t going to suit a real deep closer down to the ground – MTB is the most likely winner but a very strong pace would help him more than the slow one we’re likely to experience on Saturday.

    #231967
    brendanr
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    I count Smarty Jones and Big Brown as two of the biggest lays I have ever placed. If Mine that Bird was going for the triple crown I’d be laying him big as well as his price would be 1/2 or something like that. As he is not I wont. While he is the most likely winner, Borel stated in no uncertain terms on Get On that he’d win, his price is nothing I’d get involved with. Charitable Man at 9/2 is where my money has gone.

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