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MTB is 2/1 in America but only evens here. Sums up the pathetic situation with tight arsed bookies.
Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes
1 Chocolate Candy
[10-1]
2 Dunkirk
[4-1]
3 Mr. Hot Stuff
[15-1]
4 Summer Bird
[12-1]
5 Lov Guv
[20-1]
6 Charitable Man
[3-1]
7 Mine That Bird
[2-1]
8 Flying Private
[12-1]
9 Miner’s Escape
[15-1]
10 Brave Victory
[15-1]
PAST PERFORMANCES: http://www.tlorehorses.com/trainers/ple … ge=brisnet
MTB is 2/1 in America but only evens here. Sums up the pathetic situation with tight arsed bookies.
He’ll drift out here in line with that, Graeme. Dont worry
MTB is 2/1 in America but only evens here. Sums up the pathetic situation with tight arsed bookies.
It’s all swings and roundabouts Graeme – if you look at the prices of Luv Gov, Summer Bird, etc you’ll find they’re all at least 4 or 6 points bigger than the morning line prices in the US.
Fair enough halfway and Irish stamp. I guess i might put a shilling or two on it if the price improves. It’s a race i’ll watch whatever happens, because i wannae see Calvin Borrel pull it off.
Dunkirk and Choclate Candy. Mind That Birds run style will be his down fall at big sandy, plus the jockey cannot be a rail slag as the turns are sweeping.
It will be a dog fight of a finnissh.
Dunkirk and Choclate Candy. Mind That Birds run style will be his down fall at big sandy, plus the jockey cannot be a rail slag as the turns are sweeping.
It will be a dog fight of a finnissh.
They don’t call him Bo-rail for nothing – he’s lost without the rail.
I’ll do combination forecasts & tricasts with Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Brave Victory. Will also back all 3 each-way. A bit scatter-gun for an 11-runner race, I know, but it’s a difficult race.
Well I didn’t have the forecast or tricast but the winner will do
- Total Posts 17716
Well done, Zarkava, but the round of applause has to go to Martin who put Summer Bird up at 50/1 – phenomenal stuff.
Summer Bird @ 50/1 late last week was my bet. See no particular reason why this horse should be that big or even as big as half that price.
He’s run sixth in the Derby off a hold up ride and a run that was made down the outside, by a Belmont winner and he’s been training well up to the race.
Dunkirk will improve for the experience but there’s no reason on the formbook why he should turn the form around.
Looks like we both made good money there
Great stuff Zarkava – can’t beat finding a big priced winner, particularly one that should have gone off about 12’s
Thanks Equitrack – onwards and upwards for Summer Bird now, shame there aren’t more 12f dirt races for him and the other "Birdstone’s"
Congratulations Mr Stamp. That’s some nice tipping there.
However, rather than a soaking wet blanket, allow me to throw a teensy weensy moist handkerchief on the gneral good feeling. You owe Borel ninety percent of your winnings there.
In both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, MTB was detached by up to ten lengths. Clearly, his improvement has come from being one of those horses that likes to give others a head start, a certain arrogance, a King of the Herd thing.
Last night, Borel had him no more than two back and before the
end of the first quarter
he was starting to advance. In Louisville and Baltimore he was still fast asleep at that point! And by being too close to the action, not only was Borel negating MTB’s chief weapon, which appears to be arrogance, he was challenging
on the outside?
Wasn’t Smith criticised for this at Pimlico?
Borel seemed in a big rush last night, as if he had a party on afterward. Everything lacked flow and contours. It was all too disjointed. I’m convinced that had Borel held his nerve and challenged last from behind
Summer Bird
he would have been able to do your horse for speed. Chip Wooley felt the same too. The New Mexican handler did his job – MTB looked well and cruised through the field, the same horse who turned up for the first two legs. But you need a decent pilot – and a consistent one -and while Borel was fantastic in Louisville, he jumped ship no questions asked at Pimlico and, well, made a big mess of it in New York. Time for a permanent change, I think.
Would love to see Lepereux or Dominguez on in the Classic. Think Lingfield – MTB is just going to
love
Santa Anita and if I knew he was going, that 14/1 is just madness. Utter madness.
Anyway, nice 50/1 shot. Always brave tipping those kind of prices and you deserve it.
Thanks Max – I ruled out MTB on the basis that they go no sort of gallop in the Belmont and that it wouldn’t suit a deep closer like MTB, as it happened they went a bit crazy early doors with the fractions and it was set up for a closer. Looks to me like Wooley and Borel had a plan of action before the race and then when things didn’t work out how they’d thought Borel just went and executed the original plan anyway.
Good run from Dunkirk too though the way some of the American’s over at TBC are talking you’d think he’d won the thing
Fantastic tipping, IS! If you played the Derby and the Preakness i’m sure thats more than made up for missing out there
You definitely did good getting the 50’s, this beast went off at 11/1!Maybe it was fate that Kent Desormeaux, the jockey that missed out with Big Brown last year, came and spoilt Borel’s ‘Jockey Triple Crown’ party. Dunkirk was ridden to perfection too.
In addition, two key trends live on. The favourite still hasnt won the Belmont for god-knows-how-long and ANOTHER horse that has skipped the Preakness (after running in the Derby) wins the Belmont.
However, As for the comments regarding MTB and Santa Anita – Chip Wooley was adamant last night that MTB really wants a slop track (To his credit he did say this before last nights race in an interview…) and I’m a bit sceptical as to whether MTB will enjoy the proride at Santa Anita.
The distance will be fine for MTB in the Classic but there’s no evidence in the slightest that MTB will be perfect on the proride at SA.
On the undercard, old-warrior Better Talk Now managed to get 3rd in the big handicap! That was quite possibly one of the rides of the day. Forever Together also failed to hit the target (coming home 2nd to a sprinter) and Fabulous Strike and Gabbys Golden Girl set blistering track records. Gabbys Golden Girl is a massive selection for the Ladies Classic at the BC for me.
Chuffed that blackie hit a place again in a big contest – he’s what US racing should be all about, the fans over there absolutely love him to bits
Haven’t seen Gabby’s Golden Gal’s race but from what you say it must have been some performance – presume the bet would be providing Zenyatta and Rachel go in the Classic?
Impressed with Fabulous Strike – looks like he’s a bigger and stronger horse this year and can go two better than last year at the Breeders Cup
I backed Pioneerof The Nile in the Derby and was left thinking I’ve been done by freakish luck in terms of the run that MTB got up the rail
Had Rachel in the Preakness – not normally a favourite backer but she’s not a normal horse
Onwards to the Breeders Cup – not had a bet in the big one as yet, not convinced by Rachel on proride and would like to see Zenyatta take on some more deserving competition before I consider backing her. Well Armed bombed at the meeting last year and I’ve no doubt that Pioneerof The Nile stays the 10f and enjoys the track but 14’s is a bit short at this stage
To put into words how exceptional Gabby’s peformance was, she set a similar first quarter to Fabulous Strike. Gabbys race was over considerably further and she just kept going – never challenged.
I think it’s Zenyatta’s year to go to the BCC. Last year all the talk was about how connections will target the Ladies Classic and then move on to the BCC in 2009. If Rachel targets the BCC too we’re in for one hell of a race. I’ve already taken the opinion that Masterofthehorse, if handling the surface, could be perfect for the BCC. His closing run style looks perfect for a race like that.
HTH, I would rather back MTB under an exaggerated waiting ride on an AW surface like Proride, (other than Fibresand, as today’s results showed yet again), than a front running effort. Polytrack isn’t best suited to front runners and Rachel, for one, will be there to be shot at.
MTB is made for Jamie Spencer, isn’t he.
As for the slop, MTB has shown he can run on three different surface textures in the last month and there is no reason to believe he won’t act in Santa Anita. We don’t know whether he
will
, granted, but we don’t know he won’t either and he has to go.
Is Presvis entered? MTB, Dunkirk, Rip Van Winkle, Sea The Stars, Quality Road, Rachel Alexander, and Presvis with two pacemakers. That would be worth paying mucho green to see.
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