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Embarrasing handicapping.
Fujin Dancer raised 2lbs for beating 74 and 66 rated horses at Mussleburgh, beaten in a claimer by a 62 rated 9yo the race before that.
Belle Noverre wins at Killarney two runs ago beating an Irish rated 79 horse in the process. She is competitive against high 70 and low 80 rated horses at Leopardstown last time, yet gets the same UK mark that she won off at Killarney today at Hamilton.
After you Shaun….
Came in at 9/1 too…another great ride for the up and coming jockey that is local man to me Marty Harley.
Killarney was not a handicap, so she did not really "win off" a mark at all.
The 79-rated horse she beat that day was presumably Maal, who was conceding 6 lb. Badger Or Bust was close behind, getting an approximate 6 lb beating, and finished last off 65 in the only handicap he has contested since.
Belle Noverre was indeed competitive against high 70 and low 80 rated horses at Leopardstown last time. But that WAS a handicap and Belle Noverre got weight off all the horses she finished in amongst.
She ran off 70 that day – finishing third – which was the same mark she ran off officially today.
All of which assumes the Irish and UK flat scales are the same, which they clearly are not. As proved again today with the mare having the race won at the 3 furlong pole.
No it does not. It was based on the same terms of reference you introduced in your embarrassing handicapping post.
Belle Noverre ran off an official mark of 70 – and got beat – in Ireland, then she ran off an official mark of 70 – and won – in Britain.
Clearly, the respective levels of the Irish and UK handicaps can not be "proved" by a one-off instance of a horse winning or losing a race.
My opening post assumes the scales are not equal, how could they be given its two different jurisdictions with no formal agreement between them. So why handicap horses as if it were and that’s before you even look at how a horse like Fujin Dancer gets treated by the same system in the same race. Result – The race is over 3 furlongs from the line.
Lazy handicapping and very unequitable.
- Total Posts 17716
I think Prufrock’s point is that it’s very difficult to gauge the relative merits of Irish and British handicapping on the basis of one horse and two races, and also that raising Belle Noverre’s handicap mark from her native 70 would have effectively handicapped her to lose.
If the handicapper got it right every time, we’d never have winning distances of more than a short-head in any handicap.
I would have thought the Yurituni-esque improvement of Puddle Duck would have been more of a concern to you anyway, Cav. I notice that David Barker was quoted in the Racing Post as having said that they were ‘just practicing in his other runs’.
Tongue-in-cheek or not, such a remark would certainly grab my attention over an Irish horse winning in England.
- Total Posts 17716
There are bound to be some obvious "handicap blots" when horses race for the first time in another country, under a different handicapping regime, and we’d have to agree that with hindsight Belle Noverre did get in lightly.
But as other posters have said, one swallow (or even a small flock of them) doesn’t make a summer. I don’t think there’s evidence to show an in-built pro-Irish bias along the lines of what happened when the NH handicappers got so wildly out of kilter a few years back.
Remember how those two Mark Johnson horses won their big Curragh handicaps on Irish Derby day, to see the boot on the other foot – and he only sent them over to fill up Monterosso’s plane.
Of course these things would happen less if there were more interchange at handicap level. High though travel costs may be, I’m as surprised that more
French
trainers don’t send their handicappers to
England
, as I am that more
English
ones don’t send theirs to
Ireland
. How come the Irish show that much more initiative? Of course it’s as small a hop to Musselburgh or Hamilton as to Down Royal or Downpatrick, so no surprise that many of these "coups" occur in Scotland or Northern England.
Fujin Dancer wasn’t raised 2lbs for his win in Musselburgh given his OR was 72 in Beverley for his most recent win prior to today.
The conditions of todays race ensured that he was alloted a 6lb penalty for any race won after 6th August. As a result he carried the same weight a horse rated 78 would.
Some good points, no doubt handicapping Irish horses on Irish form is a much bigger issue over the jumps. Yes it is difficult to gauge relative merits between countries but why not then take a more conservative view?
The connections of the UK horses who went to the expense of competing at Hamilton for a relatively decent prize today never had a chance based on the "it was beaten off 70 in Ireland, stick a 70 on it today" method of handicapping.
Would you send your horse to the races based on the scenario above? I wouldn’t, particularly when you see how a horse like Fujin Dancer gets treated in the same race.
Didn’t catch up the Puddle Duck story, armchair, although at a glance I don’t see anything too eye-catching in the formbook.
Embarrasing handicapping.
Fujin Dancer raised 2lbs for beating 74 and 66 rated horses at Mussleburgh, beaten in a claimer by a 62 rated 9yo the race before that.
Belle Noverre wins at Killarney two runs ago beating an Irish rated 79 horse in the process. She is competitive against high 70 and low 80 rated horses at Leopardstown last time, yet gets the same UK mark that she won off at Killarney today at Hamilton.
After you Shaun….
I backed belle noverre purely on the form from june 16th .Take a look !! Fastest horse in the race running off a quick pace.The june 16 race was a class 5 ran like a class 4.
Ah yes, the Hamilton in June run. She cant win off 63 in Ireland so lets put her on the ferry where the 30 second handicapper will surely give her the same mark.
Result, well backed and –
"…came right away to win well, leading over 1f out and drawing right away"
Deja Vu.
I would have thought the Yurituni-esque improvement of Puddle Duck would have been more of a concern to you anyway, Cav. I notice that David Barker was quoted in the Racing Post as having said that they were ‘just practicing in his other runs’
There was no Yurituni-esque improvement in Puddle Duck – John Whitley’s ratings, which have long stood the test of time, had either of Puddle Duck’s last two efforts as the best pieces of form in the race. You would be hard pressed to say it hadn’t been trying on its last two runs either.
Ah yes, the Hamilton in June run. She cant win off 63 in Ireland so lets put her on the ferry where the 30 second handicapper will surely give her the same mark.
Result, well backed and –
"…came right away to win well, leading over 1f out and drawing right away"
Deja Vu.
yep even the time was near the same !!
There was no Yurituni-esque improvement in Puddle Duck – John Whitley’s ratings, which have long stood the test of time, had either of Puddle Duck’s last two efforts as the best pieces of form in the race. You would be hard pressed to say it hadn’t been trying on its last two runs either.
Tend to agree with that, even without JW’s ratings.
yep even the time was near the same !!
Tell that to the handicapper.
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