Becher Chase 2012

[rich1985]

Too young, need an old warrior in a race like this.

[peter .h]

Here’s my idea of a comprehensive look…

Ballabriggs

– Has only had a couple runs since landing the National back in 2011, so whether or not he is up for a test over much shorter is a little unknown. Did run encouragingly well over 2, 6 in Kelso when clearly wanting further. Seems to suggest he ticks all the right boxes, but under top weight in a competitive field, i’d be wanting to look elsewhere.

Join Together

– Was a useful novice who was bred to stay and enjoy this kind of test. However he only has one higher in the weights than he does and with limited form on soft ground and no previous experience over the Aintree fences, i can’t have him. No reason to suggest he won’t run well, however.

Big Fella Thanks

– Having only his second run in roughly 18 months, but has shown a liking to these fences. Was supposed to come here last season, but missed it due to injury. Will like the ground and love the fences, but i think the trip will suit others better.

Problema Tic

– A young age to be trying out these fences, but 6yo’s have gone well in the past. Trip seems perfect and the ground will suit. Only thing holding him back is no previous Aintree experience, but that by no means rules him out.

Swing Bill

– Disappointed here last season, but ran a screamer for a long way in the National when the ground suited better. The ground is looking soft again this year and so i’m not going to take a chance on him this time around.

West End Rocker

– Won this convincingly last season, but has disappointed subsequently bar one nice run last time out. Every box ticked here once again and should go well. Worth remembering however that he has fallen twice over these fences and made a hash of the first fence in this last year.

Mumbles Head

– Another appealing entry with good form over the distance and on soft ground. Another who’s worth watching, but keep in mind this is his first try over the Aintree fences. Not an essential tool, but 12 of the 20 past winners of this race had Aintree experience before taking this.

Poker De Sivola

– Looks an intriguing runner on first look, but after looking deeper into the form; i will definitely be looking elsewhere. Hasn’t got great form over the distance or on soft ground. Throw that in with him not having previous Aintree runs and i simply can’t have him.

Any Currency

– A horse who excited me when i first saw his name in the list of entries. Looks the perfect type for this kind of race and of all the horses who tick all the right boxes bar past Aintree experience; this one seems best of the lot.

In Compliance

– Ran a great race in the National to finish fifth. Is from Old Vic, but that’s all this one has going for him. Distance doesn’t seem right and the ground probably won’t suit. Three Grand National winning jockeys get the leg up in this and Nial Madden gets the ride on this 12yo.

Midnight Haze

– Unconsidered outsider in the National back in April, when finishing last of 15. However has a good record over this kind of distance and on soft ground. Ticks in all the right boxes and 25/1 seems an absolute steal.

Fabalu

Another horse who ticks all the right boxes and gets in on a low weight. 20/1 is very generous, but can be known to run a bad race ever once in a while.

Gullible Gordon

– Fell when fancied in this 2 years ago and has failed to shine since. Can’t fancy this one.

Hello Bud

– Nice to see the old boy back. Looked like running a big race when unseating at the Canal Turn last year and ran an amazing race in the National despite his age, showing he still has a little spirit left. Has run well twice already this season, but this seems too competitive for a horse who’s now long in the tooth. Looking forward to seeing him though.

Minella Theatre

– Stayed on to finish sixth behind Always Waining in the Grand Sefton, but doesn’t have any solid form over this distance and ground. A stone out the handicap and can’t fancy.

Ballyvesey

– Has run well in this race twice already and looks geared up for the race. Now 7yo and has all the correct ticks in the correct boxes. Is over a stone out of the handicap, but that won’t bother me given his history in the race. This race just might be a tad too competitive.

Of the lot of them; Ballabriggs, West End Rocker, Midnight Haze, Fabalu and Ballyvesey all have the correct credentials for the race. Ballabriggs just might find the weight too much and Fabalu can often be a tad vulnerable at times. That leaves me with…

West End Rocker
Midnight Haze
Ballyvesey

Of the three of them i’d be more inclined to go for Midnight Haze. West End Rocker is a little short for me at 5/1 and Ballyvesey is merely an E/W prospect. Modnight Haze at a big price for me.

[The Young Fella]

The rain continues to fall in Liverpool – I’ve never known anything like it! It is going to be an absolute bog.

[TomBarkley87]

The rain continues to fall in Liverpool – I’ve never known anything like it! It is going to be an absolute bog.

I see my tribal rain dance hasn’t been going without reward then

[elgransenor1]

I think front-runners are greatly favoured over these national fences. it’s such an advantage to be up in the van out of trouble, with all the trouble going on in behind.

you can pretty much picture already this join together up there jumping for fun. I’m not sure the horse is that well handicapped, but nicholls has a great record in big races on a saturday recently so it’s a bit of a no-brainer.

[elgransenor1]

added poker de sivola. if it becomes a slog it should be right up his street, as he stays further.

1.pt join together
1.pt poker de sivola

[Gingertipster]

Ballabriggs @ 8/1 looks very interesting, but will team McCain have him spot on? Dare say a fourth place and being dropped a few more pounds for April wouldn’t go amiss! May be I’ll wait and see whether there’s positive signs from market confidence before backing him.

Value Is Everything

[Seven Towers]

My 3 against the field are;
West End Rocker – If he gets round he looks difficul to beat but it is a big if considering he’s fallen on 2 of his 3 outings over these fences.
Big Fella Thanks – Good course form and in boggy conditions
Fabalu – Completed the course in the Topham so can handle the fences but this trip should be more to his liking and so should the ground.

i note that on the RP site that the going stick reading is only 4.0 how low does it have to go before it is called off?

[The Young Fella]

added poker de sivola. if it becomes a slog it should be right up his street, as he stays further.

1.pt join together
1.pt poker de sivola

I thought about Poker De Sivola for a while, but he ended up being the first one I binned. Timmy Murphy said in an interview after winning at Sandown: "He needs it real quick. He doesn’t go a yard in soft ground".

[stevecaution]

For me, the first few in the betting look shorter than their actually chances warrant. I’ve been up and down the field and keep coming back to BallaBriggs. For his age, he doesn’t have too many miles on the clock and he had a light season last time around. Put in a thoroughly respectable performance in trying to defend his National crown and I am not sure he is as much of a plodder as some National winners. At 10/1 with Boylesports I reckon he’s worth a fiver each way, particularly if all 16 run and 4th place is up for grabs.

Happy punting.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[rich1985]

Surely this is Ballabriggs prep run before the National? If its a front runner you need, look no further than Hello Bud. Great jumper, good stayer, course winner, only slight issue is the ground. WEN is the one to beat though I think.

[pyewacket]

Hope its not one race too many for the lovely old warrior, come home safe Hello Bud you don’t need to prove you can run this course. Hope he is retired soon he’s 15 soon surely he’s done enough and should be kept safe before something happens to him after all the yard keep saying how loved he is.

[The Young Fella]

West End Rocker or Ballabriggs for me. West End Rocker will handle the conditions, will appreciate going a few strides slower than the National and well-treated compared to most.

I think Ballabriggs WILL be fit for this – don’t see it as a prep run at all. Amberleigh House took this race seriously and I expect connections will be more adventurous with the now 11-y-o Ballbriggs this season as his racing career comes towards its end.

I like Big Fella Thanks, but don’t think of him as the strongest stayer. Sure, he has run in Grand Nationals, but always finishes tamely over the longer trips. Any Currency and Ballyvesey also interesting, but I don’t think they are treated as well as West End Rocker.

[peter .h]

Midnight Haze and Any Currency for me. Watch out for Ballyvesey to finish in a place.

[elgransenor1]

amazing performance from a veteran there and great call from rich.

[The Young Fella]

Wow, that was one of those moments that reminds you how great racing is! I really thought Join Together was going to run him down, that line took so long to come.

For coincidence fans, Hello Bud is 14 years old, carried number 14, won at 14/1 and held on by about 1/4 of a length in the end.

[TomBarkley87]

Good old thing, I raise a glass to you. Not the result my wallet wanted but I can make an exception for the old boy.

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