The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Beating low rated horses

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks Beating low rated horses

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 29 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #3087
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    Just something that I thought I’d bring up following Deep Impact’s defeat in the Arc. He reminds me in a way of Dubai Millennium (ON TURF I must stress).

    Both these horses have been given "great horse" superlatives but when you disect their form it makes interesting reading.

    Both horses in their races were visuably very impressive and looked like world beaters but :

    Deep Impact – Twice has raced against 125 rated plus opposition. First occasion beaten by Hearts Cry, second time beaten in the Arc. Ran great races on both ocassions but limitations exposed against better horses?

    Dubai Millennium – Only ever beat two horses rated above 119, Almushtarak (120) and Sendawar over ten furlongs when the French horse didn’t stay and was given a poor ride.

    To be a genuine great horse surely you have to beat top horses rather than win by wide margins or be visuably impressive in your performances?

    Deep Impact has to beat top horses rated in the late 120’s at least when they’re at their best to prove to be a genuine great horse.

    Dubai Millennium didn’t compete against (on turf I stress) one horse rated above 120 that was at its best and / or had its ideal conditions on the day.

    Don’t get me wrong both horses are / were obviously very good horses, Deep Impact I’ll probably rate around 128 after his Arc run (his best run on ratings) and Dubai Millennuim I rated 133.

    My point is though horses like these get wrongly hyped as being up there with the likes of Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard and the like.

    The eye can be deceptive!

    Anyone got an alternative view? Am I speaking nonsense? Be interesting to read peoples views.

    <br>

    (Edited by The Market Man at 6:46 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)

    #78497
    newyork
    Member
    • Total Posts 215

    your talking a lot of sense there, dubai millennium is the most over rated horse of recent years who beat horse’s who where no better than group 2, the best horse he raced against did not stay the 10 furlongs in the prince of wales stakes, his win in dubia looked impressive but again what did he beat<br>

    (Edited by newyork at 7:15 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)

    #78498
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    It’s all about performance imo, a horse can put in a TOP class performance (130+) but that does not mean he/she is a TOP class horse overall

    HR was a 126 horse before the 2005 Arc imo, put in a TOP class, 131+ peformance when winning and has returned to 126 this year, other horses have done the same, Motivator put in a 129+ Derby wining performace, but overall a 125/6 horse

    Rakti 133, overall 128

    Horses like High Chapparal, capable of consistently putting in high 120’s/130+ performances are in my opinion the TOP class horses

    <br>Thats my thinking anyway ;)

    #78499
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    Quote: from empty wallet on 7:12 pm on Oct. 1, 2006[br]It’s all about performance imo, a horse can put in a TOP class performance (130+) but that does not mean he/she is a TOP class horse overall

    HR was a 126 horse before the 2005 Arc imo, put in a TOP class, 131+ peformance when winning and has returned to 126 this year, other horses have done the same, Motivator put in a 129+ Derby wining performace, but overall a 125/6 horse

    Rakti 133, overall 128

    Horses like High Chapparal, capable of consistently putting in high 120’s/130+ performances are in my opinion the TOP class horses

    <br>Thats my thinking anyway ;)

    <br>I don’t know how Motivator was ever rated 129 that was seriously too high in my opinion.

    Hurricane Run to be fair hasn’t had ideal conditions since his Arc win, he’s had small fields and average paces to contend with.

    However, I completely take your point and agree with it to a fair extent.

    It could be argued that to be a genuine great horse you have to be more adaptable than Hurricane Run?

    (Edited by The Market Man at 7:18 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)

    #78500
    empty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    You can argue all day/week/year/s as to what a rating should have or not been awarderd, but at the end of the day, it’s only one compilers opinion.

    The horses overall career  will tell you how good/average or poor a horse is/was imo

    (Edited by empty wallet at 7:32 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)

    #3091
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Interested to read DI’s trainer’s comments about coming back next year – I was under the impression that this was his last run. Anyone shed any light whether I gotten this all backwards?

    #78589
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Would be great to see him back this year. I didnt not think he would win the race but serious credit to connections for taking him over for the race.

    What I found remarkable was the similar way both Japanese horses (DI and Hearts Cry) finished their races. A furlong out in both their races (Arc and King George) they looked the winners only to be run out of it in the finish. I know Deep Impact has won over 2 miles so it sounds silly to say it, but on each occassion the European horses looked to outstay and out guts it with the Japanese counter parts.

    #78590
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    I wonder if Deep Impact was fully fit after his layoff.

    #78591
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 438

    I, too, noticed that Deep Impact’s finishing effort was reminiscent of his compatriot’s at Ascot. Having been on the bridle entering the straight (it looked a question of "How far?" at that point) the horse found nothing, suggesting that he wasn’t at peak fitness- much as was the case with Heart’s Cry in the King George.

    In my opinion, Take rode the wrong race on the colt: having been pilloried by the media for the White Muzzle debacle and fearing a slow pace, he kept the favourite too close to the pace yesterday and the usual finishing kick simply wasn’t there.

    It brought to mind Christophe Soumillon’s ill-judged ride on Dalakhani in the 1993 Irish Derby, when his mount (essentially a speed horse) was outstayed by his conqueror, Alamshar. Deep Impact, despite having won in the highest class over two miles, is also essentially a speed horse, as far as middle-distance performers go: watch the videos of his performances and you will see that he just scythes the opposition down with a stunning prolonged burst of speed.

    I would think that the Japanese team will do two things differently next year: Deep Impact will have a prep race and there will be a pacemaker for him. Although the 2007 Arc is along way off, and Rail Link may develop even further as a four year old, the Japanese superstar  is going to take all the beating.

    #78501
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I think it’s a very relevant point Market Man, EW sums it up pretty well for me.

    I would add that horses aren’t machines and there is a deviation about a mean regarding a horses overall performance.

    In my view, the better class horses have a smaller deviation and the lower class of horses a bigger one. <br>

    #3187
    apalachee
    Participant
    • Total Posts 61

    BBC reports "Traces of ipratropium, which acts in nasal sprays for the treatment of lung diseases, were found in urine samples…..in routine test following the four-year-old’s third-place finish in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris two weeks ago"

    Just as well he didn’t win isn’t it!

    #80538
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    Not too sure about that comment, Mortisha :o

    #80539
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    starting drug or stopping drug? would it explain his below par run?:cool:

    #80540
    aston
    Member
    • Total Posts 168

    Are you suggesting the horse was "got at" Zorro?

    #80541
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    no, aston. just a silly remark. interesting that he might have had a breathing problem though.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 29 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.