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Formath,
A 45% strike-rate and odds of evens can turn a profit given the right staking plan? This wouldn’t work using level stakes and every systems exponent’s work I’ve ever read state categorically that if a system cannot produce a level stakes profit, no staking plan can change this in the long run. I don’t know how even the celebrated VDW could get round that obstacle – to do so would seem to be mathematically impossible in the long run, unless all these even moneychances should really be 4/6. Perhaps that is the trick.
4.00 Southwell
Qadar (13/8) – up 3lbs, Won 1st of 10 +shd, strong run final furlong to lead. Has a good chance and headgear worked well last time. Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 141.37<br>Waterside (5/4 Won) – up 7lbs, 2nd of 9 -.75 of a  length, ridden, kept on under pressure. Has a bit to find at the weights (same owner as Qadar so an eye on the market could be in order – just shows it’s not only track form that matters lol).<br>Bahamian Pirate (9/1) – up 10lbs, 5t of 9, stayed on not reach leaders. Claim at the weight but not an AW runner IMO.<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:32 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)
Dave,<br>(Just some housekeeping) There was a typo in the blog address below my signature that has been corrected. Also you can get through to my blog via the link on my homepage. You will need to dig into the past entries to get back to the original concept.<br>(No problems with constructive criticism owing to the fact that I have been married for 50 years lol).
Artemis,<br>I agree wholeheartedly that in general you should not bet at short odds, however, as this is a ‘system’ it is necessary to keep to the rules. In this case that we back any selection at even money or longer. I should add that I am not a disciple of the VDW cult but just posted this thread for interest sake, not that the VDW methodology is a bad place to begin for a novice punter.
(Just to go off the thread topic) The price you should take depends on your view of a runners chance, or that of the pundit you follow. Considering a couple of races at Taunton today and calculating the odds from RPR opinion of fancied runners:<br>3.40 Norton Sapphire 13/2 (SP 7/4 3rd) , Pyleigh Lady 15/2 (SP 3/1 2nd) , Rockys Girl 18/1 (SP 11/1 Won) – according to the f/c it doesn’t look as though anything is worth backing<br>4.10 Bill’s Echo 6/1 (SP 7/2 4th) , She’s Our Native 6/1 (SP 7/1 7th) , Stan 8/1 (SP 3/1 3rd) – the absence of Maljimar has thrown the f/c into disarray so I am not sure where we are, perhaps She’s Our Native might make the RPR odds.<br>In comparison for the same race Adrian Massey’s odds calculated form the race ratings are :<br>4.10 Bill’s Echo 10/1, She’s Our Native 9/2, Stan 10/1 – so in the case of pundits identify one that you respect and stick with them. His top selection in this race is Wild Power 9/2 (SP 10/1 9th).
(Edited by Formath at 2:01 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:41 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)
3.40 Leicester<br>Mokum (4/1 3rd) – up 18lbs, Won 1st of 13 +.75 of a length, headway, stayed on under pressure. C&D December but my concern is the weight increase? Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 139.37<br>Sitting Duck (5/1) – up 6lbs, Won 1st of 11 +1.75 lengths, ridden, hung right, all out. Stamina is the doubt?<br>Lizzie Bathwick (10/1 3rd) – down 4lbs, 3rd of 17 -15 lengths, not fluent, outpaced, stayed on flat. Reliability and also class are concerns?
I considered the Lei 3.10 too but decided it was even more trappy than the race elected. John Forbes would have been the selection with 3 creditable runs this term but up 11lbs, followed by Burntoakboy but up 17lbs?
(Edited by Formath at 6:29 pm on Jan. 31, 2007)
3.10 Wincanton<br>Flying Enterprise (6/4 2nd) – up 19lbs? Won 1st of 10 +8 lengths, challenged, led, stayed on strongly. Developed into a good chaser, up in weight but dropping back in D. Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 136.37<br>Trouble At Bay (7/4) – up 5lbs, 2nd of 6 -10 lengths, challenged, bumped, outpaced by winner, said to have been out of sorts and a better run expected today.
(Edited by Formath at 5:53 pm on Feb. 1, 2007)
2.25 Catterick<br>Milan Deux Mille (7/2 Won) – up 2lbs, Won 1st of 10 +7 lengths, clear, well in command. Progressive and gets on well with jockey Malone. Stake 4 points +14 pts, due 0, bank 150.37 and 30 points up since starting Jan 23<br>Sound Of Cheers (11/2) – down 7lbs, 3rd of 7 -5.5 lengths, headed, one-paced. Off a handy mark.<br>Cumbrian Knight (13/2 2nd) – down 14lbs, 3rd of 6 (penultimate race), headway, outpaced, no impression. 3rd here in December.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £26.63 and Exacta £35
(Edited by Formath at 6:07 pm on Feb. 2, 2007)
Formath,
Nice to see you in profit. Well done.
What is the maximum bet in points on your staking system?
Artemis,<br>I suppose you could carry on increasing the staking progression for as long as you could place the bets. However, in my case I decided to risk a bank of 120 points and that covers a straight losing run of 1 – 15.<br>Hopefully, my selection technique will be good enough so that I don’t break the bank I have allowed, in fact if I keep sweeping off the surplus every time I go over the original I won’t finish in such bad shape anyway.
1.35 Sandown<br>Madison Du Berlais (8/1 Lost) – down 3lbs, Won 1st of 9 +4 lengths, led 9th, clear next, eased. Improver up in class.<br>Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 149.37<br>Andreas (9/2 3rd) – up 1lb, 3rd of 11 -4 lengths, challenged then one-paced. Not performed as well as expected.<br>One Way (11/1) – up 12lbs? 2nd of 5 -5 lengths, kept on well, no chance with winner. Likely to go well.<br>2.40 Sandown<br>New Little Bric (10/11 Won) – down 2lbs, Won 1st of 3 +41 lengths, led 6th, unchallenged. Popped round at Exeter, up in class here. Odds-on no bet<br>Aztec Warrior (7/2 2nd) – down 3lbs, Won 1st of 5 +5 lengths, 9 lengths ahead, eased. Improving chaser.<br>All Star (10/3) – up 1 lb, Won 1st of 7 +1.75 lengths, quickened to lead, ran on well. has decent turn of foot.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £2.43
(Edited by Formath at 5:03 pm on Feb. 3, 2007)
There is no selection today except on the off-chance that Degas Art by some fluke makes even money.<br>2.30 Musselburgh<br>Degas Art (2/5 Won) – up 2lbs, Won 1st of 5 +.5 of a length, kept on under pressure, held on. Improvement likely and is the one  to beat.<br>Purple Moon (9/4 2nd) – up 12lbs? Won 1st of 12 +3 lengths, ridden and quickened to lead. Capable of better
(Edited by Formath at 6:44 pm on Feb. 4, 2007)
2.00 Hexham<br>Dom D’Orgeval (2/5 Won) – up 3lbs, Won 1st of 6 +4 lengths, led 3 out, clear, heavily eased. Jumped well on debut at fakenham. Odds-on no bet<br>L’Antartique (7/2 2nd) – down 1lb, Won 1st of 4 +1 length (penultimate race), headed, regained lead, stayed on strongly. Had an unlucky fall at Kelso and can do better.
2.30<br>Open De L’Isle (2/1 Lost)) – up 4lbs, 6th of 9 -18 lengths, weakened hcap hdl Cheltenham. Stamina is the concern? Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 147.37<br>San Peire (7/2 3rd) – down 5lbs, 3rd of 10 -15 lengths, kept on for modest 3rd. Has not been on song.
(Edited by Formath at 5:37 pm on Feb. 5, 2007)
i,ll try again as my first contribution, i,m a fan of vdw but did not like his method of finding the class horses in the race i have came up with an other method, by using the weekender take the best handicap mark {theirs} x the best speed rating and divide by 100 to give you a rating it seems to work ok but just started anyone else done anything the same
class tells,
Dividing the (best form rating + best speed rating) by 2 will give you a class rating on the same scale as that used by the official handicap. Personally, I would just use the form rating and perhaps knock a few pounds off if the horse’s speed rating was not on a par with its form rating.
Having worked these out, how do you use them?
hello artemis i like to use them in the same style as vdw as horses that are in the top class,in the first favs, and good form figs and been shown to running well at the end of their races,and as a filter has ran a handicap figure 7lbs or more using racing post,handicap marks to show it maybe well in
No good class races today so this one from Southwell is really to keep the sequence going and avoid having a blank day.<br>3.40 Southwell<br>Sweet Pickle (5/1 3rd Lost) – up 10lbs? Won d/h =1st of 8, held up, headway, joined leader on line. Got up on the line to dead-heat at Wolverhampton. Stake 3 points lost,due 9, bank 144.37<br>Black Sea Pearl (3/1 2nd) – up 12lbs? Won 1st of 8 =2 lengths, ridden, stayed on to lead. May prefer farther?<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:28 pm on Feb. 6, 2007)
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