Basic Van der Wheil

[spranger]

Hi all
Onefurlongout
Balthazaars gift 15/2 Shame it wasnt your first pick!!!
Today
2.50Newcastle Sundae
sp

[Formath]

4.25 York Oct 12

IMVHO this is the one race today with the attributes of a VDW key race, although it is fairly low-grade. Assessed by the basic methodolgy and the platform confirmed by RPR and Formcast. The outcome was that it seems like a race where VDW would probably have stated ‘the alarm bells should be ringing’ or possibly, ‘best left to what it cried out for i.e., making your own "book" within the market:

Stars
4 Digital (down on £ class and not supported by RPR), a player in this
4 Princess Ellis (down on £ class and not supported by RPR) has claims from the 20 draw
3 Funfare Wayne (not in first 6 of RP betting f/c and inconsistent), one to consider
3 Paris Bell (not in first 6 of RP betting f/c and inconsistent), one to take on here

I attempted to confirm the assessment by taking the measure of the 5 top £ class and from them the top 3 consistent:

£ Class
245 Funfare Wayne 15*
115 Coseadrom 26 (best time runner in the race)
64 Paris Bell 25
59 Highland Warrior 23*
52 Digital 7*

[maggsy]

Formath i think the 3.15 was a better race to look at because it’s a better class race.

[Formath]

From several contests that IMO can be considered VDW key races I have opted to assess the one with the best class.

1.45 Ascot Oct 13

Stars (out of 6)
6 Queen’s Best, progressive and a leading player
5 Brisk Breeze, (down on £ Class) tough, reliable and proven
3 Samira Gold, (just behind on £ Class & consistency) improver and a contender
3 Rising Cross, (down in betting f/c & consistency) something to prove
3 Winter Sunshine, (down in £ Class, RPR & Formcast) Stoute yard 2nd string and needs to improve

[Formath]

I began this assessment with high hopes and ran out of steam as I progressed mainly because so many of the field have been off track for so long. However, rather than waste the effort I valued what I had and priced it up. Not strictly VDW I know:

Carlisle 3.45 Oct 25

3/1 Bafana Boy, dropped 1lb, LTO 2/14 -1.25L, effort and every chance, kept on run in
4/1 Arctic Ghost, dropped 8lbs, LTO Won 1/4 +4L, left in lead, stayed on well, ridden out
11/2 Undeniable, up 22lbs? LTO 9/18 -41L, weakened
6/1 Do L’Enfant D’Eau, dropped 19lbs, 4/11 -27L, no danger
13/2 Nirvana Swing, up 9lbs, L2O PU, PU
10/1 Arresting, up 3lbs, LTO 9/14 -12.5L, no impression

I am afraid that is the best I can do with it.

[grand lodge]

A muddling affair, Formath.

Undeniable, is undeniably (sorry , I couldn’t help that one) the class horse and Bafana Bay is definitely the form horse. Albeit, for the latter, I think the distance is too short today.

GL

[Formath]

Considered this race but found the abilty, consistency and form doesn’t really gel. Not a ‘key’ race IMVHO:

Doncaster 3.25 26 Oct

5/1 Tamagin
11/2 Barney McGrew
17/2 Obe Gold
9/1 Out After dark
9/1 Jimmy Styles
14/1 Wyatt Earp
14/1 Golden Dixie

[Formath]

My main interest is in UK mainland racing but I have had a look at this for interest. The prices given are as ever just my opinion of their chance on form:

Monmouth Oct 27

8/15 Dylan Thomas, dropped 5lbs, LTO Won 1/12 +hd, ran on to lead driven out. Best horse in the race, but needs a strong pace and more rain will not suit
9/4 English Channel, LTO Won 1/7 +2.25L, led, ran on well. Looks tough to beat on this tight track
11/4 Red Rocks, dropped 7lbs, LTO 4/6 -6L, moderate, no impression. Rain would help.
15/2 Better Talk Now
15/1 Shamdinan
28/1 Grand Couturiere

[Formath]

This is a 2yo race and with their limited form record I am always aware that something likeTajaaweed here could kick me in the teeth , however I have given it a go as it is a cracking contest.

Doncaster 3.40 Oct 27

15/8 Curtain Call, dropped 1lb, LTO 1/9 +4L, ridden clear, stayed on well, easily. Improver but has to act on the going.
9/4 Ibn Khaldun, LTO 1/8 +1L, pushed into lead, comfortably. Improver and should be more to come
4/1 City Leader, up 2lbs, LTO 1/11 +.75L, ridden to lead, soon hard pressed, kept on gamely. Acts on fast going but tougher today
11/2 River Proud, up 2lbs, LTO 1/8 +.75L, ridden to lead, ran on. Improver and could be thereabouts if getting the trip.
11/2 Declaration Of War, LTO 2/8 -2.5L, led briefly, soon headed, stayed on under pressure. Conditions suit but others may be too good

[Formath]

This surely has to be the start of the jumping season proper. A VDW ‘key’ race if ever I saw one

Aintree 2.40 Oct 28

5/6 Kauto Star, LTO 1/18 +2.5L, quickened to lead, stayed on strongly. Highest rated jumper, depends on fitness.
7/4 Exotic Dancer, dropped 9lbs, LTO 1/5 +13L, soon quickened well clear, easily. Second highest rated jumper and will need to jump well
11/2 Monet’s Garden, dropped 14lbs, LTO 1/6 +3.5L, led 3 out, ridden right out. Has weight advantage and goes well on early seasonal appearances
28/1 Ashley Brook, dropped 16lbs, PenTO 2/8 -11L, no chance with winner, clear 2nd. More to prove than the others, Cse? D? G?

[Formath]

Wincanton 3.25 Nov 10

13/8 Abragante, quirky but a leading contender, off track 182 days?
100/30 Ardaghey, looks to have a reasonable chance
9/2 Alderburn, injured but progressed well, 231 days off track?
13/2 Turthen
17/2 Dunbrody Millar
15/1 Irish Wolf
35/1 Bowleaze
35/1 Tom Sayers

[Formath]

Ascot 1.50 Nov 24 (A key race no doubt )
Stars
5 Hardy Eustace (13/8 ), 10-y-o but impressive in this race last year
5 Wichita Lineman (6/1), progress possible but D not ideal
4 Detroit City (11/4), will surgery have done the trick ?
4 Afsoun (100/30), 5-y-o has to be respected
2 Kings Quay (10/1)
1 Cloone River (16/1)
1 Lough Derg (33/1)
0 Overstrand ?

The odds in paranthes were arrived at after valuing and pricing the stars including an increment for the book margin. They represent the minimum odds for anyone wishing to make their own book to coupled odds.

[Formath]

Haydock 2.05 Nov 24 (Another key race)

Stars
5 Kauto Star (40/95), has to be the one
5 Exotic Dancer (3/1), not well in
3 My Way De Solzen (7/1), fitness level may be a disadvantage
3 Beef Or Salmon (15/1) has failed on UK mainland

[maggsy]

Well done Formath with the two winners.

[Formath]

Not a key race IMO but quite reasonable for Monday racing.

Ludlow 2.20 Nov 26
Stars
5 Herecomestanley (11/10 my odds), will have to jump well round this sharp track.
5 Spring Lover (3/1), Has gone well fresh before.
4 Marked Man (5/1), 11yo now and a hard race win LTO.
4 Gan Eagla (7/1)
3 Glimmer Of Hope (7/1)
3 Rajam (22/1)
0 Fu Manchu
0 Rooster’s Reunion

[goodlife]

In the money again, and at a value price.Well done, Formath. Do you think you have VDW sorted?

[maggsy]

Well done Formath last 4 have won. Remember what VDW said though think hard about the factor of temperrament and refrain from throwing away the advantage so far gained.

[Author]

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