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I trust it’s OK to post these on here? I have posted elsewhere and it appears there is not a great deal of interest. Staking as per the original staking plan proposed by VDW to a bankroll of 120 points covering for an initial straight losing run of 15. No bets on qualifiers shorter than evens SP (confidence is everything lol)
SOUTHWELL Jan 23. Going forecast as Standard.
3.40 Forecast as a fairly open hcap.<br>California Laws – down 3lbs, Won 1st of 10 +neck, ridden to lead inside final furlong. Unbeaten record at track and trip will suit. Stake 1 point win. <br>(11/8 Won = +1.37 points = Bank 121.37 points)<br>Jimmy The Guesser (8/1 3rd) – down 8lbs, 3rd of 9 -5 lengths, ridden to chase, driven, one pace. Vulnerable to progressive sorts. <br>Waterside (4/1 2nd) – down 7lbs, 5th of 7 -2 lengths, ridden, headed, faded. Yet to win off such a high mark.
In races like this where the main selection is at shortish odds Nick Mordin claims it’s favourable to bet it with others that you fancy in a computer straight forecast, which today paid £6.52. Just a thought.
(Edited by Formath at 5:53 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)
Welcome Formath. :wave:
Please feel free to post your selections here.
Any new contributors are always very welcome.
Good luck for today.
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:<br>
Hi Formath,
Welcome and good luck. There isn’t a great deal of interest on this part of the forum, but if your methods are able to consistently show a profit, then interest will pick up.
I presume from your initial selections that you are looking at horses who have been dropped by the handicapper to what looks to be a winning mark.
Thank you for the interest shown. I’m loooking at class, consistency balanced with a couple of ratings. <br>Huntingdon 2.00<br>Another Promise (8/11 Won) – down 5lbs, Won 1st of 9 +9 lengths, led, drew clear, readily. Improver but shorter D on sharper track this time poses a question? No bet at odds-on SP, but you could have had the straight forecast at £2.05.<br>Royal Shakespeare (Non-runner) – up 8lbs, Won 1st of 6 +10 lengths, led, mistake, driven clear. Soft ground would be against chance.<br>Rasharrow (6/5 2nd) – down 4lbs, 4th of 6 -13.5 lengths, mistake, plugged on. Jumping has to improve from last outing.
Huntingdon 3.00<br>Dream Alliance (13/8 Lost) – down 2lbs, 2nd of 6 -12 lengths, hit 2 out, soon headed, beaten. Chance to make amends here after failing on heavy. Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 120.37 points.Moncadou (5/4 Lost) – same weight, 2nd of 4 -1.5 lengths, kept on but not pace of winner. Has the class but not sure about the turn of foot.
(Edited by Formath at 2:33 pm on Jan. 24, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 3:20 pm on Jan. 24, 2007)
Warwick 2.10<br>Alfasonic (7/2 Lost) – up 2lbs, Won 1st of 13 +5 lengths, led, ridden, stayed on well. Lightly raced in form horse that goes on the ground. Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 118.37<br>Desert Tommy (7/1) – up 13lbs? 2nd of 9 -4 lengths, ridden, held, no extra. Could be thereabouts if hard race last time has not taken its toll.<br>Longueville Manor (7/1 3rd) – down 13lbs, 4th of 8 -30 lengths, headway, weakened after 3 out. 7 seconds from 15 starts indicates caution. Not at best last time and headgear left off.
Considered the Fontwell 2.50 as well and came up with Caribou – most experienced as a chaser but mistake, headed, soon beaten last time caused me to delete it.
(Edited by Formath at 3:13 pm on Jan. 25, 2007)
Hereford 3.50
Alphabetical (15/2 Lost)  – same weight, Won 1st of 11 +2.5 lengths, in command, went clear, kept on well. Won 1st time in cheekpieces and should go well. Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 115.37<br>Maletton (Evens 2nd)  – up 16lbs? Won 1st of 11 +.75 length, prominent, ridden, all out. Hard to beat if form holds up but 4th race in 12 days and weight carried is a concern?
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(Edited by Formath at 5:40 pm on Jan. 26, 2007)
Cheltenham 2.10
Black Jack Ketchum (4/7) – up 1lb, Won 1st of 5 +3 lengths, jumped into lead, soon in command, easily. High class and a strong chance. Odds-on SP no bet<br>Inglis Drever (9/2 2nd) – same weight, Won 1st of 5 +neck, driven, ran on strongly, held on well. Injured tendon was a setback and on comeback trail, needs a test of stamina.<br>Flight Leader (7/1 3rd) – down 7lbs, 4th of 9 -3.5 lengths, mistake, rallied, kept on. Top stayer with a tough task here.
Cheltenham 2.45
Our Vic ( 2/1 2nd) – same weight, Won 1st of 10 +7 lengths, shaken up, clear, comfortably. Leading chance but not totally confident as can be in and out. Stake 4 points lost, due 14, bank 111.37 points.<br>Exotic Dancer (6/1 Won) – down 4lbs, 2nd of 9 -8 lengths, went 2nd, blundered, no chance after. Stamina is the doubt here?<br>Halcon Generelardais (7/2 3rd) – up 3lbs, Won 1st of 18 +4 lengths, ridden to lead, driven out. has to inprove at this level to make it here.
(Edited by Formath at 3:14 pm on Jan. 27, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 3:16 pm on Jan. 27, 2007)
I’m sorry, but I’m not ‘getting’ this system.
Are you suggesting backing three horses in particular races, even if it means ending up betting very long odds on?
Artemis,<br>I am just attempting to narrow the field to 2/3 probables and considering their recent form, the selection being top of the list.
Wolverhampton 1.25<br>Grange Lili (6/1 Won) – down 2lbs, Won 1st of 10 +neck, headway, ran on to lead. Best effort over C&D should go well. Stake 5 points +30pts, due 0, bank 141.37 points.<br>Dress To Impress (4/5 2nd) – same weight, 3rd of 6 -2.5 lengths, headed, no extra. Being tried in cheekpieces.<br>Billy Ruffian – 3rd of 6 -1 length, ridden, stayed on. Improved on last 2 outings here and can be considered.
(Edited by Formath at 1:43 pm on Jan. 28, 2007)
Lingfield 4.20 Jan 29
Love Dubai (Evens Won) – up 1lb, Won 1st of 8 +1 length, led 1f out, stayed on. 2 wins at 1 mile+ at Wol, should go well. Stake 1 point + 1pt, due 0, bank +142.37<br>Daylami Dreams (11/4) – same weight, Won 1st of 7 +2 lengths, soon led, in command, ran on well, comfortably. Won C&D.<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:50 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)
Hi Formath, I dont believe that if you include backing the favourite in any system that you will make a long term profit. If you can narrow the field down to 2 or 3 runners then backing the longest priced selection must be the way to go?
Just a thought.
Sorry, Formath. I see from your first post that you have a main selection, the others being horses worth considering for the forecast.
I have to agree with dave that backing favourites is generally unprofitable, even more so now that the prices have been trimmed – since the over-rounds per runner have been increased. So, you probably need to look a bit further down your list of horses with chances to obtain ‘value’.
The concept of ‘Value’ has been thoroughly debated on the forum over the last few years and there is no consensus as to exactly what it means in the context of subjective probability events such as racing. I suppose if you can consistently turn a profit, you could argue that you were obtaining value. If you consistently beat the SP, you would appear to be obtaining value and should make a profit, but it’s not guaranteed. Food for thought.
Dave, Artemis,<br>I would not wish to get into a debate regarding ‘value’ as I came to terms with it long ago in regard to myself.<br>The conclusion was that ‘value’ is down to the capability of the individual in that after checking your strike-rate percentage you should only wager at fractional odds that are longer i.e., if your strike-rate is 25% then the shortest acceptable odds are 100-30. It is necessary to decide how far to check back as looking at my strike-rate percentage over the past 50 years to come up with odds to my advantage would be ridiculous. Sufficient to say nowadays I look back at the strike-rate percentage for my past 10 bets, but it could be 20 or 30 it depends on whether you be a lot or a little really.
With the VDW system here I am just following the rules. I should add that with the proposed staking plan a 45% strike-rate at Even money achieves the aim, so a couple at longer odds usually makes it well in (VDW may have dutched them to the same plan to achieve his claim of 80/90% winning bets, but that’s another story).
You should read my blog.
(Edited by Formath at 2:19 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)
Is there any chance you could put a link up to your blog Formath .. I copied and pasted the address into google and couldn’t find it.
The point I was making about the favourite was not about value, as such but more about the fact the favourites in any given race tend to be overbet because they are favourites, whether they be 10/3 or 7/4 .. I’m not critising, by the way, just my point of view.<br>:cool:
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