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final standings for the Non Vintage yard…
Aston > 9/28 > 16.38pts > +58.48%
Grasshopper > 4/20 > 7.57pts > +37.85%
Nick Hatton > 6/15 > -3.98pts > -26.52%
Sal > 20/234 > -63.75pts > -27.24%
Monkey > 2/5 > 2.44pts > +48.89%
Congratulations to both Aston and Grasshopper for doing so well. I expect you will have made it through!
Being an Excel-loving nerd, I have actually enjoyed my small input to this competition immensely. Sadly, I fear my interest is over (a quick calculation puts me in profit but in 6th place – d’oh!), but i would be happy to help if needed over the next stage, especially as I am now very familiar with the Aston and Grasshopper systems.<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 10:16 pm on Feb. 19, 2005)
The waiting is over – after an exciting final day we have the five contestants who will go on to the second phase of the contest and still have a chance of grabbing that generous £100 first prize put up by Barry Dennis. Without further ado –
1. Aston sel’s 9/28 p/l +16.38pts %p/l +58.48%<br>2. Letsgetracing sel’s 1/10 p/l +5pts %p/l +50%<br>3. Grasshopper sel’s 4/20 p/l +7.57pts %p/l +37.85%<br>4. Empty Wallet sel’s 3/10 p/l +3.75pts %p/l +37.5%<br>5. Lookingforawinner sel’s 4/15 p/l +5pts %p/l +33.33%
Sadly – the following contestants failed to qualify – bad luck all
6. Non Vintage sel’s 13/57 p/l +3.8pts %p/l +6.67%<br>7. Dave Jay sel’s 9/15 p/l -0.03pts %p/l -0.18%<br>8. Steve DG sel’s 17/34 p/l -0.28pts %p/l -0.82%<br>9. Andy Dawes sel’s 12/53 p/l -7.4pts %p/l -13.96%<br>10. Daylight sel’s 10/63 p/l -9.96pts %p/l -15.81%<br>11. Cormack15 sel’s 12/100 p/l -17.25pts %p/l -17.25%<br>12. Nick Hatton sel’s 6/15 p/l -3.98pts %p/l -26.52%<br>13. Sal sel’s 20/234 p/l -63.75pts %p/l -27.24%<br>14. Hoofhearted sel’s 15/68 p/l -19.83pts %p/l -29.16%<br>15. CP Gagie sel’s 2/10 p/l -3.5pts %p/l -35%<br>16. Barry Dennis sel’s 5/75 p/l -50.63pts %p/l -67.51%<br>17. Tooting sel’s 1/10 p/l -7pts %p/l -70%<br>18. Ace sel’s 0/14 p/l -14pts %p/l -100%
The following two contestants were unluckily eliminated as their systems didn’t produce at least ten selections. Unfortunately both systems were winning ones and both would have qualified for the final stage if they’d had more runners so it’s very bad luck to…
Dqd. Jairducochetfan sel’s 3/6 p/l +4.48pts %p/l +74.67%<br>Dqd. Monkey sel’s 2/5 p/l +2.44pts %p/l +48.89%
Congratulations then to the five qualifiers and commiserations to the others (especially Monkey and Jairducochetfan, whose system would have been top of the table if he’d had the appropriate number of selections).
An exciting last day with Letsgetracing storming up from last place into second courtesy of It Takes Time (won 14/1) who not only provided him with his only winner of the two weeks but also ensured he’d scrape in with the minimum 10 selections. All of which was bad news for Non Vintage who, despite a last day double, finds himself in the unlucky sixth spot. Steve DG made a bit of a late charge also finishing with no fewer than 5 winners from 6 selections on the final day. Unfortunately it wasn’t quite enough in the end.
Many thanks to Nick Hatton, Letsgetracing and Non Vintage (who drew the short straw when he got Sal’s system to look after – 234 runners – phew) who helped with the admin. Great work guys and yes NV, you can continue to help with Aston and Grasshopper’s selections/results if you wish. That’d be fantastic.
I thought it was a brilliant performance to have had 8 of the 20 systems finishing in profit (and another 2 just narrowly failing to break even) and I think there may be a nugget or two in there. I’m also sure that some of the systems that finished down the table could be fine tuned and made profitable also (although I have my doubts about Barry’s ‘alliteration’ system!).
Anyway – it’s onwards and upwards for the top 5 and it’ll be business as usual for them tomorrow. Remember their results get carried forward to the final two weeks.
A couple of rule clarifications. The contest will finish after racing on Saturday in two weeks time. Also, there is no stipulation on the number of selections any system must throw up in the final phase.
Good Luck to the remaining 5 and thanks to the rest of you for being great sports.
(Edited by cormack15 at 11:11 pm on Feb. 19, 2005)
I think Captain Corelli was a runner and winner for me today at 4/1, but it’s academic now.
Good luck to all remaining competitors, and thanks to everyone who helped make it a nice bit of fun.
The results in general are surprisingly good, but I wouldn’t get too carried away. With current betting margins, a decent proportion of punters/systems/bets should win anyway on a purely random basis.
Monkey – in my paper Captain Corelli hadn’t run for 17 days, which excluded him on soft ground.
Unlucky, by the way, a few more runners and I’m sure you might have made the final!
I agree that randomly, given the shortish test period, some systems will work, but this was essentially a game and not a scientific trial.
(In hindsight, and from a purely selfish perspective, I wish I had pre-tweaked my system so that it produced far fewer selections and given me a chance of making the final on the back of one or two half-decent results. Almost the opposite of your dilemma, but once I realised I was going to end up with around 50 selections, the chances of a big %profit against fifteen or so 10-20 selection systems was minimal.)
Realistically, I would imagine that any ‘system’ (taking any length of time to process/calculate) which returned long-term profits at S.P. of around 15% would be viewed as highly successful, and any system which claimed a long-term profit level in excess of 20% would make me very suspicious indeed.
Although some have derided the idea of a 60 second system, the basic principal that some factors are worth prioritising when analysing a race is essentially a sound one, as is the idea that analysis using a few key factors can be almost as accurate and informative as if a much wider range of factors are examined.
Check out this extract, particularly the section on betting and the accompanying graph
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(Edited by non vintage at 1:44 am on Feb. 20, 2005)
Today’s selections –
Empty Wallet – No selection<br><br>Lookingforawinner – Fontwell 4.00 Big Moment
Letsgetracing – No selection
<br>I’m hoping that NV is going to continue doing Aston and Grasshopper.
<br>Btw NV very interesting link. Haven’t read it in detail yet but looking forward to it. I think there is an edge to be had by examining psychological aspects of gambling although I haven’t figured it ourt yet! One common psychological phenomenon is that people tend to place too much importance on the most recent events (e.g. in horse racing theoretically an undue amount of consideration may be given to the horses most recent performances). However, as I say, I haven’t found a way to have this work for me yet and have came to the conclusion that it is because bookies are not normal people (sorry BD!).
Another interesting phenomenon is that people will always tend to underestimate the length of time involved in a project and, therefore, the cost. Can’t remember the technical term for it but it is evident in most of the millenium building projects (dome, bridge, new spa in Bath), the Scottish Parlaiment (doh) and the Diana memorial. In all these projects some of the nations best project managers, architects and construction experts got things very badly wrong. I have first hand knowledge of this phenomenon as each time I embark on a new quiz/competition on here the admin always takes four times longer to do than I anticipate!!
I stand corrected, NV. My system was that bit too selective.
That is an interesting link you posted. I’ve only skimmed the article for now, but I will read it in detail.
Thanks again to all involved in organising this.
Thanks to everyone for running the competition and good luck to those who are still in it.
That’s a very interesting article NV, I have read similar articles elsewhere about expectation which I think is the same thing ?<br>
(Edited by dave jay at 11:08 am on Feb. 20, 2005)
should racing go ahead today…
Grasshopper <br>*has no selections
Aston<br>2:10 Towcester – Union Deux<br>(with Ice Crystal disqualified as a joint topweight – could you confirm this Aston? cheers!)
Same here, thanks to all involved. I dont have any interest in NH racing as a rule, but I got a lovely little adrenaline rush towards the end of the Wincanton 4:05.<br>Have also browsed the link NV, and will also read it in detail later.
Again, many thanks<br>Chris
Personally, I’m amazed that 40% of the systems made a profit over the 15 days.
I would have guessed half that number.
Beforehand, I reckoned my own system would lose 8-12% and I’d finish 7th or 8th.
I lost only one tenth of that and effectively finished 10th.
I think that shows the level of competition.
Aston, in particular, stands out for his combination of LSP, strike rate and number of selections.
I’m off to find out his rules!
Good luck to the 5 remaining constestants. I hope you all keep turning a profit for the next 2 weeks.
Thanks to Cormack and his assistants (thanks for checking my qualifiers, Nick) for giving us a lot of fun for the last couple of weeks
… and, of course, to the big man, for putting up the prize money
Steve
It’s been a pleasure helping Cormack15 to the halfway point and I’d like to wish the remaining five contenders good luck ! :cool:
It was indeed a pleasure to help you out corm, even if my contributions were sometimes a little late. Who the hell invented university anyway? :biggrin:
Best of luck to the five who remain, of which I am a proud member, thanks to Pipey’s ‘inconsistent,’ outsiders!
A well done as well to corm for overseeing another fantastic competition. Nice, my friend.
in the end, no runners from Grasshopper or Aston today (Sunday 20th), so as you were…
Well done everyone – great fun.
I’m not remotely surprised about profitability (nor about my own system’s lack of one!!).
Could we have a reminder of the rules of the remaining systems please?
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