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As is often the case, I go to the Showcase meeting at Chelt, and get all juiced up again so begins another stint at using my self divised rating system to pick value bets and lays.
N15:35 Weddell Sea seems overpriced given 3 placed finishes at over 2m this season, his last run on soft ground can be forgiven as he has never performed on soft ground.Catalan King as favourite makes little sense, plenty of others with better chances.
Weddell Sea 1pt Win at 15 1pt Place at 4.1
Catalan King 1pt Lay at 4.9 S16:55 Secret Road is only such a price as he is up againt hatrick chasing Scarboroughwarning, who won his last outing with plenty in hand. Southwell can be a different animal though and 2 wins plus 2 places in 5 starts here for Secret Road makes him worth a shot at this price.
Secret Road 1pt Win @9.4 1 1pt top 2 @2.78
+0.1
Chepstow 14:35 I like Leissiers Express and Iberio but the prices are bang on where they should be so no great value there for me. I will however be laying Mumfords Magic who can only be favourite because of the trainer / jockey appeal, his record at 3m+ reads PPP34 (4th place was 23 lengths a drift) there is nothing to suggest he will go the distance, although the course should suit.
1pt Lay at 5.8
Chepstow 15:10 Nocte Volatus held on to win at Uttoxeter back in May, conditions should suit, he runs well fresh, and a 5lb claimer on board who knows their way around Chepstow gives him a fair chance here I think.
1pt Win at 28
1pt Top 3 at 6.2 Catterick 14:12 I would have Desert Dream as favourite for this his record at 7f around here reads 372210112 the last run was in a class 4 race. Swift is back onboard with a better than 50% stroke rate around Catterick and rode Desert Dream to his last 2 wins. The ground will suit with a record on soft ground of 123874112.
2 point win at 11
Was left with far too much to do not getting onto the rail early+33.2 today
+33.3 overall
Bath 15:58 Ectocross is an absolute leap of faith that he can be truned out fit and ready to go but he goes well fresh, something was amiss in when last seen, if now in good health could spring a suprise here. 12 months ago he won a class 2 race in soft conditions over this distance.
0.5pt win at 22
1pt place at 4 15:05 Stratford Its hard to confident about anything in this race I have teh first 2 as RAzzo Italiano and Karannele both at attractive prices, but both dissapointing last time out if it wasn’t for teh jockey booking I would have given Karanelle a second chance, but Callum Pritchard has 1 win to his name in 65 outings in the last 12 months and os 0 – 47 over hurdles. I will however lay the favourite Penna Rosa who does have some previous good form, but all of his best form is going right handed.
1pt Lay at 4.3
-0.5 today
+32.98 overallN17:45 Daniels Flyer is back down from class 2 company, which was well out of his league but back down to class 4, even as top weight, makes plenty of appeal around here in this company an back over 7f. I have him priced at 2.6 so great value bet.
1pt win @ 9
1Pt place @ 2.46-2 / +30.98
Kempton 14:20 I am going to take on the favourite here and side with Aimeric who was 3 lengths behind Military Academy last time out. However on that day Aimeric was giving 7lb to MA thts cut to 5 today, added to the greater experince of Aimeric on the AW makes 5.3 a very attractive price.
Aimeric 1pt win @5.3
Military Academy 1pt Lay @1.92 Aimeric took the long way around and was punished for it.
-1.92
+29.06 overall
15:20 Sedgfield The most consistent form over fences goes to Dr Shirocco, goes well fresh, and down in class from his last couple of runs. Best form is on good ground, in with a good chance here.
1pt Win @ 12
1pt Place @ 2.514:00 Redcar All of Lightening Company’s best form has come on softground, so could be in with a good shout of running into a place here.
1pt Win @ 13.5
2pt Place @ 3.16
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