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Along with the Queen Alexandra, this is probably my favourite race of the meeting. I can’t understand the calls to scrap these great races.
Thomas Hobson is in as a very skinny 7/2 fav – a ridiculous price considering he prefers a softer surface and can be wildly inconsistent. He’s also not the strongest stayer of 2m 4f. I don’t see how you could possibly back him at this price. On the plus side, this could be one of those golden moments where a Moore/Mullins favourite makes the market for something else.
Who Dares Wins is next in. He has obvious claims after running-on to be close up in the Chester Cup. I got a piece of the 20/1 on offer at 365 last week but he is totally bottled up now.
Beyond Conceit is looking like the main bet. His form over jumps this season was incredible for a horse who missed something like three years of his career. The Ascot win over Topofthegame was unbelievable – he pulled his head off for the best part of two miles but still managed to see off a tidy bunch of novices. They didn’t go fast enough for him in the Supreme but the Aintree run was another corker. The World’s End is my idea of next year’s Stayers’ Hurdle champion.
The ground is against Magic Circle, Oceane has had enough chances in this type of race and good old Rainbow Dreamer is some way inferior to Beyond Conceit over jumps.
The only other ones I’d like to add to my portfolio on the day will be:
Endless Acres – totally unexposed over a marathon distance and ran a blinder behind handicap blot Flymetothestars at Newcastle last time. Hoping to get 20+ on the machine and chip away at the 3, 4 and 5 places derivatives.
Shrewd – shapes like he wants this sort of test and still on a fair enough mark on last year’s form. Hoping to get 40+ on the machine and chip away at the 3, 4 and 5 places derivatives.-
Bets
Who Dares Wins 20/1 2pts e/w
Beyond Conceit 8/1 2pt winTo follow…
Shrewd 1pt 40.0+ win-only and more (tbc) 3, 4 & 5 places.
Endless Acres 1pt 20.0 win-only and more (tbc) 3, 4 & 5 placesThe ground was quick enough in the Chester Cup. Can see Magic Circle reversing places with Who Dares Wins. De Sousa on board a big plus.
You’d certainly know about fast ground loving staying performers with a username like that, Westender69. Best of luck with Magic Circle. Personally looking forward to him tackling the Ces at the end of the season.
I think Thomas Hobson is priced up solely due to owner, trainer and jockey. He’s not visibly well handicapped and I’d be worried about the lively conditions for him.
Like a couple of you chaps I’m in on Beyond Conceit at 8/1 and hope he can pay me back for not winning at Aintree. He finished 4th at Glorious Goodwood of his current mark of 92 a few years ago and his recent hurdles form suggests this is an ideal test for him. Oceane also seems some value at 12/1. He ran a cracker at the course on his latest start. I think the added half mile will bring about the improvement needed and he has course form. One at larger odds I think people shouldn’t discount is Suegioo (25/1). Although winless since the 2014 Chester Cup he’s finally fallen down to a mark of 100 which seems fair(ish). He finished 2nd in a Northumberland Plate off 99 and 3 lengths 4th (off this mark) at Haydock trying to give Seamour a stone. He needs a quick surface and this extreme trip to be seen to best effect so I can see a decent effort on the cards.
I have to agree with LostSoldier regarding WHO DARES WINS. I have backed this at 14/1 and 12/1 and IMO this will not finish out of the frame. The Chester Cup run when not getting the clearest of runs was very promising to say the least!!
I think the main danger is his stable mate Oceane who was unlucky at Goodwood and impressive at York last year!!
Thomas Hobson could want soft ground and is priced more for the jockey and trainer combination than his actual form.
And if you are looking for an outsider to bet in this you could do worse than back Star Rider at 33/1 who actually won the race Oceane was unlucky in at Goodwood last year and the other half has backed it!!
Good Luck Guys
Quite a few might not like the going so have gone for Alan King’s two:-
RAINBOW DREAMER and
OCEANE.
Good luck eveyone almost thereThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’m with you Jac on Rainbow Dreamer. He will love the ground and didn’t look like
he was running out of steam when winning last time out at Newbury over 2m2f. 16/1
looks a very decent bet to meWow, Thomas Hobson wins despite the ground. RUK and ITV are claiming ‘brilliant ride’ but I’m not sure. Plenty of those who raced prominently were still there at the finish.
I think this just suggests Thomas Hobson is a very good horse on the flat. Didn’t get his ground, gave first run to some well-placed and well-handicapped gallopers like Who Dares Wins and Endless Acres yet still absolutely crushed them.
25/1 for the Melbourne Cup more than fair I’d say.
Impressive from the winner and kicking myself really because I thought it was down to Who dares Wins and whatever Mullins ran Grrrrrrrrrrr!!
Never mind was on WDW large each way at 12/1 and 14/1 so got some winnings!!
I think people shouldn’t discount is Suegioo (25/1).
5th. Flaming 5th. I keep getting it wrong when deciding whether to take a shorter price for an extra place (PaddyPower were going 5 places but only 20/1 when I was placing my bets) or take the larger price with normal each-way terms in these big handicaps.
I can’t be the only one who encounters this dilemma?
I know what you mean Charles – it hurts so bad. I’ve recently started playing the 4, 5 and 6 places markets on Betfair. You can play them all to cover your options and often get better terms than you would get backing each-way if you crunch the numbers.
I’ve found it often saves you from the heartache of missing out by a place and reduces your variance in the long-term, cutting down your losing runs and helping the sanity a little bit. Liquidity tends to be poor in the morning but really builds up in the hours before the race.
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