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It matters, Tommy, because we want to know exactly how well each horse ran so that we may assess how well it’s likely to run when studying its next race. Did Cue Card match his career best rating (182) or run to 170? I reckon 178 and Colin Tizzard, who knows the horse best, agrees with me!
“You’ve got to say he ran right to some of his best marks at Ascot. If you take out Waiting Patiently, he beat Frodon, who won a handicap by 12 lengths before, out of sight and Top Notch. It was a good race.”
The time of the race was a tenth of a second quicker than when Cue Card won it last time…
He beat the 156 rated Shantou Flyer 15 lengths…
Is Shantou Flyer a better horse than Frodon and Top Notch? I don’t think he is so to me those two slightly underperformed while Cue Card probably ran to a similar mark as 2017…low 170’s at best..
Good thinking Zammer.
Although do think it’s more than “slightly”.
Value Is EverythingI hope you do come back to my previous reply, Ginger, because it is essential to my perspective. I can also see where you’re coming from re Top Notch’s progression. He took a long time to equal and better his 160 hurdles mark but when he did so it happened in G1’s. 165, however, is still 5 below what some 160 hurdlers achieve on chase debut. TN is not necessarily the type to improve for fences but to his credit worked at it until he did. It doesn’t mean he will be able reproduce the G2 171 in a G1 though – that’s the doubt some of us have. And here’s another angle: D Jacob, D Jacob, D Jacob…then the 171 comes under the best jockey currently riding, Nico De Boinville.
That’s a ridiculous argument, Zamorston! The going wasn’t exactly the same, Cue Card received a Topspeed Rating of 147 for last year’s renewal, 154 for this. 7 better, I am saying he ran 8 better. He could’ve done last year if pressed. He beat Shantou Flyer 15L easily, Frodon beat SF 16 just as easily (and SF is now with someone who can actually train a horse), on Saturday CC beat Frodon 15. Yes, Frodon (best 173) and Top Notch (best 171) “slightly underperformed”, that’s what I’m saying, slightly can’t be more than half a stone, CC was 15 better and that’s about 178.
If at some point in the future you start a thread on how much horses improve from hurdles to fences (or suchlike) I may well comment, GM.
Fair point on Jacob/Nico, but still think natural progression is the most likely.
Value Is EverythingColin Tizzard knows the horse but what does he know about handicapping?
You would have as much chance of getting an honest and unbiased opinion from him as you would of getting a council flat in Belgravia.
By the way, I didn’t fall out with Joe. I just made it clear that there was no further dissussion forthcoming.
If you are at a party and start talking to someone about horse ratings and the other person states that they don’t give a monkey’s toss about horse ratings, the polite thing to do is stop talking about it. Ramming on and on about it instead isn’t really conducive to good etiquette.
I think some people are of the opinion that I am trying to play Waiting Patiently down here. If you care to check the thread again, you will see that I put the horse up first, at 7/2, on the thread, stating that he looked the “Fastest improver” in the race. I am on him at 8/1 for the Ryanair but he probably won’t go there. If he does end up as a 180+ chaser in time, then that would not surprise me. He’s not there yet though with the certainty a better body of evidence would bring to the table and I find it odd that horses get fired right up there next to the greats so early in their careers.
Rating Waiting Patiently 181 now, means that he is only 1 lb behind Moscow Flyer’s all time best of 182 on the RPR scale. It took Moscow Flyer until he was 11 years old and his 39th race in a 44 race career, to record his peak figure. Waiting Patiently is 4 years younger in earning the alleged 181 rating, in only his 9th race.
Putting Waiting Patiently so high, so soon puts him into Kauto Star territory already and is he really that good yet? Before the race there seemed far more fans of Top Notch and a skepticism of Waiting Patiently’s potential. It seems to be odd to switch 180 degrees on the strength of one race.
Good judge Joe, also went with Waiting Patiently and like myself felt the horse had the potential to win a Ryanair. Perhaps if he does go there and wins it well we could be looking at it with more evidence to support the higher figures but for now it’s just not there yet.
Enough said, time will tell us more.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just quickly on how much horses improve from hurdles to fences, I picked the 3.30 at Ludlow at random (would have to do this for hundreds of horses for it to be representative). Based on best RPRs:
Federici 128H 137C +9
PopelysG 115H 133C +18
CaptainB 122H 131C +9
Kap Jazz 114H 127C +13
HoratioH 132H 132C 0
Goohar.. 121H 124C +3
Uhlan Bu 127H 130C +3Average improvement +7.86
I have to admit GM there hasn’t been much i’ve agreed with you on in this thread but Nico is one.
Just a note on your “Tizzard knows best” views….he knew Thistlecrack was right back up to his best in time for the King George this year didn’t he? Well, he was wrong. Trainers say things a bit like football managers, to suit their agendas.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!That’s a ridiculous argument, Zamorston! The going wasn’t exactly the same, Cue Card received a Topspeed Rating of 147 for last year’s renewal, 154 for this. 7 better, I am saying he ran 8 better. He could’ve done last year if pressed. He beat Shantou Flyer 15L easily, Frodon beat SF 16 just as easily (and SF is now with someone who can actually train a horse), on Saturday CC beat Frodon 15. Yes, Frodon (best 173) and Top Notch (best 171) “slightly underperformed”, that’s what I’m saying, slightly can’t be more than half a stone, CC was 15 better and that’s about 178.
It’s your rating of Cue Card that looks “ridiculous”, GM.
Two goings were officially “soft”, although 2017 was good-soft places; so it’s not that different.
Last year’s race wasn’t quite as strongly run, but it wasn’t far off. With confirmed front-runner Royal Regatta taking on Cue Card.
This year’s renewal just 0.8 quicker… and as you say he won last year with a bit in hand, so could’ve run a slightly faster time.
… And it was Waiting Patiently that stopped the clock in 2018, therefore Cue Card’s time is a little more than the winner’s this time around.
And as Zammer rightly points out, both Frodon and Shantou Flyer were beaten the same 15 lengths, with Top Notch a further 2 1/2 lengths behind. imo both Frodon and Top Notch are significantly better than Shantou Flyer and therefore probably quite a bit below their bests.
RPR’s have 2017 rated 3 lbs ahead, with 173 in 2017 compared with 170 in 2018.
Although I think the 2017 rating is too high, am struggling to see how Cue Card’s 2018 performance can be rated any more than 171 on a Timeform scale and that’s stretching things… (which puts Waiting Patiently on no more than 174p). That still puts Saturday’s performance by the 12 year old Cue Card as his best since the 10 year old ran away with the 2016 Betfair. At his best CC was 180.Value Is EverythingAgree with what Jack says there…
May disagree with the merit of the performances ratings wise but 100% agree regarding Top Notch and Jacob/Nico…
NDB in another league to Jacob for me…
That’s me, you, Ginger and Joe who all rate Nico then, Jack!
Yeah, but…Tizzard said Cue Card was back near his best before Ascot and he was right.
Who knows best is quite an issue. You have the people who actually work with and know the horses, you have the professional media, pundits, analysers and ratings compilers, then there is us on this forum – largely amateur dedicated fans with a sprinkling of those who do or did work in the game including current pro investors. I think many of us on TRF are as talented and knowledgeable as the second group but both groups can be overly critical and disrespectful (and I include myself) of those at the coal face. It happens re all sports. Which of us is going to tell a trainer face to face that he/she often talks a load of bull? Trainers and jockeys have true inside knowledge so it’s perfectly reasonable to use their comments to illustrate a point.
This is just going round in circles, Ginger. What you have just said doesn’t explain the Topspeed Ratings and they reflect not a direct comparison between each year’s time (because G to S places or not IS actually a significant factor, even different shades of Soft is) but how relatively outstanding 2018’s renewal was compared to other races on the card, much more so than the 2017 renewal stood out from other races on that card. A slow, falsely run race equals unreliable form, the faster the race is run, therefore, means the form is more reliable. The pace was fast and did not collapse.
All I did on this thread was to express my surprise at the RPRs, the handicapper and other ratings services have fallen in line (a cartel?), more people agree with them on here than agree with me but people tend to be conservative, seek safety in numbers and respect authority (unless that authority is the trainers of the actual horses involved!). I had/have no agenda. If people read all my posts on this thread I have examined the race from every conceivable angle: time, pace, collateral form, what those in the game have said about it and the horses/jockeys, etc, etc. and RPR-based, the only way I can reflect all those aspects as accurately as possible is 181/178/163/161.
It was not that difficult to do considering I have rated the finishers (where we know the distances) for every Grand National, added in the best staying chasers not to have run in a GN and made everything fit. If folk prefer to believe the figures for the Ascot Chase should be up to 10 lower than mine and take those lower numbers forward to their assessment of how the horses might run next time, good luck to you.
Yeah, but…Tizzard said Cue Card was back near his best before Ascot and he was right.
Is this Fantasy Island or what?
Do people ever remember what people said before previous races?
If not, then take a look at what Colin Tizzard said before the Betfair debacle behind Bristol De Mai back in November, source, Racing Post website 25th November 2017:-
Tizzard added: “We thought we had him ready at Wetherby and unfortunately he fell. He was in a good position, going easy enough and I think he’s every bit as good as he’s ever been and he does like heavy ground, so everything is in favour.
“It was heavy at Haydock last year and he floated on it, loved it, so it’s fine. His ratings are in front of Bristol De Mai, who is a beautiful horse, but if Cue Card was an eight-year-old he’d be odds-on favourite.
“His form last season was better than any of these and I’ve no reason to think he’s any different. He went to Wincanton for a showboat after Wetherby and is in good form.”
After the race Tizzard reported that Cue Card was “In A1 condition”
With no reason for being so wildly wrong it is clear Colin Tizzard gave punters a bum steer with all the rubbish that was said before the race.
The man is clearly not to be trusted implicitly.
I’ve heard some claims in my time but making the figures fit for every Grand National has to be one of the most ludicrous I have ever heard in my life.
I can only assume you are a billionaire through punting. Best of luck. I’ll stick to real life thanks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I love listening to Colin Tizzard, how evrything is rose coloured in his stable is quite funny. Don’t think he deliberately puts punters away, just his natural state of mind being optimistic before any race. Punters only need to take any positive comments with a pinch of salt.
Value Is EverythingWhat has what he said regarding Haydock got to do with the fact that what he said before Ascot proved correct? Only an idiot would not see that many horses have completely blown out on Haydock Heavy this season. This is what I was talking about in my previous post – Colin Tizzard’s integrity has been called into question. Why on earth would he say something he did not believe in order to deceive punters, deliberately or otherwise?
Some participants on TRF are disrespectful to all and sundry. Steve, you are capable of making a logical and well evidenced case. However, should someone else do likewise you are not content to agree to differ and rather prone to revert to language designed to insult during discussion. Furthermore, you are prepared to extend the use of that type of vocabulary when commenting upon things of which you are in complete ignorance.
but how relatively outstanding 2018’s renewal was compared to other races on the card, much more so than the 2017 renewal stood out from other races on that card. A slow, falsely run race equals unreliable form, the faster the race is run, therefore, means the form is more reliable. The pace was fast and did not collapse.
Undoubtedly a top class time GM; but it was from top class horses in a competitive Grade 1. Difference between the Ascot Chase and others on the card need to be put in to perspective. How many of the other races were even truly run, let alone strongly? Black Corton is a good horse but he’s only a novice and went a slow pace anyway. Other than that vastly inferior grade races/horses and not exactly strong races for the grades either… All exaggerate the time difference.
You could be right that ratings have underestimated Waiting Patiently, but not imo by that far. Cue Card winning well at Cheltenham could prove you right. Not that WP easily winning the Ryanair would prove anything – likely to improve on Ascot anyway.
Value Is EverythingThere’s only one way that this will be sort of settled. When WP has run again, maybe twice… And is rated 180+ (which he will be). His first try in a G1, he was always going to doing just enough to win. Now he’s a proven G1 animal, in his softly, softly connections eyes… I’d bet the shackles will come off next time, that we’ll see an even bigger performance from him, that leaves no doubts ratings wise. Cue Card had his optimum IMO on Sat. 2m5f on soft ground. He’s never been an out and out stayer IMO, and ran very close to his best.
Waiting Patiently V Might Bite… 2018 King George. Now that is a race to look forwards too.
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