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That would be a fair point if running anywhere near his Grade 2 form, Charles. However, it might have been a “Grade 1”, but the form shown Saturday was a long way below that shown in those two previous Grade 2 victories this season. ie I’d still expect a performance something like his “form”, whatever the “Grade”.
Value Is EverythingMy point was/is that there is no evidence to suggest Waiting Patiently needs gutters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You quoted a good ground performance, Steve; the post inferred he should act on good ground.
I am just pointing out to anyone thinking of backing Waiting Patiently ante-post for any race… That the horse may well act on good given the opportunity… But having previously been injured on the surface is unlikely to be given that opportunity/risked on “good”.
Value Is EverythingThe explanation, Ginger, is that Top Notch was out of his comfort zone and couldn’t even reproduce his Grade 2 form in this Grade 1 because this Grade 1 was run at an exceptionally fast pace even for a Grade 1 (+0.85s per f slower than standard on Good compared to +1.34s per f for the next fastest race on the card). It may well turn out to be relatively faster than any race run at the Festival. Charles is right, when involved in previous (Grade 1) races run faster than the norm Top Notch’s form has been below par. Saturday found him out more than any previously.
I think I am in a better position to know what I meant than anyone else is. Sweet Jesus, a mind reader now as well. Give it a rest.
On Waiting Patiently’s rating, Timeform raised him FOUR pounds. Of course, what do they know anout anything?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That’s what Steve would describe as “bobbins”, GM.
On Timeform ratings Top Notch’s best performance as a novice was put up in the Grade 1 JLT.
On Timeform ratings Top Notch’s three best hurdles performances came in three Grade 1’s.
…Not “below par” at all.Grade 2 races are not necessarily run faster.
Saturday’s race was run slower than the race two starts back at the same course.
Saturday: 15.44 secs per furlong.
25th Nov: 15.04 secs per ferlong.A race that Top Notch “tanked along” in and won easily… was run at a faster pace than Saturday’s. Therefore, it can not be that he was found out by the pace.
Even allowing for it being a Grade 1, Top Notch should’ve travelled a lot better than he did Saturday.
Value Is Everything“The explanation, Ginger, is that Top Notch was out of his comfort zone and couldn’t even reproduce his Grade 2 form in this Grade 1 because this Grade 1 was run at an exceptionally fast pace even for a Grade 1”
This
This is almost always the case (in one form or another) why certain horses run below the expectations of many. They cannot cope with the conditions under which the race is run. On another day when such conditions do not apply, they are then considered by the ‘pros’ to have returned to form. It is the unquestioning acceptance of common terminology that’s at fault: ‘Didn’t run his race’ ‘Wasn’t at his best’ And these terms are used to cover the analyst’s faults rather than the horse’s.
Those terms should be binned and replaced with ‘could not cope’.
As a chaser, Ginger, TN is a young, improving horse supposedly (though not nec the typical ‘make a better chaser’ type). 160 best RPR over hurdles, should do 10 better over fences, 171 & 168 in G2’s, 165 and worse in G1’s. Hasn’t proved can cut it to level expected (& achieved in G2’s) in G1 chases – surely that was Charles’s point?
I’m not one for times and, yes, G2’s can be faster than G1’s. But it’s the faster pace of some G1’s, espec Sat’s that catches him out. How to interpret and compare time data on different going, how’s this?
25/11: TN race fastest @ +0.36spf; other races range +0.48 to +0.99
Sat: TN race fastest @ +0.85spf; other races range +1.34 to +1.90Sat’s race was way more faster than fastest and slowest other races on card and than the mean of other races on card than was TN’s race in Nov compared to other races on that card. The same conclusion using Topspeed ratings.
Am no “mind reader”
. Doesn’t matter if what you described as “the main thing for me is” was “meant” or not. What’s written inferred Waiting Patiently acts on GOOD, Steve; whether meant or not. No biggie, just thought it worth pointing out before anyone backs Waiting Patiently that – whether he acts on GOOD or not – fact remains he’s had an injury apparently picked up after running on GOOD… Therefore is unlikely to be risked on it.Why shouldn’t I point that out?
Value Is EverythingNo biggie, just thought it worth pointing out before anyone backs Waiting Patiently.
No biggie? You’re obsessed with trying to prove you are right.
Nobody is hanging on my every word here and it may surprise you to know that probably very few are hanging on yours either.
Other posters here have sussed out your verbatim spiels and the obssesion with the last word on EVERYTHING.
I’ll make a deal with you. I will ignore all your input. So don’t expect any replies.
I will now leave you to have the last word as always. Bye now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What I am getting at GM, is that Top Notch is the sort of horse that normally travels well through the early and mid stages of races – whatever race he’s involved in. Even when the going is good (when conditions mean the pace is normally faster) Top Notch usually travels well. That’s him; he does not normally go through his races like he did on Saturday. Yes, this race was run at a fast pace compared to others on the same soft ground card, but not compared to races earlier in Top Notch’s season/career. Normally shows far more speed early. Therefore, the fact Top Notch was never travelling with his usual elan on Saturday can not mean he failed due to not having the pace – we know he does… And we also know from previous efforts Top Notch is (or is near nigh) as effective on soft as he is good. Therefore, we know the way he travelled can not have anything to do with the going either. So there must be a different reason or just a bad day at the office.
Value Is EverythingMe, “being obsessed with trying to prove I am right”; right about what?
No deal, lol.
You implied Waiting Patiently acts on good ground so should run on good ground.
Why should that stop me from pointing out the horse was injured running on Good ground and therefore is unlikely to run on it again?
Surely you’re in favour of TRFers having all the relevent information necessary in order to make a decision on whether a horse is a good bet or not?
I have every right to comment. This is a discussion forum, after all. Am not going to be silent about a horse or race or anything else racing related just because you commented on it first.On the previous page of this thread you managed to fall out with Joe over nothing. Am concerned you’re currently seeing things in people’s posts that simply aren’t there, Steve.
Value Is EverythingI see Waiting Patiently has been given 170 by the Official Handicapper. I did say you could not rate him 8lbs higher than Sizing John and Might Bite.
It seems the Handicapper and Timeform are content to call him Jefferson Airplane for now. Jefferson Starship will have to wait for a while yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah, but OR’s tend to be half a stone below RPRs, probably because the latter rate single performances while the handicapper’s is more a master rating. Timeform is similar to the handicapper and have awarded WP 171p (the p is for prevaricate!)
We’ve had the RPR/OR thing before. I am talking about RPR’s only here. Might Bite and Sizing John have RPR’s of 173, that is why I said you cannot give Waiting Patiently 181 for his win.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He then buckled when the pressure was on in last year’s JLT before the same fate at Aintree and now a tame effort once the chips were down in the Ascot Chase.
Surely, he’s evolving into a horse to avoid at the top level?
He’s made a mistake 2 or 3 out in the JLT, and ran on gamely to finish a length second? Only G1 winners in behind him too in Disko and Politologue? Really?
The horse has ran badly once in G1s….He’s finished 5th in a champion hurdle the year after his juvenile career. Are people writing off 5yos now in Championship races
He clearly been miles below his best at the weekend…He’s not going to be a champion, but hes a very good horse that is of the standard to run in G1s.
I’ve read on here people saying he’s of the same level as Frodon
Harry Derham has even questioned the level of his Chelttenham romp…He finished 10.25 lengths behind top notch earlier in the season…..Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sometimes, just sometimes… Like a bunch of old women is the term that springs to mind.
The only travesty here… Was that I managed to win NO money on the race. School boy error.
As I said before the race. He’s the real deal. No Cheltenham for him is my guess this year, it was never going to be part of the bosses plan. He will step up to three miles, win the KG in a canter. All roads will lead to GC 2019 IMO.
Think Best Mate… That kinda thing. My guess is, we will see him sparingly.
Best chaser in GB or IRE. And he’ll prove it, whatever OR or RPR or TF say right now.
I’m still gutted I won no money on the damn race!!
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