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I am very sweet on Ghizao. Loves the track and jumps well.
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4/1 Ghizao. Would he be much shorter with Ruby in the saddle? Not sure I like the price as the ground gets firmer.
Not sure that Mr Mullins has a very good record in the Arkle [well, his horses, not him!]..having said that I might risk an ew on that mare of his if she runs. This really is a disappointing race; used to be one of the best of the week imo. Ghizao doesn’t have a very high hurdles rating; not keen on Finians Rainbow; Capt Chris might need further [along with most of the other horses has an entry in a 20f race later in the week].Only Ghizao, Medermit and Finians Rainbow have got just an Arkle entry. Bad race for favourites [Medermit?]. Think I’ll risk Captain Chris and the mare. No value anywhere else. As I haven’t had time to look at any of the races properly this year, I thought I’d just back all of the Kings Theatre horses..Capt Chris being the first.
I said immediately after the Silly Isles, Medermit was outstanding value at 10/1 and should be favourite. However, he’s a rediculous price now, should be around 4/1.
Also said Finians Rainbow would be my second choice, but he disappointed (in his jumping) at Warwick. Tom Symonds (assistant trainer) was at Newbury Cheltenham Preview and blamed the different tactics. It appears Finians Rainbow will be back to front running (or being prominent). Think you could ignore the last run if he’s able to do so. However, with Dan Breen, Stagecoach Pearl, West With The Wind and possibly Williams Wishes; liking to run prominently. Dan Breen and Stagecoach Pearl possibly need to lead. – Must be a big negative for Finians Rainbow, which makes him poor value (imo) at 4’s. Ghizao might be better on a softer surface.So looking elsewhere for my follow up bets for the Arkle. Can’t see Realt Dubh making the required improvement to win an average Arkle. Admirable horse though he is. Same for Rock Noir. Similar comments for all the front runners as Finians.
Mikael won’t run and jumps right anyway (like Captain Chris). To compliment my 10/1 Medermit, I’ve had each way bets on a couple who are not certain starters, but if running will be a lot shorter (imo). Giorgio Quercus is proven on a sound surface and showed improved form last time when getting the race in the stewards room from Dan Breen. Dan has the Cheltenham form, but I’d have Giorgio as a better chance than his old rival. Only the price he is (33/1 nrnb) because of being a second string.
The other is Blazing Tempo of Mullins. She gets 7lbs sex allowance and has been under-rated by many because of her more illustrious stable companion. Second last time out to For Bill, appeared to weaken over a strongly run 2 1/2 miles. That’s good form on it’s own and may improve back at 2 miles. Had (at that time and for previous trainer) good hurdle form on good ground. Is not always a perfect jumper, but 33/1 nrnb is massive. If running I expect her to start near to single figures!Value Is EverythingTimmy Murphy booked for Ghizao [does he usually ride him?]. Surely that means Ruby will ride Mikael or the mare….will definately back her ew if she runs.
Arkle Chase
This has a tendency to go to the top rated hurdler and with Medermit looking at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles and showing a marked liking for the course he’s certainly a worthy favourite here and it would prob just be nitpicking to look for excuses to see him beaten. Of the dangers Fintans Rainbow and Ghizao have looked impressive on occasion over fences but to envisage them beating Medermit, you would have to assume either A) Either or both have improved some 20 lbs plus for the transition to fences or B) Medermit will fail to run a mark anywhere near 150+ on the day. Similar remarks apply to most of the field. The one fly in the ointment for me is if the ground came up really soft, Realt Dubh has to be worth a saver as he’s game,jumps accurately and always gives his running although he’ll probably get done a bit for toe on livelier ground.
Selection: Medermit @ 11/4
I know it means little, but I dreamt last night that Finians Rainbow won, and won well, Medermit in second.
I know it means little, but I dreamt last night that Finians Rainbow won, and won well, Medermit in second.
I have been dreaming that for about 3 months JJM….in my waking hours only though. Hope you are spot on, good luck next week.
I’m having £10 E/W on Finigans Rainbow – he can make mistakes, but let’s hope he jumps and sets a punishing pace the rest cannot contend with. Medermit for the F/C.
Am already on Medermit at 10/1, but he is no longer value (imo)
My 100% book
Medermit 7/2, Finians Rainbow 5/1, Ghizao 5/1,Dan Breen 10/1
,
Giorgio Quercus 11/1
, Captain Chris 12/1, Realt Dubh 12/1, Rock Noir 20/1,
Stagecoach Pearl 33/1
, West With The Wind 50/1.
Dan Breen available at 16/1, Giorgio Quercus 33/1 and Stagecoach Pearl 66/1.
Value Is EverythingToday’s races may turn some recent form upsidedown.
It’s bound to be fast drying and there will be horses there today who will feel 100% better in themselves to feel the sun on their backs. This will catch out even the most experienced horse racing enthusiasts.
2 against the favoured ones in the Arkle for me are Dan Breen and West With The Wind. Both love the drying conditions and WWTW has won on good in the Summer.
E/W bets, of course.I jumped on the
Medermit
bandwagon after his Sandown success – a lot to like about that performance. I’ve already stated my case in this thread – no need to repeat myself.
I have a feeling that
Captain Chris
, although clearly held on the formbook, could suprise a few. He had a nice confidence booster at Kempton recently and I find it interesting that connections are tackling this tougher assignment.
I don’t think they have simply seperated Captain Chris and Wishful Thinking for the sake of it. Philip Hobbs has always thought the world of this horse and had every intention of running both Mrs Diana Whateley horses in the Jewson.
He has always been prone to hitting the odd fence, but along with Finian’s Rainbow, is perhaps the most talented horse in the field. Although, like the Nicky Henderson-trained horse, may come into his own over further.
It’s great to see such a nice collection of potentially high class horses, and I fancy quite a few of them will take the step up to senior level in their stride next season.
Urgh still cant find a real standout, I want to be on Finians but he was so disappointing last year at Cheltenham doesn’t make me want to back him, since he is close on ratings I will punt on the fast ground loving West With The Wind.
I have a feeling that
Captain Chris
, although clearly held on the formbook, could suprise a few. He had a nice confidence booster at Kempton recently and I find it interesting that connections are tackling this tougher assignment.
I don’t think they have simply seperated Captain Chris and Wishful Thinking for the sake of it. Philip Hobbs has always thought the world of this horse and had every intention of running both Mrs Diana Whateley horses in the Jewson.
He has always been prone to hitting the odd fence, but along with Finian’s Rainbow, is perhaps the most talented horse in the field. Although, like the Nicky Henderson-trained horse, may come into his own over further.
It’s great to see such a nice collection of potentially high class horses, and I fancy quite a few of them will take the step up to senior level in their stride next season.
Get in!!
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