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RAINBOW BACKERS WILL BE DANCING WITH JOY ON ARKLE DAY
Nicky Henderson will be out to win his 4th Arkle Chase in the shape of Finians Rainbow after previously winning it with Remittance Man (1991), Travado (1993) and Tiutchev (2000) making him the most successful trainer of the race in this year’s field as his rivals will pitch together on Tuesday 15th March to stop the market leader from being crowned Champion.
There has been a lot of questioning about who Finians Rainbow has been actually beating this year facing only 10 rivals in his 3 starts which could relate to his price still being 9/2 and have the public really caught on to the Rainbow, do they believe he can deliver the goods come Cheltenham?.
Let’s get to the business end of this article by looking at his latest run at Warwick which on evidence I think highlights his best chance at Cheltenham, now I’ll be comparing Finians Rainbows sectionals with those of 4 well regarded runners to have recorded good times over the 2 miles at Warwick in the last 5 years (Video restrictions prior to 2005) and they are; Kruguyrova, Araldur, Long Run and Afsoun.
First of all it’s good to look at what we’re working in a little bit more depth which means reviewing other bits of information to fit the puzzle such as Ground Conditions, Speed Ratings, Par Performance, Track Performance and Official Ratings.
Ground Conditions
2011 Finians Rainbow – (0.03/Good)
2009 Long Run – (-6.63/Heavy)
2008 Araldur – (-0.04/Good)
2008 Kruguyrova – (-1.38/Good to Soft)
2008 Afsoun – (0.31/Good)Having looked at the ground conditions they are all very solid being around the good, good to soft mark which is what Cheltenham will be aiming to produce with the only exception being Long Run who ran in heavy ground by since we’ll be dealing in percentages of final times later on there shouldn’t be any discrepancies.
Speed Ratings
102 Long Run (won by 12 lengths)
93 Kruguyrova (won by a neck)
88 Araldur (won by 17 lengths)
87 Finians Rainbow (won by 11 lengths)
75 Afsoun (won by a head)There is one stand out performance of both speed and stamina here and that’s the recent King George winner Long Run who at a figure of 102 for a Novice on his second run showed signs of excellent potential. This means that by drawing clear of your opponents is a horse showing acceleration then recording a big speed figure is proving your ability to sustain it which indicates a class horse and one who can get further in time.
Par Performance
11lbs above – Araldur
6lbs above – Afsoun
3lbs above – Long Run
12lbs below – Finians Rainbow (He won by 11 lengths, we can equate this to 1lb below)
5lbs below – KruguyrovaThe stand out performance was Araldur who proved he was clearly a lot better than an £8k Novice Chase around Warwick accompanied by a 17 length demolition of Chapoturgeon in the process and secured a Grade 2 at Sandown next time out, his performance was probably indicative of how well primed the horse was having been on the go in France since June time. What’s disappointing is Finians Rainbows effort here, there is no real explanation as to why this may of occurred but I’m going to put it down to Warwick hosting a Grade 2 on a pretty poor card and have adjusted the missing 12lbs as mentioned but you can’t forget how heavily eased he was towards the finish.
Track Performance
21 Lengths quicker – Long Run
12 Lengths quicker – Kruguyrova
11 Lengths quicker – Araldur
8 Lengths quicker – Finians Rainbow
1 Length quicker – AfsounAgain we have to look at Long Run whose run 21 lengths quicker than the race average on that day and it’s no surprise after seeing his speed figure, winners that day featured; Dance Island, Piraya and Pevril. The mare Kruguyrova ran a decent effort of 12 lengths with winners that day such as Beat The Boys and Superior Wisdom whilst Finians Rainbow still managed to run 8 lengths quicker after being heavily eased by Andrew Tinkler.
Adjusted Official Ratings
183 – Long Run
162 – Finians Rainbow
148 – Kruguyrova
146 – Afsoun
143 – AraldurThis is how their Warwick performances have been worked out on Official Ratings without using hindsight to adjust them and are strictly based on what they shown on the day, put together by the Par and Track performance. What we’ve seen from Long Run in this article already is impressive but I’d of been doubting this rating a little bit at the time of his victory after a Grade 2 Novice at Warwick but we now know he’s rated 179 after his King George run. Then we have Finians Rainbow who’s run to around 162, the form book says he’s beaten a 147 rated horse by 11 lengths receiving 3lbs but we know he was heavily eased so I think 162 is pretty fair. The Last 10 years has seen the Arkle winner recording victory of an average of around 153 which would have and did rule out Kruguyrova, Afsoun and Araldur for any victory in the Arkle meaning Finians Rainbow has a great chance of landing success as he clearly is the best horse in the race with a lot more extending to do.
I think to sum up the basis of what we’re achieving our standards around is pretty solid bar the possibility of Afsoun’s participation in the process although he’s the best out of a average bunch in the last 5 years.
The report has been a little bit overshadowed by Long Runs success although it’s important to highlight this for later on, we all know what Nicky Henderson has achieved with this horse now and it’s frightening how close he’s got to the Official Rating of 183 suggested which can only enhance the solidness of these standards.The Kruguyrova victory in 2008 featured a horse you may have heard of going by the name of Big Bucks who has proved to be a true champion, whilst the winner ran a brave effort in the Arkle coming second to Tidal Bay as shown in the Investigation she had the profile of a horse who’d probably need a little bit further whilst not having the class to win an Arkle and stayed on well behind Tidal Bay after showing bright pace.
The Novice Chase winner Araldur was 14-1 after his success in 2008 with trainer Alan King suggesting he didn’t have the speed to 2 miles around Cheltenham hinting that he was flattered during his win although he did go on to secure a Grade 2 at Sandown before being unplaced and beaten 22 lengths in a Grade 1 at Sandown over 2 miles 5 furlongs, Chapoturgeon the runner up proved useful winning twice at Cheltenham next time out. I think Alan King was wrong here suggesting the horse needs further as his profile earlier in this report suggests he more lethal over 2 miles with that turn of foot and would make note of this horse going back over fences in the near future.
Start – 2nd Fence
10.795 Finians Rainbow
11.055 Kruguyrova
11.104 Afsoun
11.461 STANDARD
11.716 Araldur
12.637 Long Run2nd – 4th Fence
29.228 Finians Rainbow
29.257 Kruguyrova
29.791 Araldur
29.973 Afsoun
29.977 STANDARD
31.636 Long Run4th – 6th Fence
61.436 Finians Rainbow
61.748 Araldur
61.767 Kruguyrova
62.629 STANDARD
62.648 Afsoun
65.544 Long Run6th – 8th Fence
68.295 Finians Rainbow
68.710 Araldur
69.019 Kruguyrova
69.552 STANDARD
69.756 Afsoun
71.979 Long Run8th – 10th Fence
75.323 Finians Rainbow
75.939 Araldur
76.550 Kruguyrova
76.722 STANDARD
77.077 Afsoun
78.721 Long Run10th – Finish
91.847 Finians Rainbow
92.408 Araldur
92.605 STANDARD
92.795 Kruguyrova
92.878 Afsoun
93.099 Long Run
Before we look at the standards I can’t stress enough the importance of the percentages as you’ll rarely see a big chance between numbers which is why when you do come across one it’s quite significant so using up to 3 decimal places is more accurate.Looking at the standards from the start of the race to the fourth fence you can see Finians Rainbow is going 1% quicker than Kruguyrova, that’s the same mare who made a brave attempt to make all in the Arkle lasting home in second yet we make note that Finians Rainbow is being “Held up” whilst Stagecoach Pearl recent 22l and 15l winner in his previous races as a front runner, this is an excellent sign for those who may doubt his ability to go the early pace at Cheltenham.
The 6th to the 10th fence is where it gets interesting, you might ask why? Well the fences come in quick succession the horses are having to jump under pressure like a horse
being asked to go that stride quicker at Cheltenham which is a vital clue. We take Long Run, he’s 2% outside the standard between the 6th and the 10th including a few blunders in there and he subsequently failed to make his mark there twice with comments such as “not fluent, hit and blundered” it’s hardly inspiring whilst you see a horse such as Finians Rainbow exerting himself well under standard suggesting the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham is going to be no problem despite the small field critics in his way.Do you need stamina, do you need speed or do you need a horse that can exert his energy over solid fractions well in truth you’d love all three but not every horse has that in their armoury which is why we have Champion racehorses but in Finians Rainbow we have a horse who has at least 2 out of the 3 assets. There is no doubt from what I have seen from writing this report that he’s a perfect Arkle candidate who has the ability to jump at speed shown when exerting his energy across solid fractions that couldn’t be more clearly expressed when using the Kruguyrova sectional line whilst having the ability to put daylight amongst his rivals with a potent turn of foot, the only question I would ask is how long he can sustain it which frankly I can’t tell you because from what we’ve seen he’s been given an easy finish and for those of you who say an Arkle is like running 2 and a half miles then that’s the only way he’s going to get beat so if you fancy taking this beast on then you know your angle!
Thanks for reading.
Finians Rainbow – 9/2 for Arkle (BET365, Boylesports)
Nice performance from Captain Chris at Kempton.
In my opinion, he looks more of a three miler than a two miler. Shapes well over his fences, but I just think that he’s struggled in the jumping department because he’s been asked to compete against some seriously good, potentially high class two milers.
The way he stayed on at Sandown over two miles-five convinced me he would be a better horse over further and that opinion was reinforced this afternoon.
I think he could be a serious player in the King George next season. The dam stayed three miles and Kings Theatre has produced the likes of Wichita Lineman and, of course, Riverside Theatre.
The Gold Cup could stretch his stamina, but I wouldn’t completely dismiss it. Will follow with interest next season.
Captain Chris probably does have enough pace for 2 miles, but his jumping would be put under more pressure. As it would at a course like Cheltenham, stiff fences and more importantly left-handed. Don’t think it is a coincidence his improved form has come going right-handed.
One other point to consider:
If I owned Captain Chris I’d go for the Jewson.
If I owned both Captain Chris and Wishfull Thinking; I’d go for the Jewson with Wishfull Thinking and Arkle with Captain Chris.Captain Chris gives a compliment to Medermit.
Value Is EverythingWhy does Captain Chris have to run at Cheltenham? Hobbs was talking about the Course not suiting Quinz, where’s the indication it suits Captain Chris? He looks as if he wants two and half miles on a right-handed track so why not bypass Cheltenham and send him over to Ireland?
Why does Captain Chris have to run at Cheltenham? Hobbs was talking about the Course not suiting Quinz, where’s the indication it suits Captain Chris?
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Rac … 41,00.html
* His best hurdle rating at Cheltenham
* 4 length beating of Salden Licht at levels
* His highest speed ratingHurdles and fences are different though.
Am a great fan of the horse, put him in two lists of tentofollow at the start of the season.
However, Captain Chris jumps hurdles straight, runs down fences to the right. Might at some point grow out of it, but I doubt it. Think it is worth them having a go at Cheltenham, still might win. But as a punter I’d say worth opposing at current prices.Value Is EverythingI cannot see Captain Chris getting anywhere near winning an Arkle, he just isn’t good enough in regards to his jumping.
I like Captain Chris a lot as well but feel he’s a horse to follow next year rather than this.
To my eyes Captain Chris is a Jewson horse. Has an engine but also has a guess at his fences (Finnians Rainbow is the same) The more i look at this race the more i like my fiver at 25’s on Starluck. Why run in the CH and finish 5th or 6th when he can go for this ? I cant see anything in the field with his speed and i cant get excited by the opposition.
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Finian’s Rainbow guesses at his fences?
Captain Chris is this years Riverside Theatre,he will find it all happening a bit too quickly,Finians Rainbow would win in a canter if the race was decided on looks alone,unfortunately its not and his jumping will be tested to the limit,he will make a couple of blunders and its how he deals with them that will decide his fate.Ghizao looks progressive and is a fine stamp of a chaser but not even he will trouble
Medermit
,this has always been his target and it will be a repeat of his illustrious stable companions victories from My Way de Solzen and Voy Por Ustedes.
Starluck apparently is a non runner, Ted Walsh said it at Woodland’s preview night, Paul Ryan from Paddy Power also said this at the Paddy Power preview night.
JohnJ
Obvious, but rest assured that King will have Medermit primed for the Arkle after winning at Plumpton!! A £60K bonus will ensure that he is spot on.
The stats are pretty sketchy for the race but here goes.
Arkle Trophy
RACE TRENDS:
•22 of the last 24 winners finished in the top two last time out
•10 of the last 11 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles
•5 of the last 10 winners were the highest-rated hurdler in the field
•The last 20 winners have started at 11/1 or shorter, but only 3 favourites won
•Five year olds have won 4 of the last 11, but since 2008 there is no 5lb weight allowance
•The Irish have won 3 of the last 13 renewals
•French breds have won 7 of the last 16 renewals
•German breds have 1 win and 3 places from 10 runners since 2002I agree with Bosranic that this years Arkle seems below average Medermit has the hurdle form but is it good enough for Cheltenhams fences?…….upsides at the last then yeah i reckon it probably wins but it aint no certainty…Capt Chris did it nicely enough at Kempton and was brilliant at some of his fences…..couldnt take any liberties in this race though……….wouldnt be at all surprised to see a shock winner in this.
I have a feeling Mikael Dhagneut will run a huge race if he lines up for the Arkle. Already money around for him 20s into 12s. He was such an exciting prospect at the start of the season but everything went down hill after his fall when getting ready to hack up at Faireyhouse before christmas.
Providing he regains some confidence and gets a clear round of jumping in I can really see him going close. His class and ability is unquestionable and there is no better man to ready a winner than Mullins and get the horse spot on for the day!!
Well the 5 day decs are in and this race has clearly suffered badly for the intro of the Jewson Race.
A small and not especially select field. Well done Mr Gillespie.
Of the big 3 don’t really fancy Finian’s Rainbow and probably prefer Medermit to Ghizao unless it comes up soft. But if it did then Mikael D’Haguenet is also intriguing.
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