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I’m not certain the admittedley few Irish hopes are that far off. The market certainly underrates them on a line through Loosen My Load. He was attempting to give Ghizao 6lbs at Cheltenham when beaten by 10 lengths. Realt Dubh beat him by the same distance off level weights at Leopardstown. One is generally 5/1 joint-favourite and the other is a 14/1 shot. It doesn’t take a formbook genius to work out which one is the better value bet at the prices.
Quel Esprit is far too slow for an Arkle. He needs 3 miles and every yard of it at that. I wouldn’t give up on Mikael D’Haguenet just yet though. He clearly bounced the last day as there’s no way it was his true running. Realt Dubh was well behind him (before the last!) in the Drinmore. Obviously the horse has a few question marks to answer now and it’s a concern that he hasn’t had a target identified for him yet. Nevertheless, his current odds are an insult to his latent ability and if Willie was to get him back and prime him for the 15 March, I wouldn’t like to oppose him.
My shortlist currently has Finians Rainbow (12s), Medermit (16s) and Mikael D’Haugent (20s) and in brackets the prices I have already backed at.
I see willie has entered the mares. I think Blazing Tempo could run a right race.
Ran a smashing race today considering Thurles is just a horrible track with paddy field ground giving weight.
I am utterly convinced that Medermit wins The Arkle.
I’ve already baced Captain Chris, and I’ve now waded in on Alan King’s grey.
Finian’s Rainbow is hugely talented, but hasn’t had to jump a fence at pace yet – the horse has beaten a total of four rivals over 2 races (I know one of those is Hell’s Bay, but the trip was inadequate).
Medermit, maximum bet.
Medermit ticks all the boxes for the Arkle in that he was the best of this lot over hurdles and now he is also the best of this lot over fences. That is usually a compelling double for Arkle contenders.
Should be favourite.At the risk of being repetitive I also think Medermit has an excellent chance. Medermit surprised me this weekend, I think the beating of Captain Chris reads very well as I rate Ghizao too.
Medermit is a weak finisher and should be a double figure price. On lines through Hells Bay and now Captain Chris he clearly has a lot to find with Ghizao and Finian’s Rainbow. He was a ludicrous price for the Chapion Hurdle last year and it looks like history will be repeating itself next month.
I’d also point out he was only the best of these over hurdles because he raced over timber past his novice season, something FR wasn’t asked to do.
I backed Medermit ante post as he is very much the profile horse (5th to 8th in Champion Hurdle) but I am not massively confident.
Finians Rainbow looks very classy and promising but I cant help opposing him, I backed him twice in his novice hurdle days and he let me down twice in the Challow and the Neptune.
Those races would be closer to the test he will face in the Arkle and for that reason I am out.
Also haven’t forgiven myself for opting for him ahead of Peddlers in the Neptune last year. If he is good enough I will take my medicine.Does anyone think Rock Noir is overpriced? Yes he did look a little weak up the run-in on Saturday and may not be as battle-hardened as the likes of Medermit. However, Jonjo O Neil will no doubt bring about improvement in this one. He hit two fences hard enough on the backstraight at Sandown but got back on the bridle fairly quickly. With AP likely to ride and the possibility of a Mc Manus gamble I would say that 40/1 with SJ is worth an each-way bet.
I think Rock Noir hit the railway fences (whatever they are), the second time round, and I don’t think they have them at Cheltenham.
He seems to act best on soft or heavy, so should it turn out to be on the soft side, I think he’d look to have been an outstanding bet at that any kind of double figures. I bet on him a while ago, and more recently in the Jewson. His prices at present are outrageously generous, imo.
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Rock Noir hmm.
I think Rock Noir hit the railway fences (whatever they are), the second time round, and I don’t think they have them at Cheltenham.
He seems to act best on soft or heavy, so should it turn out to be on the soft side, I think he’d look to have been an outstanding bet at that any kind of double figures. I bet on him a while ago, and more recently in the Jewson. His prices at present are outrageously generous, imo.
I just saw this post this morning Grimes
. 310 on Betfair. Well done! Lets hope he runs…Aren’t any of you interested in Rock Noir of JP Mac? I had £2 on him at 310 on Betfair, and after he absolutely sauntered in a race last week, against not bad horses, he’s come into 25s – though he’s still available at 50s with BF.
But, imo, unless people know he’s not running in it, 16s would be generous. He was the best 4-year old hurdler in France, I believe, in 2009, beating Jumbo Rio half a length in a Grade 1.
I mean I saw this one this morning!
This appears to be a highly competitive Arkle, but I’m not convinced it’s a great renewal.
A few more questions will be answered this Saturday at Warwick, and Finian’s Rainbow will face his toughest challenge thus far. He was a very good novice hurdler, but has only faced four rivals in his two chase starts and the Kingmaker will pose an entirely different test.
He has enjoyed the luxury of leading in small fields, and they’re sure to go a tad quicker on Saturday – he hasn’t completely convinced with his jumping.
A horse I like for the Arkle – ground pending – is Kilmurry. He beat Ghizao at Cheltenham in October, but found the ground too tacky when returning to the venue in November. He has been given three months to recover from that race (made chase debut in July) and I think he’s overpriced.
Medermit is the one horse in the field that you know will act around the course, stay every yard in a truly run race and, most importantly, he has experience in a large, high-class field.
He split Go Native and Somersby when second in the Supreme two years ago in a twenty runner field and will not be found hiding in what is usually a rough race.
He has the right profile for an Arkle winner and will not finish outside the placings.
One horse it would be folly to underestimate is Mamlook. I don’t know how many Arkle winners have a Chester Cup on their CV, and I would imagine he’s more likely to go for the Jewson, but he jumped like a veteran on his only chase start and I think he’s been overlooked in both markets.
He has also been declared to run in the Kingmaker and it will be interesting to see how he fares over a sharp two miles.
I supported both Tidal Bay and Sizing Europe in recent years and this race has been kind to me. Much will depend on the ground for Kilmurry and I could not support him until the day. Medermit will thrive in the this type of contest and he has to go close.
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