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I kinda picked up that vibe too Hoss. ‘If he runs Tom will school him in the morning. He’s not fully wound up yet….’ sounds more like a negative than a positive.
If he avoids this line up you can assume they are reluctant to over face him in the gold cup also.Suggestion on twitter that TS has said GC will run in Argento.
The Minack would have been my selection but despite PFN saying he runs, the Betfair market suggests he won’t.
TFR looks to me to have something wrong with him – he seems to run with the choke out in these top races and I’d want to see a top notch performance at this level before backing him though he has done me a few favours in the past.
I’ve watched R Johnson have too many disagreements with horses at obstacles to back anything he rides. A number of horses seem to guess at jumps – hurdle and ‘chase – with RJ, not always obvious in the form book as I’ve seen more than one come up a stride too soon, occasionally taking off outside the wings – looks spectacular but suggests to me the horse has a lack of confidence in RJ.
Diamond Harry is 2 from 4 at Cheltenham despite his trainer’s suggestion he might be unsuited by the track. Newbury has helped make his reputation (5 from 6) and he’s also quite fragile. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well but wouldn’t back him to do so at 11/2.
If you are willing to accept trainer and jock’s assertion that Carruthers had something ailing him last season, and forgive his last run in desperate ground at Chepstow, he might well be the value at 20/1. Master of the Hall appeals too at 33s EW although he needs to lose his habit of blundering badly. But Geraghty is riding better than ever, and is rivalled only by Ruby round Cheltenham, imo, and if there is to be a surprise I think it might come from the NJH horse.
All told, Grands Crus probably hasn’t that much to beat although he will need to learn to settle to get home and my suspicion is that although he might win, he won’t see it out well enough to persuade connections to go for the big one.
Final verdict would be a small EW bet on Master of the Hall.
Think
Midnight Chase
at 10/1 is an absolute cracking bet for this. Ran a blinder under a huge weight on softer ground than probably ideal last time, that was the first sign of showing some of the excellent form that sent him to the Gold Cup last year.
Will prefer the better ground and has an excellent record at Cheltenham with 4 wins registered.
I reckon at least two of the front 4 in the betting in front of him will falter and I don’t see anything at a bigger price to worry about, so looks sure to finish top 3 at least for me!!
Midnight Chase for me. The way he travelled though his last race was eyecatching, giving lumps of weight away to the winner According To Pete, who came out and won again at the weekend.
As already stated, loves Cheltenham, and despite capitulating in The Gold Cup, he kept on, and was a lot closer at the end than he’s given credit for.
Of the others, could make a case for most of them, but 12’s seems a very fair price for Midnight, and would be very hopeful he could place at the very least. This, however, is one of those occasions, where the horse who should be fav, is 12-1, and he’s a very big win bet for me here.
Whatever happens, cracking line up at the moment, and hope they all take their chance.
Some of that will be pre-emotive money based on the possibility of a Grand Crus defection. The market is coming in line with my perception of the race nonetheless. No doubt price wise will put up midnight chase or something and turn it on its head Saturday AM anyway!
its been raining a lot @ chelt atm – we have had a fair bit tonight and its heavy right now
as of now its torrential
It’s definitely a race to watch for me, although I wouldn’t have a piece of Grands Crus for a second. This is a very hot renewal, and while I don’t doubt his future credentials for a second, I’d rather fancy the 2nd season chasers here.
Getting weight, I do fancy Tidal Bay e/w if he jumps well enough, but let’s be fair, that’s a massive if! He could definitely run a big race though as Nicholls has revelled in this race over the last couple of years, and Tidal Bay looks like he’s been aimed at it.
Captain Chris is without question the best horse in the race, and people are assuming that he wasn’t fit in the King George, and that he will be now. I’d go against that conclusion, and say that this is just another step forward for him. Captain Chris is a much better horse than we saw on Boxing Day, but I can’t imagine that we’ll see the best of him on Saturday. It’s an open Gold Cup year and I’m sure Philip Hobbs of all people is aware of that, and his fitness in March is of the upper must importance.
Time For Rupert is another interesting runner for me. His last run at Newbury is sure to have given him some well needed confidence, and he could well run like the horse he promised to be on Saturday against a field without a fully established star, on a track that he loves.
As for Diamond Harry, he’s never liked Cheltenham and never will, so for anyone who has forgotten this, he simply won’t win round the track of champions.
As I said before I’m not getting stuck into this one, but if I were to, it’d probably be Time For Rupert win/Tidal Bay each way/Reverse forecast the 2.
With grand crus avoiding this ‘hotter’ race will we see him versus long run in the AON? Not likely. I’d say anyone with an AP ticket on Grand Crus for the gold cup will be frustrated at the merry dance Mr Pipe has played the media. Same every year with the al ferof/grand crus novice skipping the novice races hype. Seen it all before and I’m glad to say I don’t fall for it anymore.
With the new shape to this race at current prices I would say Tidal is too short to trust. Carruthers at 20’s may run a decent race.Obviously that 6/1 feels awful good now but what a bummer.
What was David Pipe hoping? Nothing else was going to turn up.
Gawd knows they’ve have plenty time to come to the conclusion the horse can’t handle running in a competitive race 7 weeks before his next run
I’d be very careful about backing him ante post for anything now as this just doesn’t smell right.
Fair point fist there is a whiff of suspicion that could be read into his defection. As far as full company goes he was probably looking for a soft Argento like last year which this race is definately not. That being said its perfectly winnable if the horse is good enough. Could just be that pipe feels he has the RSA winner in the stable and doesn’t want to risk his confidence prior to the big day. Connections have come a gallant second to big bucks twice at festivals last season and it may be the RSA is their best chance of a Cheltenham winner.
Is diamond Harry lining up? Stable I very quiet.although ive told myself only to back on the day of this race, im regretting not taking the 6’s on offer for diamond harry.
2/1 seemed high anyway to me for a horse like grands crus running basically against dissapointments this season you could say.
markets like this are always suspicious. roll on saturday.
Tidal Bay for me 2nd in this last year and the year before in the same meeting he won the Cleeve Hurdle beating among many others Time For Rupert.
If he jumps which he will he’ll win.The 10/1 I got before GC’s defection looking very good now. Worry is Captain Chris but I think just be at the top of his range over three miles, we’ll see.
I half thought about laying of some of my bet on Captain Chris but taking it he stays and I’m just about certain he will this all of a sudden looks like a steering job and 3’s look way too big.
Diamond Harry has been plagued with problems and the only time they have managed to get him on the race course in 14 months was at Haydock. For a horse who is best when fresh he ran a total stinker and there is no reason to think he’ll run any better here. You’d need a huge leap in faith to even consider backing him.
Time For Rupert who I thought was a Gold Cup horse in the making hasn’t faired much better since he was firmly put in his place by Weird Al. He did mange to win last time but against horses that would be tailed off here and he was far from impressive. Even if he can reproduce his run behind Weird Al it surely wouldn’t be good enough to win this.
Midnight Chase is a nice horse but he’s failed 3 times now to show anything that would suggest he’s up to this.
It’s hard not to like The Minack but will he run? I see he’s entered for the Hennessy and would expect he would go there and Tidal Bay will run here.
Tidal Bay. Can PN tranform this vagabond into a proper racehorse? I doubt if anyone could he’s won 1 race in 16 outings and even at his very very best he’s an Arkle winner taking on a better Arkle winner IMO
I just don’t see any danger to Captain Chris just a whole lot of maybe’s and if’s
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