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Just for you Esc, they let me out of the day centre today to do a quick research job.
I’ve had a look at 30 early price betting markets over the jumps since the Thomas Pink meeting. I compared the prices of the big three (Lads, Hills, Coral) and threw in the Tote for good measure.
Looking at the prices available against the winners of these races:
Ladbrokes were longest price (or equal longest) 13 times.
Coral and the Tote were longest price (or equal longest) 8 times.
Hill were longest price (or equal longest) 7 times.
(To be fair, Coral weren’t quoted in 3 of these markets, and Hill weren’t quoted in one.)
But hey. Everyone believes Ladbrokes tend to get it right, so the cliche is alive and well.
Escorial-Surely the main factor in the improved form shown by Shooting Light is the ground.All his best form is on good ground and he put up some cracking performances when trained by the shrewd Pat Murphy on ALL types of ground.<br>I am not saying he has not improved under Pipe but I am convinced he would have shown the same improvement under Murphy given the ground conditions on which he has raced this season.
(Edited by beard at 1:11 pm on Feb. 27, 2002)
Remittance Man – that’s really useful work – nice one.
I do look to see if Ladbrokes are short on a horse – probably won’t take much notice now.
re Champion Hurdle – personally I’m keen to find a big outsider each way.
Sorry ratpack, I just came up with those figures on the spot, I wasn’t going to work out the overround. I basically would have Isty favourite, Landing Light second favourite and not much between NK and Valiramix [although personally I believe Valiramix to be more a 10-12/1 shot]
Valiramix may have improved, but the fact is. He has won a four runner race. That is all. You would have a hard time trying to convince me it was stronger than the Champion Hurdle Ned Kelly won, or indeed, the race Isty won. Bust Out wasn’t that far off Ned Kelly last year and I think he would give The French Furze a good race. The lack of Cheltenham last year and subsequent injury means his rating is crap, but a lot of novices around are relatively unexposed due to the fact they didn’t run at Chelt. last year …
Remember, The French Furze didn’t get near NK at Leopardstown. They tried different tactics, coming off the pace and staying on for prize money, ala Theatreworld
The fact is, Valiramix is a classic example of hype horse. And the fact is, in relation to the thread, that it’s not just Irish punters that can be blinkered
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Sorry Dan but think your contradicting your arguement here. I really dont think it would be fair to have Valiramix at 10-12/1 while Ned Kelly at 6’s. While I think Ned Kelly could well be the better horse he has as much to prove as Valiramix does. You point to The French Furze,on form line Valiramix is the better horse through him.Indeed many would argue that the French Furze didnt run to form in Ireland due to the different tactics employed.<br> I dont fancy Valiramix to win but neither could I rule him out as I wouldnt rule Ned Kelly out either. The three in the market behind Istabraq are pretty closely grouped with me favouring Landing Light out of those to chase Istabraq home with Hor La Loi in third maybe.
Ok Aidan, but I firmly believe on his wins to runs ratio and the fact he would have beaten LL were it not for bad jockey performance that Ned Kelly is simply better than Valiramix, but I would probably put them close together in the market,
For me, HLL is the only one that can stop Isty if Isty has a chink in his armour …
Escorial – I have been banging on for a while now about Geos.I f he makes it to post fit and well 33/1 is a great each way price.<br>I would love to see Istabraq win and Landing Light must run a big race.I think punters restricting themselves to the first four in the betting is a recipe for disaster.It is Cheltenham and the other horses wont just lie down.
No way An C, not going back …
It’s got to the point where even my serious opinions are always going to be ridiculed. What is the point ? There’ll always be a sniper out to get everything I say !
There is a minority there that are so clueless, they would probably still tell you Hitler was a great guy even if you pointed out all his crimes to them … <br>
the triple champion has nothing left to prove but i think that time is up still makes him the one to beat dont know the price exactley 5/2 ring any bells  looks like trouble is actually in the same form as two years ago and just might now have the edge.<br>
esc, geos was good enough last year at levels to finish ahead of valiramix…
don’t you just find it a bit odd that after valiramixs win the handicapper raised him 9lbs but when rodock mirrored the performance he chose not to raise him at all off 155??
and no i dont think TFF has improved at all i pointed out somewhere else exactly to what figure’s hes beeen running this year and he is exactly what he was last year..a moderare handicapper whose connections have realised it’s more profitable to place in sub-standard conditions races than face a tricky task in handicaps
i will he admit he is admirably consistent though which is why i keep pointing out the rodock run.
in my book…if it’s not form then it’s hype..valiramix hasn’t shown improved form yet..therefore he is indeed a hype horse
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