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I read that "Cheltenham – Them and Us’ a year or more ago. It was very disappointing. It never addresses the point of the title. There are lots of storeis about the Irish at Cheltenham but it utterly failed to convey any of the atmosphere, the crack and it had nothing to say about the ‘them and us’ factor. <br>It has been revised and updated this year so maybe the new edition is better.
2 weeks to go …
agree with most of what you said, but what many find insulting and what is more than a little patronising, which to be honest i dont think you mean, is that we irish cant see the difference between a string of 1’s in front of a horse and genuinely good form. As a nation we are not that stupid. There is a hype ffactor beside some horses. horses like Danoli, Imperial call, Limestone lad, Istabraq get cult following. Danoli won a hennessey from Jodami and Imperial call ,a sun alliance hurdle, two aintree hurdles.
Best mate on the other hand was beaten by irish horses in both its two biggest races.
On sackville, at the beginning of the year deserved to be fav for the gold cup, he is indifferent to ground, won on teh course, truly stays, progressive. He has Lord noelie beaten in my opinion. Now, that he has lost his form to the extent that he has done is something that couldnt have been predicted. Maybe they went too often with him last year, but he is not the same horse that won teh CH, no matter how much his present form seems to bolster some lopsided arguements against the horse.
I think you might agree with me on this one that the two grade one races won by rodock and tresor de mai lately were the worst seen in a long time. tin pot races if i ever saw them. Even golden goal.
Just to add a deliberately controversial note. If an English horse won one of the big races at the Punchestown festival & was greeted by the world & his wife invading the parade ring, singing God save the Queen and waving Union Jacks, would that be "Great craic" or appaling jingoism?
I was at Kempton and was ashamed to be English at the complete lack of sporting reception given to Florida Pearl in the winner’s enclosure.
All those reserved types who’d done their dough on First Gold and Best Mate couldn’t find it in themselves to muster a bit of collective enthusiasm for a grand old horse and multiple grade 1 winner. Thank God this couldn’t happen at Cheltenmham, I remember saying to myself. And it couldn’t – largely because of the Irish.
I hope to God there are more things in life than being an unblinkered punter; like a true and unabashed love for the sport, which the Irish have in spades.
See you in a couple of weeks boys.
Punchestown is’nt great for the receptions either……….its improving but still not what you’d expect.Cheltenham is just special.
rip into any ‘hype horse’ do you esc??
barton beats TFF easy in first run of year and eyes up CH..hype horse yells esc no chance in the CH
valiramix beats TFF easy in first run of year and eyes up CH..of course says esc, he’ll easily win that cos pipe and someone he knows says he’s improved
hmmmm… :)
I was astonished to see the other day Valiramix has only had one run this year. I was convinced he’s had more given his lofty status in the market,
It is an absolute JOKE !! That is the biggest hype horse around at the moment !! On that reckoning, Boss Doyle should be 7/2 for the Stayers ….
Anyway, when you talk about sporting receptions you gotta think about Looks Like Trouble when he won at Down Royal. Most of the crowd wanted to see FP win but they recognised a true champion with the reception he got,
Both countries have hype horses. If a horse trained by Pipe or Henderson wins one or two races they are straight into the head of the market for the big races ..
I mean, have you seen some of the Pipe horses that have actually contested the Gold Cup in recent years ?! Unsinkable Boxer to name just one !! And people take Shooting Light seriously ??!? Madness
Daniel
Statements like yours certainly lend credence to the title of this tread. I cannot comprehend how you draw an anlaogy between a horse that has been beaten comprehensivley in his optimum division this season and one that has absolutely crucified his opposition in his optimum division in his only start of the season.
You claim that Valiramix has no right to be that price at the moment, but if you were making a book, who is worthy enough to be placed ahead of him in the market? He laughed at The French Furze (who is a very good yardstick) with Hors La Loi in another parish. Furthermore, with Hors La Loi’s victory in the Kingwell this form is looking a lot more solid.
That places everything bar Istabraq and Landing Light behind him, as he beat The French Furze with arguably more ease than Ned Kelly.
I agree that he is too short (and I don’t think he will win), but only by a point and a half, as I think Landing Light deserves to be ahead of him on what he has achieved this season. The fact of the matter remains that he has put up the best 2 mile performance of the season, and with no doubts over his current well being and fitness, and with so many circulating in relation to the current champion, it is no joke that he occupies second place in the champion hurdle market.
The French Furze. Very Good Yardstick. <br>This cliche is beginning to play havoc with my sides.
My spread on the number of times The French Furze is referred to as (wait for it) Averygoodyardstick over the next two weeks is 500-550, but I’m only going to be accommodating sellers.
How about:<br>The French Furze. One Paced.
Ladbrokes. Who Tend To Get Most Things Right.
There’s another one! Care to back up this age-old cliche with some stats, Escorial?
I’m not a handicapper, ratpack, so I can’t help you on my idea of a "good yardstick". I suppose I tend to concentrate on the particular conditions of a race (track, ground, distance, class) rather than:
(1) the number of lengths The French Furze happened to toil home behind Valiramix or Ned Kelly or Rodock,
(2) whether 10 year olds have done it before and if so whether they were "late maturing types" because if they were that will help an argument against Istabraq,
(3) whether Ladbrokes are going low about the one I fancy,
and so on.
I’m not knocking handicappers and their ratings. It’s natural to look at past results, analyse them objectively and rate horse A against horse B. Thankfully, the game is complex and at times unpredictable, so there is room for different ways of making it pay (or trying to make it pay).
ratpack, I should clarify …
If Boss Doyle had just run at Wetherby this year, in that one race …and hadn’t raced since would he be a short priced favourite ?
Some horses run well at the start of the season against horses who are slow coming to themselves …Valiramix and Isty have had one run, and both run this year,
Valiramix beat the French Furze …so what ? And HLL is not any kind of reliable formstick. At his best, and Valiramix’s best to date HLL would win ..easily. Valiramix has a lot to prove and does not deserve to be 7/2 for a Champion Hurdle
Can people not see this ?!
He has won a FOUR runner race this year and he is up there at that price when last year he was beaten by Landing Light, and running in handicaps. He came 16th in the Triumph
Can you honestly tell me if this horse was trained by anyone else than Pipe, or say Henderson that he would be that price in the market ? If he was trained by Noel Meade or O’Grady would he be that price ?! Would he **** !!
This is a perfect example about how English, and not just Irish punters can be blinkered/stupid
I’d say Isty favourite at 2/1,
Landing Light second favourite at 4/1 ish ..
Valiramix, Ned Kelly around the same price, 6 or 7/1
<br>Do you think The French Furze would beat Hors La Loi by 25 lengths ??
If you do, well god bless you but the form of Valiramix race is not reliable and not a reflection of HLL ability !!
Remittance Man
So my interpretation of form is cliched. Well, forgive me, but I (along with most students of form) will go upon past results and how far certain horses ‘toil’ in behind others. That is how handicap ratings are derived, and how horses obtain official ratings and until you derive a more sophisticated one, I think I’ll just have to accept the fallacies of objective analysis.
Incidentally, the criteria which you state you find helpful e.g. the particular conditions of a race (track, ground, distance, class), I too find very helpful and are very important in determining the outcome of the race.
However, the performance of a particular horse against another (no matter how ordinary or one paced) supercedes these factors, and I therefore will always place this above all other criteria in determining the outcome of a race.
Daniel
Thanks for clarifying the Boss Doyle point. The fact remains that Boss Doyle’s Wetherby win wasn’t the best performance of the season in his optimum division, whereas Valiramix’s was the best performance in his optimum division.
The fact that Valiramix beat The French Furze may not be terribly important in your eyes. However, the distance and comprehensive ease which he accounted for him, relative to the other contenders victories over same, is a major factor. This is precisely the point which I have taken issue with Remittance Man. The fact that he could beat TFF hard held, whereas Landing Light and Ned Kelly couldn’t (ground, track, distance etc. aside) lends me to believe (and obviously the bookmakers) that he should enjoy a higher rating than the afore mentioned and, therefore, he should enjoy a loftier position in the Champion Hurdle market.
Perhaps the Pipe/McCoy factor is imputed into this horses’ price, but I wouldn’t let that fact colour my judgement of the horses chance in the race. Just as I wouldn’t let it influence me if Edward O’Grady, Noel Meade or even Aidan O’Brien trained it. I’m Irish, so you can’t accuse me of being blinkered in this regard. The form is there for all to see in black and white, and it reads pretty favourably.
Just as a footnote Daniel, I note that your Champion Hurdle overround comes to no higher than 85%. If this is the case, you must see something that we have all missed. Would you care to enlighten us??
Hey ratpack, there’s no need to get ratty.
I saw Valiramix win at Newbury that day, and I remember thinking, "Bloody hell, that was good."
But then I thought about the quality of that Bula. Forget for one moment that The French Furze is A Very Good Yardstick. Are you really telling me that this is the best form we can turn to as we go into this year’s Champion Hurdle? If so – what a sad indictment for the quality of hurdling in 2002.
(But wait! He Could Do No More Than Win It As He Pleased (Racing Cliche #48)).
Do you think Valiramix is athletic enough to cope with Cheltenham? Do you think he can quicken off a fast pace on fast ground?
Do you think he’s good enough to beat an arthritic, nervy, 10 year old let loose in his own private playground? Do you?
Hi Esc. Do you know what? I love stats. I really do. But this is weird – I don’t like yours much. I’ve never weighed up a race, settled on my selection, and suddenly bolted up in my seat and screamed, "No! The Magic Sign Are Longest Price About My Horse. I Haven’t Got A Prayer!" Either I’m unhinged or you need to get out more.
esc you keep saying val’s one race is enough but as ive pointed out rodock ran to just about the same figure as val against TFF so how come you don’t think he’s gonna win the CH?? PLUS you didnt think the exact same form was good enough when barton did it last season
you have mentioned several times that both pipe and someone else have claimed that valiramix is a better horse this year and that..without SOLID form is hype..pure and simple
now i dont care if you follow the hype or not but you hypocrasy surprises me
daniel made a very good point about you clingling to the fact HLLwas beaten that day and if you really believe that TFF is better than HLL than i despair<br>sure he’s been more consistent this year than last but it doesnt mean he has to run to form in every single race and if the evidence suggest he didnt then why question it??
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