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Now that connections have convinced themselves he is ground dependant (or at least needs soft in the description), his Arc run will depend on what ground they get at Longchamp and my guess is that anything quicker than good to soft and they won’t run him and I would imagine that they will also keep the ‘only 13 days between the two races’ in their back pocket as a back up excuse for not running him if it is just on the soft side of good.
As I have said in many previous threads, I am firmly of the opinion that he would have won last years Arc but unless there is signifcant rain in France, I feel they have squandered his best chance of winning the race as the wheels have slightly come off of this season campaign.
With the way things have gone it wouldn’t surprise me if we have a dry Autumn and the Arc & Champion Stakes both end up being run on good ground and we end up not seeing him in either race. Which to me would be hypocritical of them as he won the Ganay impressively on officially good ground in a fast time.
Connections have no problem running Cracksman on Good ground LD73; it’s just when “firm” is somewhere in the description Cracksman comes out.
Value Is EverythingPersonally, I am still not convinced the ground was the issue (to me he didn’t look like a horse that was ill at ease on the ground in the POW – take the winner out and he would have been a 8L winner and everybody would have been hyping him even more).
I would have run him in the Juddmonte as a couple of days before the race the official ground was given as a split between good & good to soft and although it quickened up I can’t believe it would have been as quick as Ascot in the height of summer and you most likely would have got a definitive answer as to whether he could go on it or not and still had time to prepare him for the Arc.
I just hope they stick to their words and don’t conveniently find an excuse not to run him if it is good ground at Longchamp.
If Enable is fit she takes this again by 2+ lengths. She is a wonder filly. Even 7/4 is with taking now. I’ve doubled her up in all sorts of bets
I’ll be surprised if Cracksman swerves this because he has been kept in training specifically for this race! I can see him running at Ascot too, but I think he runs here. Enable goes on to the BC Turf and stays in training next season.
I backed Cracksman early doors for this but
I also think there’s a possibility Cracksman will run at Ascot instead
It happened last year
and had Enable been fit it would of been her running in the KG on whatever going despite what the owner was saying simply because shes the better horse.
Plenty of question marks this season regard Cracksman’s runsBlackbeard to conquer the World
Waldgeist was seriously impressive today. He’s a player in the Arc now, trained by the Arc master.
Waldgeist is an each-way shout for sure.
I don’t think he beat a great field there though. Capri looked as slow as the Titanic and Cloth Of Stars just hasn’t sparked this year. If you take his second place in the Arc away, he just doesn’t look a group 1 horse. Talismanic seems a bit in and out to me. He ran a stinker in Dubai early in the year and has never actually had back to back wins over 19 races.
10/1 Each-Way is a bet but I can’t really see him touching Enable if she gets there in one piece.
The other worry would be Waldgeist’s Saint Cloud win, where he scrambled home from Coronet. The Gosden horse was thumped and then beaten further by Sea Of Class, albeit that she may not run here. From nine runs since that GRand Prix win only Coronet has placed and the other eight were unplaced efforts.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Enable is a best priced 5/4 now. Waldgeist is single figures now.
Sky Bet and Paddy Power go 16/1 for Capri on Oddschecker. Do these firms not have access to recent results or something? Is it Oddschecker quoting incorrect odds?
Capri was very disappointing on his comeback and other firms offer 40/1. Unless they are fitting him with a Turbo engine he is unlikely to better last year’s effort in the race. 16/1? Sweet Baby Jebus.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is it Oddschecker quoting incorrect odds?
Just checked both firms
On this occasion they are in lineI see a few quoting Poets Word even although he’s been ruled out for the season
It takes them seconds to shorten when a horse is a confirmed runner, yet hours if not days to chalk one off that is ruled outBlackbeard to conquer the World
I didn’t even realise Poet’s Word had been ruled out!
On Capri, he did look laboured, but judging by AOB’s quotes he was literally having a pipe-opener…wouldn’t be surprised if he improved a fair bit for it- but firstly he’d need to and secondly on last years running, that would still see him struggle.
I have 140s on him but not holding my breathe.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Judging by what’s happening in the markets regarding the stable companions suspect Cracksman will miss this in favour of the Champion.
Value Is EverythingMy guess is the outcome, and what turns upon the day, will all come down to the prevailing ground conditions. The forecast for the SE of England for the next two weeks is dry & sunny so I’d guess the going in Paris will probably be decent.
Enable doesn’t look ground dependent although a bit of dig might be more in her favour. She looks bullet proof and her current odds probably reflect her chances. Cracksman appears to want dig but his Champion stakes win looks a good bit better than anything else he’s achieved and I’m still not sure whether he’s a 10 or 12 furlong horse. I suppose he’ll only run if the ground is softer than good (Mr Oppenheimer doesn’t seem to be so adamant this year regarding jockey bookings so if Frankie chooses Enable Cracksman may still run).
Sea of Class, as has been noted elsewhere on this blog, won’t run on anything worse than good, which looks likely, but I doubt whether she’ll be good enough even though she appears to be the most likely improver among the leading fancies. Waldgeist was very impressive in the Foy, has a master trainer in his corner and looks more straightforward this year. He too might not want the ground too quick.
Overall, Enable must be the most likely winner and Waldgeist the best e/w bet. It’s difficult to see anything getting involved from out of the bigger prices so Capri (anywhere between 14’s & 40’s) and Crystal Ocean look the next best (neither being ground dependent).
A.O.B will probably throw a few darts at this as usual; anyone fancy Kew Gardens; personally I can’t have him on my mind.
A good jockey doesn't need orders and a bad jockey couldn't carry them out; so it's best not to give them any.
Yeah orabist like i said earlier on this i thought cracksman might swerve this because enable, but if the ground turns up slightly better than good which is looking likely, he definitely wont run, although, the ground will still be listed as soft even if its concrete.
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