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No idea if Poet’s Word is a definite runner but, for a horse that was hailed the best middle distance horse in the world until giving weight to a horse who may prove to be the best 1 mile 2 furlong horse of the year, 10-1 seems like a decent enough price compared to others
Haggas has said Sea Of Class will only go to France if it’s good or better, opining that 120,000 euros to supplement is a lot of money to spend if it’s going to be soft. He reckons that she will stay in training next year and that she can always enter next year’s Arc. He was quite adamant she will not run if the ground is soft.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve taken the 5/1 pink button on her now, which leaves me in a freebie position with her regardless.
The race will be a totally different kettle of fish to what she’s used to + with the ground question marks, it would be mad not to get out early in my opinion.
I am tempted to do the same with by Crystal Ocean bet, basically, if he is to turn up on Saturday + even with the weights how they are, if Enable thumps him badly, i would say my bet won’t be as good looking as he’ll drift accordingly.
My attempt at finding a massive odds winner was Capri, times running out for him slightly, however, it was always planned he’d have an Autumn campaign this year as he had an early setback. It’s possible the virus hasn’t helped his comeback + i will await his “prep” run to see where i stand, though its likely my big price could become even bigger! As long as he comes back A1, i think he’s got a sneaky chance.
As i said above i am now becoming tempted to add Enable as a back to lay option.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The issue with looking at Enable’s form last year and claiming it to be superior is that you don’t know if the filly is still the same one as that. The number of horses who have had semi-serious injuries and not come back from them is countless. It’s a sheer guessing game that she’s still able to run to 130+.
There’s better 5/1 shots running today than Enable.Great to hear Capri going to Prix Foy followed by hopefully the Arc!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The issue with looking at Enable’s form last year and claiming it to be superior is that you don’t know if the filly is still the same one as that. The number of horses who have had semi-serious injuries and not come back from them is countless. It’s a sheer guessing game that she’s still able to run to 130+.
There’s better 5/1 shots running today than Enable.Yep, i wouldn’t be sure she’ll be the winner of the Arc, but i am planning on having a position on her regardless- 5/1 today, could well be 2/1 come raceday.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The trouble is that if you don’t back Enable at 5/1 and she wins nicely on Saturday, you have more or less ruled yourself out of backing her at all.
I have explained why I feel Sea Of Class is worse value and can easily write on why others represent poorer value than Enable.
You can’t really say there are better value 5/1 bets running today and then not list those better value 5/1 horses. In not presenting the horses in question nobody can see whether they actually were value. One horse would have sufficed and had it indeed won at 5/1 then the position would have been lying dormie awaiting Enable winning the Arc to tie the match.
Regarding Capri, he has had a strange season. I don’t think he beat much back in April and it could be that Leger runner up Crystal Ocean has improved past him since. Official handicap ratings indicate that this is highly likely, as the Stoute horse is now 129 to Capri on 120. Capri could still improve himself but the scenario is not ideal and the big worry has to be how poorly Capri ran in last year’s Arc, where he was a 20/1 shot. He looks poor value to me at only 5 points bigger when you take all the factors into mind this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
But you also have to factor that IF she doesn’t win on Saturday your bet is not value.
At least at 2/1 after winning well you would know where you stand with her, at 5/1 just now you don’t.But you also have to factor that IF she doesn’t win on Saturday your bet is not value.
At least at 2/1 after winning well you would know where you stand with her, at 5/1 just now you don’t.Fair chance Crystal Ocean pulls out no?
I would say if she runs close and visibly isn’t given to hard a ride, her price won’t change much…as long as it’s Crystal Ocean that wins it.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Was shocked to see him running tbh, thought they’d have gone ICS but i guess Stoute doesn’t want to drop in trip like his assist said he would.
It certainly wouldn’t shock to see him pull out, if he does and she wins can books justify going 2/1 against such a poor field at Kempton?
If CO runs and she’s given a semi-hard race she would be a contender for bouncing.
The potential pitfalls are already built into Enable’s price. She would not be 5/1 if the doubts did not exist.
Bookies are dangling the 5/1 carrot because they know that punters won’t take 2/1 say.
Taking the 5/1 is gambling on the doubts being overcome. You would be trusting that the trainer feels she is on the way back. Every ante-post bet looks goosed if the horse gets badly beaten next time it runs.
It’s better that Crystal Ocean runs in the September Stakes because the race would otherwise have taught us little about Enable. I wouldn’t back Enable at 4/6 against Crystal Ocean because he’s a danger for sure in these circumstances. I think the 2/1 on the Stoute horse is the value on Saturday and it covers the Arc bet on Enable should he Triumph and a small profit to boot.
Hard to say what price Enable goes with a victory. It depends on the style of the performance but she won’t be 5/1 and that was my point all along.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If she wins well she will shorten massively
If she just gets beaten the price wont change, if shes fairly well hammered the price isnt likely to come out THAT much more probably 10/1 at best as before the off you can be assured that JG will be crystal clear that this is just a “prep” 11/2 is a win win for me im struggling to see it not being a decent investment
I might take some of it
What is the weight for age allowance in this with SOC and enable should they line up?
I reckon it’s 7 lbs weight for age Ham.
The year older Seventh Heaven carried 9 st 2 lbs in last years’ Arc to Enable’s 8 st 9 lbs.
Crystal Ocean carries 9 st 10 lbs on Saturday with Enable on 9 st 2 lbs. If she can’t beat him on those terms then when can she?
A lot may depend on whether Crystal Ocean truly improved 7 lbs in the King George. We saw Salouen get an 8 lbs rise on OR’s out of the blue for running Cracksman close. I was pilloried for suggesting that might be a fluke result but the handicapper has already retreated 4 lbs from the mark he gave and Salouen has run 11 and 9 lbs below his new RPR high figure from Epsom on his last two starts. Assessors do make mistakes and it’s spotting them early that saves you money long term.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bit of a longshot but you can certainly make a case for Cloth of Stars if returning to his best. Found had a horrible run the year before she won and COS was very similar. He was boxed in all the way up the straight and was really cruising when Enable flew for home, but he could not get out in time.
Ran some really strange races this year which looked like blatant non triers to me and will be a fair bit better off at the weights than last year.
Salouen profited from a easy lead and great ride that day Steve, that won’t happen every race he runs, so he won’t be running as well each race.
I am backing Enable not because i think she’ll win the Arc, just because i want a position on her. Even if she doesn’t have CO to face on Saturday, she’ll probably win easy enough, and be cut regardless. Put it this way, i don’t see her being 5s on Arc day regardless if she wins on Saturday. Even if she is given a tender ride on Saturday and is beaten within a length, but it’s clear she wasn’t pushed, i’d say she still is favourite come Arc day.
It is a prep after all.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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