- This topic has 237 replies, 39 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Lah Ti Dar put up a Group 1 performance in a Listed race today. Lightly raced – has more improvement in her and action should suit softer ground. I would’ve been interested in backing her for this if an intended runner. However, with both Enable and Cracksman one would think Gosden might try somewhere else and Frankie says Lah Ti Dar must go for the St Leger (he wants them to be kept apart).
Value Is EverythingI was fairly impressed with Sea Of Class today, she won with a bit more in hand than winning distances suggest, is progressive with more improvement in her. I like unbeaten horses and am Haggas’s biggest fan. However, you’re not going to like this… Enable beat Coronet by twice as far in her Yorkshire Oaks and that was eased down! Sea Of Class is yet to beat another real top class horse and her form is still somewhat short of what you’d expect of an Arc winner. So far kept to her own sex and although Forever Together and Coronet are good amongst fillies; they’re not ones I’d describe as able to take on the best colts (witness the King George). Coronet may not have been at her very best at Ascot; but was 9 lengths behind Crystal Ocean. Even with a 3 lbs allowance Sea Of Class has imo still got another 7 lbs+ to reach Crystal Ocean’s level and unlike SOC he’s proven on both a firm and (likely Arc ground) soft surface.. and available at almost double the price! Get on!!!
Sea Of Class’s action is of a typical top-of-the-ground, daisy cutter, sound surface racehorse, who (probably no coincidence) is yet to run on good-soft, let alone soft… And taken out of a soft ground Oaks – an Oaks she had (at the time) a first rate chance of winning! Way she’s ridden for a turn of foot probably won’t be as effective on a soft surface either and those dropped out the back don’t win many Arcs. Needs supplimenting too. Is the worst value bet for this race. 5/1 best price, I’d want better than 10/1 right now. If it did come up on the firm side of good might be a different proposition.
Value Is EverythingHad a quick peak in the Racing Post to see what Pricewise had gone for in this.He has gone for Loxley @ 25/1
Had a quote from AOB about Capri basically saying he was heading off to France for an Arc trial then the Arc. Pascal Barry said Irish Champion or Arc trial for Study of Man ( same day ) then Arc was the plan. Fabre said Musis Amica wont be running if anyone was thinking of that one. Can’t remember the rest
It looks like being a cracker this year.
Ginge, Sea of Class will get more than 3lb from Crystal Ocean. She will have to carry 8-9 whilst he will have to carry 9-5
Realise that, Bobby. I made the distinction with the sex allowance because that can be added to her Timeform Master Rating. Where as the Timeform Master Rating already takes in to account the age gap. (Although it’s true Timeform’s age-weight scale is not exactly the same as the official).
Value Is EverythingSlightly off topic, but it involves Sea Of Class- follow a guy on twitter called Stopwatch Racing- he posted a view that caused some debate regarding her Yorkshire Oaks win.
He put out a podcast on this as well.
Basically he thinks Coronet would’ve won the Oaks, if the race was ran at a stronger pace throughout, as she is a stayer. He thinks that Sea of Class had the race to suit, as it was slowly run, and suited to a horse with a “push-button” turn of foot. He thinks a stronger run race wouldn’t have suited her run style.
He says:
She’s had 5 starts, with Finishing-Speed% in each of: 105%(approx) today
108.6%
105.4%
113.7%
102.1% (beaten on debut)It’s worth a look on his twitter, or a listen on his 9min podcast..
Any thoughts? I personally think he’s slightly jumping the gun, as she’s vastly unexposed and whilst there’s no evidence on hand to suggest he’s wrong, she hasn’t run in a very strongly run race yet, so there’s not evidence to suggest he’s right either.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Stopwatch Racing – a young man (I’d say mid twenties) called Will Hoffman is, in my experience, a very good judge. He gets the odd one badly wrong, as we all do, but given the regularity of his output, I’d say he does better than most. A big plus for him is that setbacks seem to have no effect on his confidence and he’s probably mature enough to maintain that level.
He has a point – in a way – Jack; Sea Of Class was probably ideally suited by a slowish run race. There is “evidence” any horse with a fine turn of foot (speed) means a slowish pace suits her even if not getting positional advantage, at least it does in a smallish field. However, coming from the back in a big field (giving the leaders a longer rope) off slowish early fractions is a totally different scenario. Trying to make up six lengths on top class horses who are themselves quickening is asking for trouble.
I don’t know the sectionals of the Irish Oaks so may be I’m wrong, but it didn’t seem at all slowly run to me, more the opposite. May be they quickened from a long way out? Sea Of Class did it well enough there – which was at that time her best performance. So she can at least run well in a fair run race, although her turn of foot won’t be such an asset.
Speaking as someone who backed the runner-up at York (one who undoubtedly would’ve been suited by a greater test of stamina) think it’s stretching it to say Coronet would’ve won a strongly run Yorkshire Oaks. It may be just a more eye catching way of saying Sea Of Class is a bloody poor bet for the Arc: But I agree with his sentiment. Because given likely ground conditions (unproven on good-soft let alone soft), a stronger run race – bringing stamina much more in to the equation – and we don’t know if the whip can be used either… Arc is likely to be a totally different race to the Yorkshire Oaks… Therefore I’ve laid Sea Of Class.
Value Is EverythingI have laid of my Sea Of Class 25/1 shot on BF today..Enable showing up on Saturday, she will find it hard to lose, and will probably look impressive even miles off her best..
I would guess she will shorten up on the back of that?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sea of Class is a silly price now for top of the ground filly, her running style also means she could get a badly drawn and not get a clear passage. Haggas already said if it’s not on the firm side of good she won’t run.
I wouldn’t put it past JG to have Enable at aprox 80% for Saturday and then spot on for L’Arc. 5/1 might look a cracking bet come Saturday pm and an even better one late afternoon 7th October.
Enable looks the best play for the Arc. If she doesn’t win Saturday it’s game over and if she does win, she will be sliced in a year that is nowhere near as good as it first looks. Lots of chaff in the betting with doubts about them. Rather than play 4/9 Saturday it’s much better to take the suitcase down and lump the lot on the Arc at 5/1.
Sea Of Class is a nonsense bet for me at 4/1.
Enable at 5/1, to disable this bunch of pretenders.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Why would it be game over if she lost on sat steve? A filly (which generally can be trickier than a colt) coming off a year break, running against a horse rated 129
I think she will win on sat, but it might be an over reaction to say its game over if she gets beaten, aslong as shes close shes going to generally improve, but i do agree if she hoses up against CO shes going to be about an evs shot at best
Has there been any word from Stoute about the chances of Crystal Ocean actually showing up?
Even with Enables layoff, i’d be surprised if Stoute will take her on in a G3 giving her 8pds…
She probably won’t have to get out of second gear on Saturday if he doesn’t show, and i’d say there’s a very good chance he doesn’t.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I wouldn’t expect CO to show up Saturday Jack, will head for The Curragh the following week I’d imagine, only concern there being the drop to 10f. Still seems to me he has a more to lose than gain if he takes on Enable on Saturday.
With Enable at 4/9 I am assuming Crystal Ocean is unlikely to run. If she can’t beat what’s left there is no point in going to France, as it will mean she hasn’t come back anywhere near the filly she was.
Enable beat Coronet 5 lengths in last year’s Yorkshire Oaks off level weights, Sea Of Class beat the same filly 2 and a quarter lengths in this year’s renewal but was receiving 9 lbs. That leaves Sea Of Class with an advantage on form and Enable also won an Epsom Oaks and all her other races last season in very easy fashion. Enable has been there and won it before and although it is a different racetrack this time in Longchamp, her form looks much more reassured to me.
If Crystal Ocean does run, she has a tougher task ahead on Saturday but should he be there and get beaten by the Nataniel filly, surely her case becomes a whole lot more solid.
In theory Enable could lose narrowly on Saturday to the Stoute horse and avenge it in October but I feel that’s an unlikely scenario and to my mind it’s Monte Carlo or Bust on Saturday. I find the notion of Sea Of Class being shorter for the Arc to be bizarre. The Haggas filly has so much more to prove in a year where her peers have been playing musical chairs around the “Bosses Seat” up until very recently.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.