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Spot on Ham, Frankie can now have his ride in the Champion, as well as the ride on Lah Ti Dar at Ascot, after successfully have that one re-routed from the Vermeille and a possibly crack at the Arc.
Anyone know the financial cost of letting cracksman in til the last minute?
my 1000/1 bet on Nelson looks good
SHL
I’m leaving for Paris very early tomorrow morning so I’m going to say it now.
Enable – she’s going to do it from stall 6.
Enable 11/10 (Paddy Power)
I put him up last week in the ante post thread, because I was pretty sure he would run. I don’t
for a minute think he will win, Enable will be up to the task, but I think there is a fair chance
that Way To Paris could sneak into the places. I’ve watched quite a few of his races, and he always, or generally, finishes well. He was a running on 1 1/2L 2nd to Waldgeist in May over C/D
and he finished really strongly when 3rd, again behind Waldgeist over 12f at Chantilly a month later.
He met Waldgeist again last month in the Prix Foy, and although he managed to get himself a bit behind
early on, and looked a bit tapped for toe mid race, he flew again and was finishing best and although he
was never going to catch Walgeist I reckon he would have finished 2nd, rather than 4th, in another couple
of strides. I’m not daft, it is speculative, but I think there’s enough form to suggest he could finish
well and get that 4th place with Skybet at 100/1, or 150/1 3 places elsewhere if you
are feeling brave enough. He’s drawn 10 which is okay, slightly better than Waldgeist, drawn 13, who’s
trading at 7s. Worth an e/w pop I reckon
Edit 06/10…..Betvictor went 150/1 4 places, so I’ve had some of that too. I see they have since dropped it to 125/1,
certainly nothing to do with my meager puntGosden is just playing the percentages, like Aidan O’Brien does, like Stoutey does, like Mullins, Elliott, Henderson and all do. Nothing wrong with that.
Once he got beaten in the Prince Of Wales: If stable companion Enable got to the race fit and well… And the going looked as if it’ll be genuinely on the firm side of good (French can’t tell the truth in going reports if they tried)… And Cracksman’s next run being his last before stallion duties… With a fair probability (I wouldn’t put it any stronger than that) of needing give in the ground to show his very best. Liklihood of an advantageous surface on October 20th. Good record at the Berkshire course/that time of year… And significant possibility (particularly if the Arc is run on a firmish surface) of ruinning his chance of Ascot glory if running in Paris… Plus a fair chance of stable companion and current Champion favourite Roaring Lion either missing Ascot completely on soft ground or re-routing to the QEII.
Yes, we’d all like the horse to run on Sunday. But With the above all (probably) coming to fruition – come off it lads – it was always very probable Cracksman would miss the Arc. In fact imo it’s a no brainer.
Value Is EverythingIt wasnt a no brainer. late price changes alone suggested otherwise.
Agree completely with your logic and if we were in Gosdens position, its the correct course of action. However, if I were in oppenheimers shoes, it could be a different story. Thats why im curious as to the financial implications.
Not looking like a vintage arc
SHL
As soon as Enable won at Kempton, as long as she came out of the race well, it became more probable that Cracksman would miss this. It became more likely as the rained stayed away.
If Enable had encountered another setback Cracksman would have run Sunday, firm ground or not.
Jack – how can you know if you don’t run? He literally hasn’t raced for months. So what if he gets beat? At least try! Anyone who has been on this forum for a while knows how much I admire JG but I’m afraid I find this completely unsporting and very disappointing.
They didn’t run last year, they had the winner….and the winner of the CS?
Fair to say he has half a clue?
I seem to remember last year there were murmurs that they wanted Frankie and were happy to wait a year….
If he goes and wins another CS isn’t that good training? For me it is. People moan year in year out about Mullins and Gosden is in that position now…..they are there for a reason lads….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Will be interesting to watch the racing from Longchamp tomorrow as the ground is listed as good to soft currently – yes Gosden’s job is to win the most amount of prize money for his owners but to me AO has bottled it twice now with some weak a** excuse that is totally unproven with any facts.
Ascot is listed as good and the first two times are around 1sec slower than standard but the 3rd race they dipped under standard, there is rain predicted Sat/Sun & Thurs but sunny for the rest of the days.
Unless the English whether does a 180, I doubt Cracksman will get anywhere near the same conditions as last year and if it is decent ground you would have to imagine RL would have to much basic speed for him – but then again Gosden has mentioned the QE2 is not off the table for him so who the hell knows what will happen.
Johny G is a good trainer but he is bit pensive. He has a massive fear of losing and just before any big event, his horses gets withdrawn for some strange reasons.
Enable – Was out almost all summer. Returned only into Group 2 in all weather where she was certain to win. Why didn’t he let her race in Juddmonte internationals?
Cracksman – As many have already mentioned, his planning was baffling. What do you mean by, he can only run if there is a cut in the ground? Yes he lost in Ascot, but against whom? The 2nd best horse in the world. No shame in it. But Gosden decided to not let Cracksman run in King George and now in the Arc.
Lah ti Dar – Just before the oaks when everyone was looking forward to see her run, she gets injured. Could have taken on Sea of Class at York Oaks? But no, Gosden decided to run her in a group 2 on return and then let her take a grueling test against boys in the ledger.
Calyx – A wonderful horse and was looking forward to see so much from him in Middle Park, Dewhurst etc. But miraculously gets injured and wont run this year.
The amount of good horses Gosden had, he could have achieved so much more. But for that, he needs to let his horses run often.
Austin
Enable: easily could’ve been retired last year after a setback- kept in training and always said to be trained for ARC….preps are preps—-remember, a G2 vs Crystal Ocean who finished 2nd in a head bobber to the “second best in the world”. Why didnt he pull her out? It’s a prep.
Cracksman- regardless of what you say Cracksman hasn’t been the same horse this year, ground, attitude whatever. A little confused by all the forum chat about him tbh.
Lah Ti Dar + Calyx- won’t even bother….you are trying to claim a trainer can rule horses out injured when they are not….does he lock them up in the yard and not let the big owners see them? Their vets?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Johny G is a good trainer
Gosden is a bloody good trainer, Austin…
From what’s said in that post, think you have a lot to learn/understand about training, how to bring a horse back from a setback or how easily those setbacks can occur.Value Is EverythingI’ll go further – JG is a BRILLIANT trainer. One of the best we’ve had. That doesn’t mean he isn’t beyond making poor decisions as he himself often admits. Look at the record with Cracksman:
Dante 2017 – horse fully fit but doesn’t run him as the ground gets soft and he worries about giving him a hard race on soft ground before the Derby. Later bemoans the horses lack of experience when narrowly beaten in 2 Derby’s.
Arc 2017 – horse fully fit but doesn’t run him despite the soft ground as he doesn’t think he is the finished article and won’t be quite so effective round Chantilly as he will be around Longchamp next year. I seem to remember him saying something about how Longchamp will be much more to his liking. (of course he HAD already won around Chantilly)
King George 2018 horse fully fit but doesn’t run him because of fast ground despite this race being one of the two chosen targets stated by trainer and owner for 2018 and the reason for him being kept in training.
Arc 2018 – horse fully fit but doesn’t run him because of good to soft ground despite this being the second chosen target stated by trainer and owner for 2018 and the reason for him being kept in training. It doesn’t matter that Longchamp will be more to his liking anymore because he won’t be able to handle those lightening quick conditions.
Honestly?
The horse should be renamed Goldilocks as everything has to be…….JUST RIGHT."this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Arc 2018 – horse fully fit but doesn’t run him because of good to soft ground despite this being the second chosen target stated by trainer and owner for 2018 and the reason for him being kept in training. It doesn’t matter that Longchamp will be more to his liking anymore because he won’t be able to handle those lightening quick conditions.
Also conveniently forgetting that he actually won the Ganay at Longchamp on ground described as good in a time almost 1 sec faster than standard. I really don’t see that the ground on Sunday will be any faster than it was on that day.
I could understand not wanting to run on good to firm if the only time he ever ran on it he ran a stinker and was hanging and changing his legs every few strides but that clearly wasn’t the case and Gosden even said the following day that he was in fine (don;t forget he still finished 8L ahead of a multiple G1 & G2 winner, not bad for a horse that apparently didn’t act on the ground). And please don’t get me started on AO’s comments about saying he will run at Ascot even if it is good to firm because its his last race!
I am a huge fan of Gosden and for the most part he gets it right when it matters and I especially appreciate when he explains things regarding his horses (and horses in general) in laymans terms when asked – the explanation about Rewilding’s fatal injury in front of the stands in the KG being a prime example. But with campaigning Cracksman, I just don’t think he has been given the best chance to show what he is capable of and that to me is a shame.
Yes, the horse has run “well” on good-firm before. But although it is possible Cracksman would be equally effective on good-firm, by far his career best performance to date was at Ascot in late October on soft ground. So there’s a probability he’s best on soft ground. Yes, Cracksman won the Ganay on Good ground, but the point you’re failing to grasp is the performance was in no way comparable to the one put up in last year’s soft ground Champion Stakes (which was on Timeform performance ratings a full stone superior)… And connections know that if Cracksman is to beat an on song Enable (knowing her ability as they do) he had to be at his very best.
It therefore makes perfect sense to have his last race before stallion duties if at all possible on soft ground. Ground conditions at Ascot in late October will probably be more advantageous to Cracksman than Longchamp will be on Sunday… But also – the probability is there will not be a horse of Enable’s ability turning up at Ascot. It is therefore possible Cracksman could win the Champion Stakes without being anywhere near his very best. ie Even on good-firm it’s possible Cracksman could win the Champion Stakes.
Value Is Everything
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