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I had a good win on Eagle Nebula at Wolves tonight. Was thinking of having the whole lot on this lad.
Opinions?
Stats are very much against horses carrying a penalty.
Though he is a decent yardstick, he doesn’t look to be crying out for a drop in trip. Just a suspicion he is a good early juvenile who may prove difficult to place.
Race preview courtesy of Sporting Life site:-
Doncaster 13:25 Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)
Lilbourne Lad drops to the minimum trip for the first time since scoring on his debut but his latest second in the Gimcrack, just ahead of Burwaaz, was another sound effort. He had Requinto well behind when successful at Naas in June, though carries a penalty here for his win at the Curragh next time. Fillies have won three out of the last four runnings of this, however, and the fairer sex can come out on top again this year via MY PROPELLER. On the form book, Peter Chapple-Hyam’s daughter of Holy Roman Emperor has a few pounds to find with some of these but she’s always been held in high regard and had plenty in hand when winning a Listed contest over this trip at York last month when Vocational was only fifth. Angels Will Fall is better than she showed in the Lowther, though does have to reverse that running here with the maiden Caledonia Lady.
For me, Lilbourne Lad isn’t especially progressive, and being a bit of a speed-figure fan, isn’t very fast in the context of this race.
His racing suggests that 6f or maybe a little further is going to be ideal, and from front running in the early part of the season, he has been struggling to get free in front recently as he’s stepped up in class and as the season has gone on. It’s worth noting he’s quite an early (early March) horse…
Personally speaking, in a field of this quality over this trip, he’d be one of the first I would strike through, particularly as I think he might struggle to keep up if a decent pace is set, but obviously that’s just me… I certainly wouldn’t describe the likely 11/2-ish odds as offering value though…
My propeller 11/2 SJ ew 1/5 1,2,3 or 5/1 B365 1/4 1,2,3 I think is the bet here.
I also had eagle tonight at 6/1 with SJ but only to a few quid so have played this up on my propeller with a small saver on kohala which I think is also overpriced at 10/1
yorkiedips
- Total Posts 17716
He’s a 6 furlong horse through and through, and I wouldn’t back him in this with someone else’s money.
Trainer says"He’s not short of speed"
, but that’s not what Pat Dobbs said, when he struggled to win over c/d on his debut.
Edited to add:
Robert Winston once described Angels Will Fall as "probably the best 5 furlong filly in the country", and a win and place bet @ 5/1 should be a much safer vehicle for any sizeable investment.If you look at my complete speed ratings for this race, Lilbourne lad should not make the first 3.
Requinto
26-Jul-11 Goo 5Gd C12yG3 22K
93
Burwaaz 26-Jul-11 Goo 5Gd C12yG3 22K
89
Caledonia Lady 15-Jun-11 Asc 5Gd C12yG2 42K
87
Kohala 12-Aug-11 Nby 5Gd C12yL 12K
84
My Propeller 20-Aug-11 Yor 5Gd C12yL 14K
83
On The Dark Side 26-Jul-11 Goo 5Gd C12yG3 22K
82
Vocational 26-Jul-11 Goo 5Gd C12yG3 22K
82
Requinto
09-Jul-11 Tip 5Y 2yL 23K
81
Kohala 15-Jun-11 Asc 5Gd C12yG2 42K
80
My Propeller 19-Jun-11 Pon 6Gd C52yMd 3K
79
Caledonia Lady 18-Aug-11 Yor 6GS C12yG2 61K
78
Burwaaz 16-Jun-11 Asc 5GS C12yG2 42K
78
Miss Lahar 12-Aug-11 Nby 5Gd C12yL 12K
78
Requinto
23-Apr-11 Cor 5Gd 2y 11K
77
Caledonia Lady 08-Jul-11 Nmk 6Gd C12yG2 34K
76
Vocational 03-Sep-11 Kem 6St C12yG3 19K
75
Lilbourne Lad 06-Jun-11 Naa 6GF 2yL 33K
75
Vocational 15-Jun-11 Asc 5Gd C12yG2 42K
74
Vocational 13-May-11 Yor 5GF C12yL 17K
74
Lilbourne Lad 14-May-11 Nmk 6GF C42yNv 4K
73
Angels Will Fall 18-Aug-11 Yor 6GS C12yG2 61K
71
Vocational 08-Jul-11 Chs 5GS C22y 8K
70
My Propeller 08-Jul-11 Nmk 6Gd C12yG2 34K
70
Lilbourne Lad 19-Aug-11 Yor 6GS C12yG2 82K
70
Lilbourne Lad 26-Jun-11 Cur 6Gd 2yG2 49K
70
Angels Will Fall 23-Jul-11 Asc 6GS C12yG3 28K
70
On The Dark Side 15-Jun-11 Asc 5Gd C12yG2 42K
69
Requinto 19-Aug-11 Yor 5GS C1G1 156K
68
Vocational 25-May-11 Bev 5GF C22y 13K
68
Lilbourne Lad 07-Aug-11 Cur 6Gd/Y 2yG1 95K
67
Burwaaz 19-Aug-11 Yor 6GS C12yG2 82K
66
On The Dark Side 12-Aug-11 Nby 5Gd C12yL 12K
66
On The Dark Side 04-Jun-11 Eps 6GF C12yL 14K
65
Miss Lahar 04-Aug-11 Chp 5GS C52yMd 2K
63
Miss Lahar 23-Jul-11 Asc 6GS C12yG3 28K
63
Vocational 20-Aug-11 Yor 5Gd C12yL 14K
62
Kohala 01-Jul-11 San 5Gd C12yL 12K
62
Kohala 30-May-11 Red 5GF C52yMdAc 2K
61
Requinto 10-Apr-11 Leo 6GF 2y 10K
60
Burwaaz 17-May-11 Not 6GF C52yMd 3K
60
Angels Will Fall 09-May-11 Wdr 5Gd C42yMd 3K
59
Vocational 02-May-11 War 5GF C52yMd 3K
56
Miss Lahar 16-May-11 Wdr 5GF C52yMd 3K
56
Lilbourne Lad 16-Apr-11 Don 5GF C42yMd 3K
56
Caledonia Lady 31-May-11 Lei 5Gd C42yMd 4K
55
Requinto 06-Jun-11 Naa 6GF 2yL 33K
54
Burwaaz 30-May-11 Lei 5Gd C62yMd 1K
54
Caledonia Lady 09-Aug-11 Ffo 6GF C42yMd 4K
51
Burwaaz 07-Jul-11 Nmk 6Gd C32y 7K
51
On The Dark Side 29-Aug-11 Rip 6GS C12yL 15K
48
Kohala 14-May-11 Don 5Gd C52yMdAc 3K
47
On The Dark Side 16-Jul-11 Nby 5Gd C22y 98K
40
Miss Lahar 03-Jun-11 Bat 6GF C52yMd 3K
39
On The Dark Side 20-May-11 Cat 5GF C52yMd 3K
37
My Propeller 27-May-11 Nmk 6Gd C42yMd 4K
37
Miss Lahar 11-Jul-11 Wdr 6GF C52yMd 2K
37
- Total Posts 17716
i stayed out of it, but… (see other thread)
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