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Quote: from jackane24 on 2:14 pm on Oct. 4, 2006[br]I love Detroit City to bits, but he will not win the Champion Hurdle. He wants way further – he got outpaced at Cheltenham which is why he was hard off the bridle about a mile out.
He was also a novice last year – previous year novices need 2 seasons to step-up.
My current picks would be BJK, who like HE, can use his brilliance to overcome his inexperience.
Jackane, I fail to see how you can rule out Detroit City on the basis that he will be a second season novice who wants further and then pick Black Jack Ketchum out of the hat as a potential winner (yep you guessed it, a second season novice who wants further)? BJK, bloody good horse that he is, won his top races over three miles or further last season.
No no no no no – BJK I have picked as my World Hurdle pick.
As for previous season novices……
Champion Hurdle – 3 of last 10 winners previous season novices
Champion Chase – 5 of last 10 winners previous season novices (azertyuiop was very lucky that moscow unseated, coupled with several defections + old horses last year)
World Hurdle – 6 of last 10 winners previous season novices
Gold Cup – 5 of last 10 winners previous season novices
Which means 19 of the last 40 big race winners at Cheltenham was a past season novice – just less than half. Completely avoid them in the Champion Hurdle, but they have a good record in the Stayers’ race, but I’d still be sceptical of them in either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup.
Oh, and as for Detroit City – since 1985, 68 5yos have tried in the Champion Hurdle and failed. Not to mention he is a Triumph winner, a race from which very few decent hurdlers have come out of, and even decent chasers to come out of it are rare.
I do however believe he is the real deal, although I would skip Cheltenham with him and send him to either the Aintree Hurdle or the Stayers race at Aintree, where a fresh, fit young horse would have the edge over a possibly-tired-after-Cheltenham older horse.
5yos often struggle at Cheltenham with the big races, but if I were to set a target with him, it would probably be the Coral Cup, where although he would almost certainly have to carry 11-12, Sky’s The Limit (??) did it this year for Barry Geraughty as a 5yo.
Quote: from Happy Jack on 8:54 pm on Oct. 4, 2006[br]
<br>I would advise you, not that it will really make much difference, to just try and do a tiny bit of research before you come up with such laughable statements.<br>
Right back at ya Happy Jack – ‘our’ research shows that I am just about right. Funny how I don’t expect an apology……….still haven’t had an apology about Proclamation……;)……….Also quite funny how now, about 2 weeks after I posted an article about Godolphin which many disagreed with, people are starting loads of topics, yup, you’ve guessed it, agreeing with me :D
People seem to think they can walk over me on here, but I won’t stand for it. If people want to disagree with me, that’s fine, but I don’t post messages so people can rip me to shreds.
I have been very unfairly targetted recently (give a dog a bad name….), and it ain’t on.
I have had a few bets all over the place for an early interest. I have bet Racing Demon, Denman and Missed That for the Gold cup. For the Champion Hurdle i have bet Harchibald and Sweet Wake and the Champion Chase i have bet Ashley Brook.
At Cashmans i have had an interest bet on Kicks for Free in the Supreme Novice and Leading Run and My Condor in the Sun Alliance Hurdle. I also have bet Conna Castle in the Arkle. I wish i could lay there quote of Cuan Na Grai at 6/1 fav for the supreme novice as he has already had a a hard season and i think he’ll fall short of top novice class.
Gold Cup-War Of Attrition,Kicking King,Monets Garden,Missed That,Kill Devil Hill, In Compliance and Justified,Hedge Hunter….<br>Champion Hurdle Hardy,Brave Inca,Asian Maze, Detroin City,Macs Joy,Feathered Lady….<br>Champion Chase Well Chief,Voy Pur Estedes,Kauto Star,Rathgar Beau, Newmill
Surely all of these have a massive chance so where would we be going trying to spot value.???
Justified for the gold cup is my fancy….<br>So let the slating begin
- Total Posts 438
A small, but significant, point: could everyone use the term "second season novice" correctly, please?
A second season novice is a horse who has spent one season in novice events and failed to win, so is back for a second crack the following year. Philip Hobbs’ promising hurdler Massini’s Maguire is an example: he ran three times last winter without winning and, if he is campaigned over hurdles this term, he will be a second season novice.
A second season novice is not a horse having his first season out of exclusively novice company.
:cool:
Jackane
I am not going to argue, or indeed give an apology when one is certainly not required. I was merely pulling you up on your sweeping statement that "previous year novices need 2 seasons to step-up" (and especially the fact that you could only think of two examples when in fact there are dozens) as it is clearly not true. To say "I’m right" and simply point out that "only" 19 of the last 40 Championship race winners have been second season hurdlers/chasers doesn’t wash I’m afraid. Do you actually know how many such horses have lined up for the races? <br>Champion Chase – second season chasers 50% of wins from 35% of runners.<br>Gold Cup – second season chasers 50% of wins from 37% of runners<br>World Hurdle – second season hurdlers 60% of wins from 27% of runners
The only race in which second season hurdlers have generally struggled is the Champion Hurdle but I would suggest, as Hopper mentioned, that the figures are skewed by Istabraq’s dominance.
I’m not here particularly to have a go at you as you are clearly very enthusiastic about the game which can only be a good thing, but you can’t not expect your posts to be "ripped to shreds" when your facts are not correct.
For what it’s worth, I agree about Detroit City, but then again, the world and his wife knows about the 5yo Champion Hurdle statistic
Macs Joy will beat them anyway.. I think races like the Arkle and RSA are not really to be punted on at the moment as we have no idea whether any of last seasons hurdlers will actually be able to jump fences.. I am looking forward to seeing Noland over fences though.
Straw Bear is an interesting one for the champion this year… I thought he should have won at cheltenham and probably just went too soon. Subsequently showed at Aintree what he’s all about. He’s an interesting outsider and must have improvement in him and the CH should be his target for the year.
Happy Jack, i see your point about the previous season novices, but the stats do speak for themselves. But I don’t see why I should be ripped apart because I could only remember 2 names, when we’ve just had 6 months of flat which has completely taken over my brain! :cheesy:
As for the Istabraq thing – well this applies into all races. Best Mate won 3 in a row, Hardy Eustace 2, Baracouda 2, Moscow Flyer won 2 in 3 years – it happens. But I do understand what you are getting at.
I would be very suprised if none of last year’s champions managed to repeat their victory – I would say the most likely to do this would be Newmill, but if Ashley Brook were to run in the CC, then I would switch my choice to Brave Inca.
The only race in which second season hurdlers have generally struggled is the Champion Hurdle but I would suggest, as Hopper mentioned, that the figures are skewed by Istabraq’s dominance.
and even then, does that matter?
Is there any reason why a "second season" should "struggle" in this race? Without a logical explanation stats like this are completely irrelevant to me
Trends can just happen without there being any conclusions to be drawn from them…
Zorro said elsewhere that innocence can always be forgiven.
Not when it’s combined with both profound ignorance and profound arrogance, IMO.
Wild Passion for the Gold Cup. It’s all in the stat’s, the past three Gold Cup runners had finished runner-up in the Supreme Novices – lump on :biggrin:
For what its worth, these are the bets I have on already:
Gold Cup
2pts Star De Mohaison @ 50/1<br>2pts Racing Demon @ 33/1<br>2pts ew Trabolgan @ 14/1<br>2pts Monets Garden @ 20/1
I’m very hopeful i’ve got the winner :lol:
Champion Chase
2pts ew Voy Por Ustedes @ 14/1
World Hurdle
4pts Inglis Drever @ 12/1 (I think)
You picked and backed four horses if ya dont get a winner from four you will never get one…..<br>Throw enough s**t
at the wall and some will stick
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