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What do you all think is a fair price now on Kauto Star? If all goes well will he not go off Evens on the day?
I guess another way of wording this is "is there any value at current prices"
Hello to all.
I find Newmill reasonably interesting. A champion chaser over two miles he was hugely impressive winning the Grade 1 two milers at Cheltenam and Punchestown last year on Good ground. Also Grade 2 winner over 2 mile hurdles, and interestingly is a Grade 2 winner over fences over 2m 5f (heavy).
This horse is undoubtably classy, versatile, loves the normal Good Cheltenam ground, and his trainer has committed to trying the staying chase route this season, for now at least.
Not an obvious contender i grant you, and possibly too old on trends, but i feel he is unusually versatile and at prices around 230/1 there are worse speculative punts available.
I am seriously thinking of getting on My Way de solzen, although i seem to have missed the 10’s. I can see him running really well at kempton and the price contracting quickly after that
Kauto is the best chaser since Dessie but i thought his jumping at aintree was possibly even less impressive than before.
As for MWDS, his jumping is superb, hes in great hands and i believe that as one who could handle testing 3m hurdles just fine, he will stay
Im quite excited about My Way going in the Gold Cup.
I absolutely love the horse, his jumping is absolutely brilliant and has a decent turn of pace too.
Hello to all.
I find Newmill reasonably interesting. A champion chaser over two miles he was hugely impressive winning the Grade 1 two milers at Cheltenam and Punchestown last year on Good ground. Also Grade 2 winner over 2 mile hurdles, and interestingly is a Grade 2 winner over fences over 2m 5f (heavy).
This horse is undoubtably classy, versatile, loves the normal Good Cheltenam ground, and his trainer has committed to trying the staying chase route this season, for now at least.
Not an obvious contender i grant you, and possibly too old on trends, but i feel he is unusually versatile and at prices around 230/1 there are worse speculative punts available.
Welcome to the forum chief – I may be wrong but I thought they were considering the staying hurdle route rather than chases? I could be wrong but thought I read that in the post recently because I had a look at him on the AP market for the world hurdle (Which I think he would have a better chance in I believe).
Cheers. I may be wrong also, time will tell i suppose. 1st entry is a G1 hurdle but they do chop and change obstacles, connections of this horse. Seems a little odd to me to revert a champion chaser back to timber permanantly, possibly even unprecedented?
With Kauto Star now a proper stayer, Well Cheif having questions to answer , and the (IMO wrong) decision to make the Rynair a Grade 1, i feel the 2m chase will be diluted and a softer target than ever before. (apologies, i digress!)
the (IMO wrong) decision to make the Rynair a Grade 1, i feel the 2m chase will be diluted and a softer target than ever before.
That could cut both ways – there has to be some chance that connections of horses thought, or proven, incapable of staying 3m2.5f at Championship pace will pay greater attention to this contest now, in addition to those connections of horses outpaced over the Champion Chase’s 2m.
Time will show whether the Ryanair’s intermediate distance acts to complement the other two Championship contests, or starts to bleed them of numbers.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Seems a little odd to me to revert a champion chaser back to timber permanantly, possibly even unprecedented?
Hi PC and welcome to TRF from another relative noob.
I tried to think of another champion chaser who went back to hurdling. I think that there probably are a few but one that comes to mind for me is 78 Gold Cup winner Midnight Court.
from memory I think he missed some time after the race and when he returned it was mostly as a long distance hurdler. I think he won the Long Walk at Ascot, so he had some success at it. He may have had a couple more Chases as well but he was mostly a hurdler after his absence.Fair point, but i having a look at the previous winners (Taranis, Fondmort, Thisthatandtother), these horses were not Grade 1 Cheltenam horses in my opinion, although all three admirable.
– Taranis may well have improved, but was cetainly not a Grade 1 horse prior to winning the Rynair last season.
Thisthatandtother / Fondmort – Admirable stalwarts, but both came up short every time wither ran in a Grade 1 chase.
I can’t see the logic in upgrading the Rynair to a Grade 1, i see a dilution similar to the way the introduction of the Brit Insurance Novice hurdle cost us a (at the time expected, obviously Nicanor would have spoiled the party regardless) RSA hurdle Denman versus Black Jack Ketchum duel last year.
Or will the upgrading simply attract a better stamp of horse, thus diluting the GC or CC? Either way i can’t see a benefit.
I was told years ago that, because Cheltenham is all championship races to avoid horses a bit wishy washy [good technical term that] about their preferred distance [Kauto Star being the exception recently]. I’m looking at ew ante post bets on Neptune Collonges and Turpin Green [although not sure what he’s up to at the moment]. I wouldn’t dare put serious money on horses that throw in the odd bad jump….[serious money to me being more than £5]….
Surely horses like Fondmort and Thisthatandtother and Native Upmanship were Grade1 class at 2m 4f. Just because they were not good enough to win Gr1s at 2m or 3m doesn’t mean they were not Grade 1 animals.
I see your point, but why no G1 wins over 2m4f for Fondmort or Thisthatandtother?
I think if the Rynair was G1 last season Exotic Dancer might well have ran in the race, and probably won, which would have robbed the GC of some of its interest.
First of all, Peruvian Chief, welcome to the forum!
I think if the Rynair was G1 last season Exotic Dancer might well have ran in the race, and probably won, which would have robbed the GC of some of its interest.
Afraid I can’t agree with that. ED had been second in the King George and won the Pillar, not going to the Gold Cup would have been a woeful decision.
Personally, I don’t see the Ryanair’s regrading making an awful lot of difference. It’s still the Ryanair, and the GC and Champion Chase are still the races with more history and prestige. The Ryanair is still custom-made for the Taranis and Our Vic’s of this world, but connections will still send their horses to one of the extreme trips if they feel there is even a half chance of it suiting IMO.only meant distance as a criteria for ante post betting, really wish there had been a 2 1/2 mile race for Native Upmanship because he really deserved to be recognized as a champion over that distance – I’ve had so many bets where people have said if he settles he’ll stay etc.
Each to their own – just think increasing amount of Grade 1’s cannot really be a good thing, eg champion staying novice hurdler will now never be decided for sure at Cheltenam. Surely cannot be a good thing long term.
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