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It amazes me why bookmakers come up with prices for races that are a year away as is the case after most races at Cheltenham. Does anyone take these prices seriously and how far in advance of a race has anyone had a bet.
I was on a panel with Irish bookmaker Ronan Graham last Sunday and when we talked about the Gold Cup, he emphasised that his firm were in the happy position of having laid Denman at even money immediately after his win last year. They had also laid Kauto Star at shorter than his likely SP after his King George win.
So it certainly does happen.
If a price is wrong it’s wrong however far in advance it’s priced up.
I’ve already backed a couple for Cheltenham next year (both have shortened since).
There was a discussion on the following years derby i think it was January 06 for the 07 Derby. I quicky scrolled through the breeding and one stood out. I rushed off to the bookies to have a token bet, just in case
. WH couldn’t give me a price and Ladbrokes offered 50/1 !! As it was for fun i took the odds!!! i am not sure if the horse has ever won a raceRock Of Gibraltar (IRE) (8.9f) — Imagine (IRE) (Sadler´s Wells (USA) (11.3f))
Red Rock Canyon still a maiden.
agree its hard to know 12 months in advance
i was lucky last year and backed Kauto Star at 7/1 after Denmans win because of ladbrokes price was 3 points above the others and thought that at least he would run again the following year.
but this was a rare judgement issue on by me,usually i would wait nearer the race.It amazes me why bookmakers come up with prices for races that are a year away as is the case after most races at Cheltenham. Does anyone take these prices seriously and how far in advance of a race has anyone had a bet.
Yep myself and fists took post cheltenham antepost prices on binocular for the champ hurdle last year, because we thought he’d shorten after aintree. It depends on whether you do anteposts really, if you do and you see an antepost bet that looks like it should be something good then you dont really worry abotu how long it will take to come in, although a year is about as long as I’d wait.
My mate used to put 200-500 quid bets on short priced priced (5/4 and 6/4) premiership league winner bets, now that always seemed beyond me. A couple of quid on like a 20-1 shot is about the height of it with me. Backed teofilo for the 2007 at 25s about 10 months before the race and then authorized from november 06 on at 10-12s.
I think some people genuinely dont tend to worry about what wins next year until close to the time, but most of the time I get more excited about anteposters than week in, week out bets, however I think I do better with the regular week in week out bets than anteposters.
If you think a horse is value then back it, whenever the price is right.
I had three ante-post bets a full year before this Cheltenham. 59/1 Crack Away Jack and 16/1 Celestial Halo, 29/1 and 24/1 Neptunes Collonges.
The only one I’ve taken this time around is 14/1 Cooldine which is now down to 10/1 best price. However, it is not quite the brilliant value I thought it was wednesday, as Kauto certainly stays the trip and Denman is on his way back.
Although they did not win they were good value, get value and profit will follow.
I had 6 ante-post 2nds at Cheltenham. Most taken about a month ago.
More than made up for by 2 winners. Cooldine and Imperial Commander 6/1 and 10/1. Only a small Notre Pere 40/1and Chomba Womba (very small Champion Hurdle bet at 89/1) did not run out of all my ante-post bets.It is essential to back sound horses.
Mark
Value Is EverythingSurely the advent of Betfair (and other exchanges) has altered the thinking on this. I’d never have backed horses really early ante-post but the knowledge that a contracting price allows you to lay off these days is more intriguing. Certainly when I backed North Light at a huge price for the Derby I did so knowing that I could lay off after his run in the Dante.
I can remember you asking the guys if anyone thought 23/1 was a good price for Neptune Collonges after the Gold Cup Ginge.
I also remember you telling everyone he wasn’t in the same class as Kauto Star.
Kauto was 7/1 at the time but you never backed him which confused the hell out of me.
Mind you getting the price you did could have made you peny had you laid it off so it wasn’t a daft move in any way.
I never really started having big AP bets until I came on here. I had a few but nothing like the ones I have had in the last 12 months.
This forum helps me work things out better and put a lot more thought about it.
The likes of Kauto Star 7/1 and 5/1 and Binocular 25/1 down to 8s and Master Minded 6/4 stood out like a sore thumb to me.
The way I looked at it is surely all 3 can’t go wrong before next year.
Master Minded was easy. If he turned up he would win. If he put in another performace like he did in the QMCC he would be 1/6…..or at least he should have been.
After the Gold Cup and listening to Ruby I thought 7/1 was an amazing price. He might not beat Denman but he surely must get placed. The more I discussed the race on here the more confident I was that he would bounce back so I backed him again at 5’s
Binocular had run such a good race in the Supreme after Nicky Henderson had been messed about rotten by FB and JP I thought he must have some sort of chance in theis years Champion Hurdle. When I looked and saw 25/1 I couldn’t believe it and jumped on. The next day he was still 22/1 and gain I backed him. I think partially through rage to be honest. He was still 20’s and 16’s for a while so I bet him again and again and again then Aintree he dropped like a stone to 8s.
All the time I was calculating what would happen if one didn’t make it what would happen if MM won but Binny and Kauto got placed etc.
So really I hadn’t put all my eggs in one basket and the risk wasn’t that great.
I think if you just lump on one horse AP you are asking for trouble and betting 3 or even 4 your risk is far far less.
I’ve alreay had a few bets on MM in doubles with Kauto Star (King George)and Binocular which are somewhat dodgy but after two won and Binny was placed I can well afford the gamble. I also backed Kauto at 2/1 and again with MM .
I have no idea what price KS is now for the KG but he sure as hell isn’t 2/1
I was swithering on backing 5/2 Kauto for the GC again but Denman was a helluva price at 8’s so I backed Kauto to win back my stakes and lumped on Denman EW.
The way I look at it is If they both turn up well and the ground is not too soft Kauto will win. If it turns out tacky or very soft it might just take the sting out of his tail and Denamn could just win it back. Even though I doubt it I think it’s a bet to nothing. Denman has already been taken off the boards and the best now is 6’s
I can’t see one of them not winning next season. The only horse who could possibly beat them is Cooldine. He’ll have to improve to some tune though.
Also had a bit on Katchit at 40.s ew which I won’t go into.
I am constantly on the search for value but only if I think the horse is a very good animal and over priced.
I will probably have a bet on Binoclar again but I want to find if Hurrcane Fly is going to run first possibly at Aintree. If he does and wins and Binocular doesn’t run anywhwere he could drift. Then I would back him heavily EW.
We all have our methods and mines came off for me big time. For sure it would been a lot better had Binocular had won but I’m not complaining.
I think some opportunities are too good to be missed and bookies make a lot of mistakes.
So yes Mr Starter of the Thread some of us do take on these prices
. WH couldn’t give me a price and Ladbrokes offered 50/1 !! As it was for fun i took the odds!!! i am not sure if the horse has ever won a race
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