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Well done to isinglass.
None of the horses (except Kris Kin) were originally entered for the races in question. They were all supplemented in the week before the contest.
Kris Kin was entered in the Derby as a yearling but was subsequently taken out following a poor debut as a 2-y-o. Then he won the Dee Stakes at 3, so connections put him back in the race at a cost of £90,000.
Imagine the nerves of a trainer “at the off” after persuading an owner to pay up the huge sums of money involved in supplementary fees.
However, those examples would pay off handsomely – is there a system to follow staring us in the face ??
Have no suitably testing question to hand so please someone, take my turn.
Cheers again Seasider
I.Well done Isinglass, and another cracking question from Seasider.
On a potential system, I posted this question some time ago; I think the secret would be in finding out who prompts the supplementary. If it’s the trainer, then that is the strongest of hints as he’s putting his judgement at risk as well as his owner’s cash and his horse’s reputation. I believe Beckett put Simple Verse forward, and Gosden did the same with GH.
Anyway, I do have a question, and since there’s little chance of me ever answering one correctly, I’ll take up your offer, Isinglass:
Which horse finished a beaten favourite in the Champion Hurdle and went on to win that year’s Arc de Triomphe?
steeplechasing, would that be Le Paillon, who was a runner up to National Spirit in the 1955 Champ Hurdle?
Le Paillons dam Blue Bear was a very good hurdler in France, where she won Grande Course de Haies (French Champion Hurdle), among her offspring besides the 7 time hurdle winner and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hero Le Paillon (Fastnet), there was two French Group 3 winning fillies,.Best Wishes
SilkMichael Stoute certainly advised Kris Kin’s owner Saeed Suhail to supplement the horse in 2003. On the other hand Stoute must also have advised SS to take Kris Kin out of the race 8 months earlier. Advice is a variable feast.
Two other horses, in the shape of Norse Dancer & Dutch Gold, were also supplemented in 2003. I don’t have the prize money breakdown for that year but I’m guessing a horse needed to finish 3rd in order to recoup the investment. Norse Dancer finished 4th (beaten 2½ lengths) so it wasn’t a complete bust for his owner. 3 x £90,000 also nicely benefited the prize fund.
In 2015 Success Days (beaten about 28 lengths) was also supplemented for the Derby. This is a soft ground horse but the ground came up good to firm on the day. I can’t help but think his owner would have saved a lot of money if he’d just looked at the 7-day weather forecast.
Last year the supplementary entry fee was £75,000. A supplemented horse would have only needed to finish 4th to get his owner’s money back, 4th prize amounting to £76,862.
On a potential system, I posted this question some time ago; I think the secret would be in finding out who prompts the supplementary. If it’s the trainer, then that is the strongest of hints as he’s putting his judgement at risk as well as his owner’s cash and his horse’s reputation. I believe Beckett put Simple Verse forward, and Gosden did the same with GH.
steeplechasing, I’m curious now. Would it be possible for you to locate the thread containing your question concerning supplemented horses and a potential system.
Here’s an article about Le Paillon written by John Randall. He doesn’t rate the horse’s flat achievements at all.
Edit: Can’t seem to get the link working. Plug ‘french champion hurdle arc le paillon’ into google. It’s the 9th link down on the first page.
On His Own for the 2014 Gold Cup was the first one I thought of, and would have won had the stewards not bottled it in the stewards enquiry.
Seasider, it was nothing more than the one-liner I mentioned earlier here speculating about the source of the idea to supplement. Unless connections tell the media, I can’t think of a way you’d find out.
Just looking at a system on supplementaries without filtering them in any way might show interesting results too. Maybe the ProForm software can do that query. Want me to ask a contact to check ProForm database?
steeplechasing, firstly I concur that filtering would add a lot of value to the basic fact of a supplementary entry but that details would be difficult, if not impossible, to obtain.
I’ve looked around for a web page that will give some consolidated information about supplemented horses but failed to find one. It’s easier to find supplemented winners than it is losers but, to state the obvious, details of the winners are useless without those of the losers.
I think the supplementary entry system was first used, for the Derby at least, in 1999. There have been 17 renewals of the race since then and only 2 supplemented winners. When looking at newpaper articles for the question on supplemented winners, I noted numerous examples of supplemented losers. (I say ‘noted’ but I failed to make a note of them.) An educated guess is that 2 or 3 horses are supplemented every year. Therefore roughly 34-51 horses have been added to the race at the last possible stage. That doesn’t make for a high winning percentage, and it doesn’t fill me with confidence that a profit has been possible in this race over the past 17 years using supplemented horses in a system.
Notwithstanding all that, if it isn’t going to greatly inconvenience your contact then I would like to find out more about this subject if at all possible.
Many thanks for the offer.
Thank you, steeple, I’m short for the nex question (my head is full of other racing related stuff, for the moment).
So grab the moment someone and ask the next Q!By the way Seasider, I for one would love a little story of the teaser supposedly sire of a derby winner. I do recall something about it, but can not put my finger to it…
Best Wishes
SilkJust to correct a couple of errors in my previous post.
The first supplementary entry to the Derby was Cape Verde in 1998. There has been a total of 19 such entries to the race and not 34-51 as previously suggested.
KS- concerning the teaser.
Pausing merely to tune the strings of my violin:
At the same stables in Newmarket (i.e. the stables of Edoardo Ginistrelli) was a horse called Chaleureux, a nine guinea stallion, which was used as a ‘teaser’, i.e. his job was to detect when mares came into season. Ginistrelli noticed that Signorina neighed to Chaleureux each day when he passed her box on his exercise round. Mr Ginistrelli decided the two horses were in love and let them mate. In horse-breeding circles, allowing a prize mare to breed from an unregarded stallion was deemed total folly. However, Ginistrelli based his decision on the “boundless laws of sympathy and love”. Signorinetta was the resultant foal.[1] Rather than send his filly to a professional, Ginistrelli trained her himself at Newmarket, Suffolk.
Love does indeed conquer all. Or so I’m told.
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