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If that were the case then would your firm not push her price out in the World Hurdle from nearly the shortest 11/4?
If that were the case then would your firm not push her price out in the World Hurdle from nearly the shortest 11/4?
I am not a racing trader.
We have shortened her for the Champion Hurdle to 13/2 from 8/1 but we have been Non Runner Free Bet since the Festival ended last March and Non Runner No Bet as of two weeks ago so the price reflects the ante post liabilities. If she turns up, what price does she go off?
Go for the Champion surely – the Stayers’ is a consolation to say the least, and I’m not even commenting on the cursed Mares race which should be abolished.
Yeah but its not a consolation race is it? Its just that we for some arbitrary reason put more prestige in a 2 mile rather than a 3 mile hurdler. We almost do the opposite in chasing.
I think most of the great champion hurdlers wouldn’t win a stayers and vice verse.
Which is why we should be wary of Annie Power.
It’s tradition, built up over years, and reflected in the competitiveness and the prize money. The gradient runs thus; 3 mile chasers, 2 mile hurdlers, 2 mile chasers, then 3 mile hurdlers.
Go for the Champion surely – the Stayers’ is a consolation to say the least, and I’m not even commenting on the cursed Mares race which should be abolished.
Yeah but its not a consolation race is it? Its just that we for some arbitrary reason put more prestige in a 2 mile rather than a 3 mile hurdler. We almost do the opposite in chasing.
I think most of the great champion hurdlers wouldn’t win a stayers and vice verse.
Which is why we should be wary of Annie Power.
It’s tradition, built up over years, and reflected in the competitiveness and the prize money. The gradient runs thus; 3 mile chasers, 2 mile hurdlers, 2 mile chasers, then 3 mile hurdlers.
You’ve got it wrong, it’s 3 mile chasers, 2 mile hurdlers, 2 mile chasers, 2 mile novice chasers,
then
3 mile hurdlers
On a more serious note, I wouldn’t be worried about the ground for The Power or indeed The Fly as with the watering policy I’d say it’s unlikely it’ll be anything other than the soft side of good on the Tuesday.
If the Riccis want the Champion I hope they get it. The dominant trainers really will have to get used to their horses running against each other in top races. I know Ruby wouldn`t desert a champion but that`s a poor reason for ducking the best races.
- Total Posts 764
Waaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit a minute does this mean Paul Townend is going to be riding Annie Power if she runs in the Champion Hurdle?
Time to rip up those betslips guys.
but we have been Non Runner Free Bet since the Festival ended last March
Do you know JJM, if VC are going to honour "Non Runner Free Bets" to accounts they
closed since
the bet was struck?
I got this message included with closure:
"Please be advised that no bonuses will be payable on any previous activity on this account and any promotional balance in your account at the time of closure has been removed".
Did get in touch with VC about it, but their reply seemed ambiguous.
Thanks
Mark
Value Is EverythingThe Champion Hurdle is by far the most prestigious hurdle race of the year and if you own a horse good enough to be a contender for it then surely you go for it.
I know there’s people saying she should run in the World Hurdle because she hasn’t got the speed to win the CH…but she’s never run over 3m so how can anyone be certain she’d be more effective over that trip?
It looks like a great renewal of the CH this year and if Annie Power was added to the line up it would add even more intrigue and excitement to the race.
MTOY is due to have one more race before the champion hurdle. I would love to see Annie run in this to see where she really stands. Doncaster taught us nothing other than she would win the mares hurdle if quevega doesn’t run in it
Seems as though the decision has been made.
Betfair price for the World hurdle 4/1 compared to a best 7/2 with bookies.
Betfair price 13.5/1 for the Champion compared to best price 8/1 at Bookies.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Ginge what do you see happening in the market with regards to Annie Power’s odds should she run in the world hurdle and not have another race before the big date?
I can’t see her getting any lower than 3/1 with her never having run the distance which would make her a horse to take your time betting on. Having said that I may have a cheeky go on her at 4’s.
Without her running, I saw Big Bucks winning by a length with At Fishers Cross second. Now that the Mare is looking likely for the race I could see her beating the lot by a fair 2-3 lengths.
Can’t have her down as an E/W bet as for me she’ll either win impressively and prove a class above the field or fail to get the trip.
She’ll stay all right, so I’ll be sorry to see her turn up against BB as I’ve backed him at 4s.
Whatever her breeding says, her running style suggests stamina is her forte.
- Total Posts 764
She’ll stay all right, so I’ll be sorry to see her turn up against BB as I’ve backed him at 4s.
Whatever her breeding says, her running style suggests stamina is her forte.
I have to agree, and the way in which she extended away from Zarkandar at Ascot only seems to confirm this. In that race she always had the better of the Nichols horse but the further they went the more accomplished and on-top she looked.
Ginge what do you see happening in the market with regards to Annie Power’s odds should she run in the world hurdle and not have another race before the big date?
I can’t see her getting any lower than 3/1 with her never having run the distance which would make her a horse to take your time betting on. Having said that I may have a cheeky go on her at 4’s.
Without her running, I saw Big Bucks winning by a length with At Fishers Cross second. Now that the Mare is looking likely for the race I could see her beating the lot by a fair 2-3 lengths.
Can’t have her down as an E/W bet as for me she’ll either win impressively and prove a class above the field or fail to get the trip.
Annie Power is difficult to assess Ben. As I said before on the other Annie thread:
"People seem to be getting carried away with Annie Power. We’ve seen in the Cheltenham Mare’s Hurdle there are very few top class mares. Only two around and they are stable companions and will never meet. She did exactly what her form merited this weekend. For sure we don’t quite know how good she is and could be anything – Exceptional or (just) good. But still has a lot to find on Hurricane Fly or a top form Big Buck’s".
To tell the truth, when I wrote the above I was forgetting she’d get 7 lbs sex allowance. That’s probably more than fair.
Still think some (Timeform included) have over-estimated Annie Power’s form so far. Admittedly it is difficult judging a horse on three runner races. Her ability relies on what you think of Zarkandar, who ran well at Ascot, but gave in all too easily at Cheltenham. In my opinion the Nicholls horse is a bit of a thinker these days. Not been right since that reappearance.
Annie’s last run can also be forgotten, against vastly inferior members of her own sex…If she were going in against Champion Hurdle horses I’d be against her at this stage (at least unless it’s very soft). HF, TNO and MTOY are imo all well up to Champion Hurdle winning standard, and OC still has potential to be. To me, seems to have plenty of stamina, further she went at Ascot the better she went; wouldn’t worry me having not run yet at the trip (unless it comes up very soft/heavy).
Although there are questions marks about how good her form is, she could still be Dawn Run class. As said, don’t rate the form as highly as Timeform, but I’d still rate her with a "p" or even big "P" for considerable improvement likely. Betting is not only about the one horse either. "Value" depends a lot on the other horses in a race. I wish More Of That was running, as he’s my ante-post gamble. Suspect he’d be a big threat if allowed to take his chance/if fit. All other horses seem to me worth opposing at current prices.
Big Buck’s did not impress me on reappearance and now 11 years old. Likely to come on a bit for the run (if over a very hard race) but doubt whether he’ll be at his very best. Doubtful if will need to be against the other horses, but with the 7 lbs plus likely improvement – it could be argued Annie Power should be favourite.
At Fishers Cross ran better last time, but heavy ground places less importance on jumping, round action and back problems mean 7/1 hardly looks generous. Price is more to do with earlier ante-post liabilities.
Quevega won’t run.
Rule The World is improving but needs to.
Zarkandar could yet improve at trip, but looked temperamental recently.
Celestial Halo is good enough to be placed in an average renewal, but to win? Doubt it. That said might be a good bet on the day at massive odds.
Saphir Du Rheu is going elsewhere judged by betfair.
Monksland has a bigger injury to get over than Big Buck’s.
Reve De Sivola may surprise a few if given a very positive ride. However, doesn’t look quick enough these days.
Salubrious needs to improve and could be described as stable 5th string.
There’s also soundness to take in to account. All the other major players have had their injury problems recently; Big Buck’s, At Fishers Cross and Rule The World. However…
I can’t see Annie Power starting at bigger than 3/1 and rather take that price NRNB instead of 4/1 though it was a toss up. Agree Ben, wouldn’t take each way. If BB is nowhere near his best the mare could even win it without coming under maximum pressure.
Value Is Everything
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