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Quote: from davidjohnson on 3:50 pm on Nov. 20, 2006[br]Nore – Has it really taken 5 seasons of seeing Beef or Salmon to come to the conclusion that Beef or Salmon is not a good jumper?
<br>No.
Hi AP
thanks for the reply.  I can see that MoF to lose was your best percentage bet.
byefrom<br>carlisle
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(Edited by carlisle at 5:49 pm on Nov. 20, 2006)
Drone I agree with you re 2/1 except its 15/8 with me. My reasoning being you have to risk a lot at less than 15/8 to win not much. Its 15/8 for me partly because of sentimental reasons and partly because a lot of drifters drift to 15/8 (eg Teofilo) before being backed back in again.
I don’t like laying horses to lose either because of the big risk that is often involved (eg BorS I’d be ******** myself laying at 7/2) but do lay horses in the placemarket generally.
Hi cormack15
I think you are working too hard.  You know you have got to smarten yourself up.  The following quote sums up what I mean.
By Daniel O’Sullivan The Form-Pro
"Has today’s unprecedented amount of racing information led to an increase in the number of winning punters? I would argue ‘No’.
The reason why, lies in the fact that the majority of punters depend exclusively on information published for mass public consumption (e.g. formguides, media stories, various statistics, etc.)
An individual punter may be more informed than 10 years ago because of these better tools but so too are the punters he or she is competing against. In relative terms, nothing has changed.
While no doubt necessary in our racing activities, information published and consumed en masse by the public is overused and offers no winning advantage. The most successful punters today are those who supplement common information with their own unique sources.
People refer to us as "proactive" users of information because we take what’s available and creatively develop it in a way that gives us an advantage.
When it comes to form analysis, we rely on the same information used by the public, but come to rely even more on the information we develop ourselves. We know that without this information we stand little chance of winning in the long term. I make ongoing profits because of my own information tools." <br> <br>Raw data can be combined in our own particular way to produce unique form study tools.
cormack15 can you condense your approach into a few lines of instructions, also called pseudocode.
I can provide the raw data needed to feed any subsequent program.
Maybe it’s just something to bear in mind, any resultant program will take time to get right.
Being able to produce a printout quickly and efficiently is the way forward.  This will reserve your energies for interpreting and revising your printouts.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 7:04 am on Nov. 21, 2006)
‘Pseudocode’ – Don’t know what on earth that is – I do a nice line in ‘psychobabble though!
Let me ponder that one before I propose a next step forward.
"Let me ponder that one before I propose a next step forward."
I would imagine a large whiskey?
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:
Quote: from Aragorn on 4:20 pm on Nov. 20, 2006[br]I think the conclusion to draw from all of this is that BOS is not the same horse when made to fence at pace, WOA is a better horse on quicker ground, and KS is going to stuff both of them come the gold cup.  Personally I thought BOS ran fairly well for him, he had his conditions almost to a tee except they were running in a different country so I can’t see why he wouldn’t have run his race and on that basis you have to say that WOA is going to have be a 10-15lb better horse on good ground to get close to Kauto.
Or maybe i’m reading this all too literally.. <br>
One thing I’ll say about Kauto Star, which I don’t think anybody has mentioned is that will he be as impressive when he has to jump at speed in a large field? I don’t think his jumping was too tidy when he won the Tingle Creek last year and he fell in the Champion chase at Chelters this year. Stepping him up to three miles has obviously eased the pressure on his jumping, but the Gold Cup will always test a horse’s jumping under pressure as we have seen with BoS.
Perhaps the King George will give more insight into this factor. However I do remember a certain Irish horse trouncing everything he ran against in 2002/03 in small fields and slowly run races, come GC he fell at the third.
Saying KS will stuff WoA at this stage is pure folly…..
Dave  —  A Pseudocode (derived from pseudo and code) is a compact and informal high-level description of a computer programming algorithm that uses the structural conventions of programming languages, but omits detailed subroutines, variable declarations or language-specific syntax. The programming language is augmented with natural language descriptions of the details, where convenient.
AS CLEAR AS MUD !<br>
JohnJ,
I would argue that a 2 mile chase is somewhat different and KS’s jumping is certainly a notch above BOS (do you disagree?). I think WOA is an equally good, if not better jumper than KS but on the last running in Ireland he went to put distance between him and BOS but couldn’t maintain it and got outstayed. That didn’t happen on saturday against KS. In both instances all the horses were fit (you could argue BOS had a much harder race and so perhaps the edge was taken off him) but comparatively WOA is going to have to improve to beat KS.
There’s no doubt WOA is a better horse on good ground but I think he will need to improve and my view is that KS should be the GC favourite. Whether he’ll stuff him, maybe i’m being a bit over the top but WOA is going to have to improve to make a race of it.
Aragon,
Thats my point mate, until he runs in a championship race at speed over 3m or 3m plus on good ground will you be able to say he is the real deal. People think just because he stayed in the Betfair and gave thumping to his opponents he should be the fav in the GC. I don’t agree, my point abut both 2m chases, i.e. Tingle and CC his jumping was suspect without question.
WoA has proved on two seasons out of three that I have been following him that he is a much better horse in the Spring. His winning time in last seasons GC was quite impressive and it will be most interesting to see if KS can put a clear round of jumping at this type of pace, the King George should be a clear test of his credentials….
JohnJ.
Fair one, but I thought he jumped really well saturday and at pace when required. Francome pointed out that because he’s he type of horse that wings his fences, much like Moscow Flyer, he’s liable to fall every so often. When he gets it right though he’s out of the top drawer. I don’t doubt that there won’t be a race where you’ll get your fingers burned backing him but I think thats likely to be the only times he gets beat. The one horse I would fancy to lower his colours is kicking king if he ever comes back to what he was. I remember him making BOS look very ordinary in Ireland in much the same way as KS did..
All in all whatever happens, this year certainly looks the best for a while in terms of quality.. If they all get there.
Totally agree – it will be mouth watering, especially if WoA and KS meet in the KG. Though, I just don’t think he is as fluent as the Betfair made him out to be, jumping at speed is a huge factor, something the last three GC winners had in abundance.
JohnJ.
Pretty sure that Paul Nichols and Ruby are on record (even before the race i think) as expecting him to jump better at speed rather than the other way round
We shall see<br>
Clive,
But his record thus far has not been totally convincing, despite what trainer and jockey have said….
JohnJ
i think there should be 2 divisions for the king george this year! kauto star and monets garden div 1, the rest div2!
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