- This topic has 99 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 12 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Following on from the ‘Form study – a solitary pursuit’ thread the idea of this thread is to collate ideas/thoughts from a variety of perspectives on this Saturday’s Betfair Chase.
What we’re aiming for is to have individual forum members put forward their analysis of the race along with a commentary of the approach they’ve used. Others will then either build on those ideas, knock them down or come up with their own angle. (No sensitive egos need therefore apply!).
Once we’ve had all the views in then we need to try to make sense of them, as a whole. No easy task but one that I’m sure a few of us can have a go at.
One possible outcome is that we’ll end up with nothing more than a mish-mash of viewpoints on the race which, collectively, get us nowhere.
On the other hand it may be that we find some interesting, complementary approaches which rather than proving contradictory will help us get to the heart of what is most likely to happen on Saturday (or, should I say, to the heart of identifying the outcome whose potential to occur has been most underestimated by the market).
The only guidelines for posting are as follows –
You must discuss the rationale/method behind your analysis, don’t just say, ‘I think Iris’s Gift is value’
Criticism of anyone elses methods/views is fine but should be polite, positive and constructive.
(Apologies also to those who started the other two Betfair Chase threads, I fear I’ve hijacked those a little so apologies people)
This kind of feels like letting a Rottweiler of a leash but here goes!
i see kauto star has been installed the short priced favourite for the betfair chase. the horse is on my 10 to follow, but i think monkerhostin could beat him if he runs, which now seems unlikely. monkerhostin seems to run a stone better when fresh. iris’s gift could be interesting too
Can’t see either of them getting close if Kauto Star stands up.. I thought at evens he was a great bet last time and i’ll be backing him again.
What form does Kauto Star have in soft ground over 3m that makes him backable at shorter than 2/1. It seems everyone has given up on Kingscliff but on his day he’s as good as anything in this field and better than most of them. I thought he shaped well at Wetherby, cutting out a strong pace and weakening as if the run was needed to put him spot on. He progressed from that to win what was at least as strong a renewal last year and looks the value to me at around 7/1.
Some people hoovered up prices about L’Ami and he makeszero appeal at current odds, he’ll need 3 or 4 not to give their running to win I feel. It looks like Beef or Salmon will get his conditions and I think we could see last year’s first 2 fighting out the finish once again.
A word of caution for anybody thinking of backing Kauto Star on the ante post market. Paul N has said that Kauto may not run at Haydock if the ground gets too testing which is why the horse has also been entered in the Peterborough. <br>
I won’t be on antepost and take your point DJ but Kingscliff has lost it for me. Unless the Alner’s train the animal properly rather than treating it like the family pet I don’t think it’ll ever be up to GC standard. (They may have changed their methods since last year)
BOS rates the big danger for me, but i’ll be on KS if it runs.
OK – just to start things off.
My initial inclination is to eliminate both Iris’s Gift and Ollie Magern as potential betting propositions for the race. This is done on the basis that the evidence of the last year illustrates that both have massive tasks here. Each has top class form earlier than that but IMO much money is lost through taking an overly sympathetic view of old form. I always concentrate on recent, or relatively recent, form. In most cases this will give a very clear indication of the current merit of a horse, although there are exceptions which need to be borne in mind, such as when a horse may have been laid out for a prize or when a horse has been racing for a period at the wrong trip or on unsuitable ground. There is no indication whatsoever that this is the case with either of these two and, unless there has been a miraculous transformation, both are greater than 50/1 with me.
Looking at the other four. Transforming their best Racing Post Rating over the last year (a fairly solid indication of current ability) into prices via a formula I have developed gives the following tissue (betting to 100%). Approx current betfair odds in brackets.
Kauto Star 2/1 (6/4)<br>Beef Or Salmon 9/4 (100/30)<br>Kingscliff 7/2 (7/1)<br>L’Ami 7/1 (5/1)
This is my usual starting point and gives a basic guide to how the runners sit in terms of raw ability at the current time. Using odds to express this rather than pounds/ratings begins to focus my mind on assessing probabilities related to odds rather than simply assessing merit, although the two figures (the ratings and the odds) amount to the same thing, an expression of the superiority of one horse over the other. (Note that the two horses I’ve discounted both end up with figures of over 300/1 using this formula!).
Although there is some way to go with my work on the race I’m immediately now interested in Beef Or Salmon and Kingscliff, although Kauto Star appears the likeliest winner. But, my first revelation, I don’t want to find the likeliest winner!! I’m interested in finding the horse(s) whose chance has been underestimated.
Ok – so far so good. My next step is to look at each horse and assess the probability of them actually running to, or near, their best form of the last year. This means some hard work with the formbook and each horses record will be reviewed with a key focus on :
Distance<br>Going<br>Pace/running style<br>Improvement/deterioration<br>Solidity of form (what I mean here is an assessment of how sure I am that the best form figure is accurate – this has some relevance for this race as I will discuss later)<br>Consistency
I would also normally take a look at the race trends and then evaluate each of our ‘possibles’ against these. I normally give a strong weighting to powerful trends. The absence of history in this particular race means that I cannot do any meaningful work in that area.
Once done I will reassess each horses form figure in light of my expectation that they will be able to run to it and then adjust.
More tomorrow.
cormack,
I’m impressed – I like the way you’ve incorporated a systematic approach with your personal opinions. This is a very similar way to how I approach my area of racing. (vastly different – flat sprint handicaps!)
An excellent start – I can’t wait for the individual horse analysis now.
Hi cormack15
enjoyed reading your opening foray.
I will declare my position. My NH speed ratings are not up to date, so I cannot get involved in a full blooded manner, yet……<br>Eventually, it will be very interesting to compare our price estimates.
Hope to contribute with an alternative approach.
Out of interest, how long do you spend on a typical race?
byefrom<br>carlisle
ps "yet……" means God knows when.
(Edited by carlisle at 10:14 am on Nov. 17, 2006)
I fear that if everybody puts up their own methods for analysing this race then there will be no meaningful discussion as there will be very little "continuous flow" to the thread. For example, there is a lot to digest in cormack15’s post there and more to come from him!:o So if carlisle then also posts his speed ratings and others post their ramblings on the thread we will have no "real" discussion
I propose that each week a different member is given the opportunity to show what they can do and others can discuss the merits or otherwise of their method for that week. This would also allow a separate "race discussion" thread to grow as distinct to a "analysis method" thread.
It would be preferable to use a top class race obviously (one from the BHB Order of Merit) as more people would be aware of the form etc and also have more interest in it but if a member specialises in another area (Nov Hdls or AW or whatever) then they can choose a race like that.
Depends on the race and the complexity of it. I wouldn’t dream of having what I would call a ‘serious’ bet on a race without at least two hours study, usually more. I keep ongoing data for most of the big races meaning I just have to ‘top up’ my data but, if I was starting from scratch on a race that alone would take an hour or two in itself.
My analysis of the Betfair Chase differs from my usual approach, as mentioned above, in that trend analysis can form a key part of my race dissection.
I’ll post up my completed Betfair Chase analysis later today but, in the meantime, and in the spirit of co-operation which inspired the thread, I’d be interested to hear any views people have on the following specifics –
Kauto Star – likelihood he’ll stay and evidence for that view.<br>Kingscliff – on the downgrade or can he bounce back?<br>Beef or Salmon – how soft does it have to be for him to show his very best form.<br>L’Ami – been consistently running to 160+ but can’t seem to win. What is it he lacks, or perhaps it is the case that he is still progressing and he might be improving past soem of these?
Some thoughts on these issues would prove helpful.
Successful punting in my view relies on the ability to interpret the key issues in a race, such as those questions posed above. The mathematical analysis, my starting point, provides the foundations, but the key, IMO, lies in reading between the lines, and seeing beyond the numbers to varying degrees.
Just seen your thread DB – we crossed over. The idea of having one member per week analyse a particular race and outline their methodology is a good one. I agree that such an approach will provide a more focussed way of discussing the various methods.
If interested members PM me then I can draw up a running order for that.
This week though we’ll just keep this one going as per the original plan and see what happens.
This is great stuff Corm but would perhaps say that this is a race where there may be little new to say?
Being fussy now!
Hi cormack15
I agree that the data analysis/maths must form the foundation. That enables you to get a handle on the race. Overall ratings/price estimates begin to highlight any potential value.
Alternative approaches can add further layers of understanding. Consequently prices estimate can be revised up or down.
Computers can only do so much, it’s up to the humans to draw it all together.  DB there doesn’t have to be any loss of focus.
We just need a Big Strong Policeman.
byefrom<br>carlisle
"I am working on my stuff……."
<br>
I know what you’re saying Clivex but the very fact that the various contestants have such a good history makes it a more solvable puzzle and an intriguing one which people will be interested in too.
I’m very impressed, cormack.
This level of analysis is essential if you are betting seriously. You really have to get into the race and start dissecting it. It could easily take two or more hours to do this kind of detailed study.
This hasn’t been my approach for quite a while because of trying to cover more races, more for the sake of interest than anything else. It makes my ratings approach, which is essentially a short-cut method, seem quite hollow by comparison. I look forward to reading the final analysis.
- Total Posts 17716
Kauto Star – likelihood he’ll stay and evidence for that view. <br>Kingscliff – on the downgrade or can he bounce back? <br>Beef or Salmon – how soft does it have to be for him to show his very best form. <br>L’Ami – been consistently running to 160+ but can’t seem to win. What is it he lacks, or perhaps it is the case that he is still progressing and he might be improving past soem of these?
Kauto Star<br> Very limited form book evidence that he will stay, though he wasn’t stopping in any of his races thus far.<br>However, (and a very big however), his trainer obviously thinks he will having adopted an attacking policy by going straight in for this race rather than a number of softer options before the King George.<br> PN isn’t a man to take undue risks with his best horses, and the very fact that he runs here speaks volumes for his confidence that KS willl definitely stay. I completely trust his judgement on this one!
Beef or Salmon<br> It is a falllacy that this horse need soft ground, he has run to his best on good going on at least 2 occasions.<br>What he does need, at the very top level, is something to slow the other horses down as he just isn’t very good at negotiating fences at speed. His Gold Cup 4th shows that he can run well on good ground, it also shows he can only do it in his own time.
Kingscliff.<br>His fto run at Wetherby was disappointing, about a stone below last year’s run but, one seriously over-rated run apart, his form has been modest for a couple of seasons now.<br>His win in this last year was rated on his defeat of Beef or Salmon and Kicking King, yet BoS invariably runs below his best in properly run races (even with 4 fences missed out) and KK was found to be injured afterwards.<br>The speed rating for this race is also highly questionable.
L’Ami<br> This horse needs a stiff test, 3 miles is barely adequate as he didn’t get going until too late in both the RP Chase and the Gold Cup<br>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.