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What a great launchpad the all weather maidens are providing for the form. Perhaps the handicapper will be taking a keener grip in future
Just a few horses whom were let in through the AW backdoor
Debussy – 90
Ghanaati – 85
Photographic – 86
Sans Frontieres – 76
High Heeled
Racketeer 85No surprise viewing the Kempton AW maiden on Monday for 3yo consisting of runners from Cecil, Stoute, Noseda, Gosden, Jarvis, Balding, Bin Suroor, Fanshawe, Cole.
A comparison to a similar affair strength in depth at Newcastle (4.45) makes interesting reading.
Looking forward to another "beach" duckbreaker allowed onto the open grass called Raaeidd today at Windsor. Been allotted a mark of 80 for Michael Jarvis. Third horse home Alsahil (rated 79), 5th Fortuni (winner off 78) reads well in the hope Raaeidd can be competitive off 80. Interesting the maiden Raaeidd clocked had been quicker than Laudatory whom won the second division (Handicap debut winner last week)
Sign of the times…..
Hi Nayo,
Don’t suppose you remember the good old days when the AW was in its infancy and at the start of the flat season you could easily discount any horse that had been wintering on the AW?
From memory, only rarely did AW form translate to turf. These days, I just find it virtually impossible to get a handle on how much confidence I should place on the reliability of performances on the different surfaces. One thing is certain, I’m already looking forward to the mud and grind of the winter jumping game.
KenHi Nayo,
Love reading how excited you seem about all this but for me I am similar to Ken. My methods exclude any All Weather events as, for me, they are just too unreliable. I have given up on trying to make sense of the data they produce.
Good luck though and I hope your reasoning works well for you
Your view would be shared by many however since the addition of every trainer having access to all weather gallops, the training schedule in preparing horses for grass campaigns has altered accordingly. It must be a wonderful experience for a newcomer, sliding down to a poly-track maiden. Once they arrive from the horsebox straight into the racecourse stabling area, none of the tracks have got any road crossings or walking a mile of the ‘Knavesmire’ to reach the parade ring. The ability to run a horse without being jarred up, knocked about on heavy ground and simply even ground conditions throughout should not be underestimated.
All weather racing can only be a way forward – did you notice the Group 3 Winter Derby offered the same prize money as Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket. Once they bring minimum values of the lower grade affairs, it should bring a much brighter outlook for beach supporters.
On a personal note which you may or maybe not interested in but may explain something – I have owned or part owned
Nine national hunt horses – One died due to a heart attack, broken neck, broken shoulder, my favourite fractured a coffin bone. Of the five survivors, three are retired after injuries, one goes to Plumpton next week for a guaranteed prize fund of £2,500, the other awaiting debut.From my flat involvement (12) – one horse got injured at Musselburgh with a tendon.
Yes, it’s a great involvement and spectcle the jumps game BUT you need so much more luck. You can number crunch data all day whether a horse can justify a lower hurdles mark than chase rating, or whether a horse will operate in heavy ground BUT surely continuity of three excellent polytrack surfaces with suitable draw bias emphasis over certain trips gives you more of an edge than anything jumps racing can offer?
Yours
Mr Arena Leisure
Yes, it’s a great involvement and spectcle the jumps game BUT you need so much more luck. You can number crunch data all day whether a horse can justify a lower hurdles mark than chase rating, or whether a horse will operate in heavy ground BUT surely continuity of three excellent polytrack surfaces with suitable draw bias emphasis over certain trips gives you more of an edge than anything jumps racing can offer?
Yours
Mr Arena Leisure
It is quite obviously the other way around – see all the points made (one of which was the greater prominence of all-weather racing) on the thread regarding the perils of betting on the Flat – hopefully they are not all going to be rehashed again here.
Can’t argue with the welfare points, Nayo, and I am sorry to read about the misfortunes experienced by your horses.
I agree that there has been so many improvements in both compatibility with turf and training facilities over the years that the cross-over is much less well-defined nowadays and this is reinforced by the fact that all the top trainers seem to have no qualms whatsoever about running their horses on the aggregate surfaces.
Nostalgically, I suppose, I yearn for the days when perhaps one or two in the field had shown a kind disposition toward running on the surface and I could confidentally go against favourites with a proven discomfort for having to run in the depths of winter. I used to single out those first-timers with a U.S.A. pedigree who, more often than not, would acquit themselves very well.
Would you agree that Mark Prescot was one of the first top trainers to recognise the virtues of all-year round racing? (Despite the fact that he had, much to my financial benefit, some long odds-on favourites turned over).
Cheers
KenYour 100% right IMO….
Sir Mark Prescott used the all weather surfaces to his advantage, the most paramount point by getting them ‘fixed’ on a good bench marks. How many Sir Mark Prescott horses are risked by catching the eye in Newmarket maidens?….Not many if any!
If horses like Hasten To Add, Forbearing, Danhurst, Foreign Affairs, One Off, No Refuge, Elusive Dream, Comic Strip (Viva Patica) and Spectait had started the education process at Newmarket or Newbury, would these horses have been allowed ratings to enable them much required penalty kicks for progression and connections pocket.
Racehorses are athletes – surely confidence in beating lesser opposition enables further progression. On another tread David Flood is running a 3yo filly in a conditions stakes for a 42-lengths defeat.
If a racehorse has the right ‘education’ surely it gives them a greater chance to progress?
When Prescott trained a few for Godolphin and Saeed Manana in the early 90’s, perhaps they presented him a few yaks which had to be seen at your metropolitan tracks, the manner in which Prescott exploits the system would be very interesting granted Sheikh Mo sent a few backward types to Sir Mark.
I think in recent years; things have changed for Prescott; one or two of his more prominent gambling owners are no longer with him which has left more boxes for owner breeders Cheveley Park, Miss Rausing, Sonia Rodgers plus recently acquired Planatation Stud. I’m sure his objective for some of these lesser fillies are just to notch wins at any level possible and perhaps they just aren’t that good, but reputation proceeds in this industry, which creates false prices on Heath House inmates?Personally I just treat all weather racing just the same as turf racing. In my opinion, all weather is just another surface in the same way soft and firm are surfaces. I dont spend time worrying about the cross over of turf form to all weather form and viceversa. What is perhaps more pertinent is that the All Weather tracks (Southwell aside) are sharper than many of the "bigger" turf courses (Newmarket, Newbury, Doncaster, Ascot, York are more galloping in nature). So perhaps the issue is not so much will a horse handle the surface but will it handle the course configuration?
I’m a bit of an AW punter and I can honestly say the form transfering from AW to turf is confusing at best.
I almost always need to see a horse, that has run so well consistently on the AW, have their first run on the turf before backing it on the green stuff.
Theres a hell of a lot making the transfer right this year though. Particularly in the sprinting division
Ghanaati (USA)
Age: 3 (foaled 28th Mar 2006) Trainer: B W Hills
Sex: Bay Filly Owner: Mr Hamdan Al MaktoumForm
03 May 09 1/14 Nkt 8f Class 1 Group 1 20/1
27 Oct 08 1/13 Kemp 7f Class 4 4/6f
22 Sep 08 3/14 Kemp 7f Class 4 7/2Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
Last two champion hurdle winners Punjabi and Katchit have been beaten favourites in all weather maidens.
I had a tip for Snoqualmie Boy in a maiden at Lingfield, he himself went onto Royal Ascot success. If only we’d have known the future 14-lengths Dubai World Cup winner had been in attendence in the shape of Well Armed.
Southwell is a shithole, the track surface is bloody vile, the facilties are rancid, the area is a bloody marsh, the food and beverrages are over priced and tiny portions.,.
I had have two runners their, one piut hr back out and the other ripped a shoe off.
Wolves is fun and the surface is good, its bargin basement, but it lacks the racecourse from hell feel of southwell.And from memory (should really check but I’m lazy – someone can confirm), didn’t Crowded House win a Kempton maiden?? Could that be another Classic winner?
Spot on Douginho. He did indeed after finishing 10th in Delegators maiden win.
Crowded House beat a really decent prospect of Gosdens called Alwarry among others.
One thing I’ve picked up over the years is that Meehan’s horses almost always need their first run (Radiohead proved that yesterday….Shame I was on the wrong one!). But thats for another thread….
Thanks Halfwaytoheaven. I knew someone would be less lazy than me, lol.
Couple interesting maidens at Kempton today to keep an eye on…not for classic clues mind!
One just went off with Invisible Man (Gosden/Fortune) as the 6/4 favourite. Anyone else think this horse is overrated?
Looked as though a Godolphin runner by the name of Sovereign Remedy might just get there but it was a Michael Jarvis runner Rainbow Peak who got there (son of Hernando).
I wont be taking that form too literally if I’m honest, Didnt look as strong a race as expected
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