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Nice one aaron!
I’ve had a look at the 4:00 at Southwell today…
Cause For Applause won a virtual non-event last time; she showed that she handled the surface ok, but the form is worth zip and she looks no value at likely odds here.
Similarly, Shifting Gold looks pretty short given two weak AWT efforts (at Wolves and here) and it may be that turf suits much better.
With Paint Splash a non-runner, this race starts to look there for the taking by anything with a bit of ability lurking.
Both Cool Sonata and Chantilly Dancer look likely to struggle to stay the trip, and King’s Chorister hardly looks chucked in off a mark of 59.
Of the remainder, Le Petit Vigier needs to bounce back from a seemingly unexplained tame effort last time, but otherwise makes some appeal. Kneesy Earsy Nosey is a big price which compensates for her lack of consistency, and she has at least run ok here (runner-up to Paint Splash). Lomica may well need a bit further, but is unexposed and running in her first handicap, and is weighted closely on Thirsk form with Kingaroo who won a stronger race here last time and ought to go well if getting home (wasn’t stopping).
But, my selection is LADY DUNHILL [/color:1erp3xhs]who is currently available at 10/1+. She ran surprisingly well in a 6f maiden here two weeks ago, and yet again showed that (in keeping with her breeding) she would benefit from this kind of trip. She runs in her first handicap over a more suitable distance off a mark of just 49, and with fitness and course form in the bank, she looks worth a small investment.
SELECTION
50% on LADY DUNHILL – to win
50% on LADY DUNHILL to beat {Le Petit Vigier, Kneesy Earsy Nosey, Kingaroo, Lomica} in 4 x Exactas and 12 Tricasts[/color:1erp3xhs]Off for the last three shortly. I cannot believe Excusez Moi is 30/1 on Betfair (2.30). This horse finished a couple of lengths off Laa Rayb in the Tote International not six months ago. What would Laa Rayb do to this lot? Didn’t that run in a Hong Kong Gp 1?
I’m backing two fillies in the last. Lady Dunhill had a pipe opener two weeks ago on her first run since leaving Jim Goldie. Ran close to a Noseda hotpot and could improve. Currently 10/1. I also cannot resist a little on Lomica. for Miss Camacho. Punted second time out and not punished by the handicapper. Mulrennan rides and the top of the market is fragile, particularly the favourite (up over a stone for a selling win). 12/1.
Nice winner Aaron.
Fortunately for you both I’m not going with Lady Dunhill. I have it between Cause For Applause who won over C&D on a slow track LTO and Le Petit Vigier whose 2nd two runs ago would give it every chance today. As pointed out LPV has a disappointing run to put behind it LTO and CFA’s race wasn’t the greatest however according to the Racing Post ran wide throughout. The time wasn’t too bad for slow going and if you allow for a bit of improvement I can’t see it being out of the first three. Cool Sonata might sneak the tricast spot
Good write up NV and I’m sorry for jinxing you. I could stop a bullet at the moment. Looked well in the paddock and ran well enough. Peter Beaumont was there to see LPV run and must have been shocked. Most of North Yorkshire were standing with Kevin Ryan in the paddock beforehand so I suppose the murder was out about the reason for Spencer’s visit
.For the future, John Berry was gutted to be in the runners up spot in the winners enclosure after the fourth. Seven of Take Me There’s owners were there and the favourite was well fancied. Possibly the best looking horse I’ve seen at the sandpit this season. Absolutely fine looking animal who will jump a hurdle at least. There’s a race over 1m 6f coming up and Crowley didn’t put Berry off the plan.
Wolverhampton today
220 Brazilian Brush Alt Sarahs Art
350 Star Strider Alt Plush
420 Common Diva
520 A Big Sky Brewing Alt Sendreni
550 Imperial Djay Alt StargazyKempton tonight
820 Gallantry
850 Zuwaar Alt Salute
920 Thabaat Alt Liberty Valance Tricast Outer Hebrides4.30 Wolverhampton. 1m11/2 furlong Banded contest.
Abbeygate Banded regular at home in conditions. Beaten off lower, wide draw and out of form.
Agilete. 510 days off. Banded placed, but trip short of optimum. Probable pipe opener.
Bobering. Wins for Sonia Eaton/tender handling. Conditions fine; a heartbreak horse, be warned.
Dobravany. Dark horse in first time pieces. Naughty last time when punted. Today the day?
Fortuitous. Unplaced in ten runs, all at prices. Winston the only positive.
Frosty’s Gift. Ponderous mare; dropped to banded company for first time. Spoon candidate.
Norwegian. Four time Dunstall podium vet, unbeaten in Banded company. Dropped in class for the third run after a break and high percentage stable go-to jockey Donohoe rides. Superlative claims.
Postage. Off for two years. Punting yard: one race (April 06) is outstanding: watch market.
Rain Stops Play. Front running shadow of former self, now with low percentage jumps stable. Unlikely.
Spy Gun. Inexperienced family jockey rides micro-percentage stable pet.
Summer Bounty. Pensioner on day trip to West Midlands. Needs at least two furlongs further.
The London Gang. My sneaky fancy. Third run back/class drop. Massive price for tasty yard.
Ricci De Mare Blinkered first time, wide drawn filly, yet to place for new Loughborough outfit.Conclusion A contender for worst race of the AW season, but strangely fascinating. Norwegian is a good bet to win, with The London Gang a potential outsider to consider from a yard making headlines. Postage and the Irish raider Dobravney are ones to consider if the cash arrives.
Max
I can’t bring myself to look at the 4.30. Can you enlighten me a little on the new Loughborough outfit.
Mine for today are
2.00 Merrion Tiger Alt Market Watcher
3.30 Daraiym Alt Pseudonym
4.00 Fandango Boy Alt Pelham Crescent
5.30 Pab Special Alt Alf TupperMorning Aaron. The new outfit I refer to is Graham Smith (GJ Smith) who trains near Loughborough (I think). Likes a touch or two at the sandpit.
Thinking of having a horse? I’ll buy a hoof.
ATR have Frosty’s Gift as the most likely winner. How I larfed when I read their summary! They’ve also top rated Summer Bounty on Formscan, but we do agree roughly on Norwegian.
Best of luck today.
Couldn’t have had the Pearce winner had I been given the nod from the Almighty.
Norwegian ran respectably but the betting gave the story away. The London Gang is going to win a race soon, but it won’t be at this trip. Travelled well to 7f out today and there were bits and bobs for it. A fast run 7f and possibly a more ambitious ride should see a win.
A very difficult day. Another season like this and I’ll be searching for a pair of green wellies and my hip flask.
Southwell.
12.40
Tiegs.
13.10
Blue Hills
Peter Hiatt can enjoy a good day with these front running Southwell specialists who may both place at least. The latter has won twice and been placed twice for the capable Marie King. In the latter race, I also plan to back
Que Beauty
who has improved for cheekpieces and likes the course.
14.10
Ronnie Howe
Tough talking local
haulagier
Roy Bowring has his all weather team firing on all cylinders and this one time solid performer for the Dods yard is tongue strapped and blinkered for the first time under the capable Liam Jones (an intriguing booking).
Notes:
Efisio Princess
might reign back at Southwell (15.10). Expect much better from
Understanding Jeff
from the McKay Parr outfit in the maiden.
Mrs Bun
looks tasty in the nightcap under red hot Spencer.
Best of luck with those Max
I’m not really in to Amateur races but I would give Amron Hill a chance in the 12.40.
Keeping on the hill theme I also like Blue Hills in the 1.10 with Snowberry Hill the likeliest danger.
Jordi Roper in the 210 would be the only possible bet at Southwell for me tomorrow
Well we got Blue Hills between us at 11/2. I’m kicking myself that I didn’t back Ronnie Howe each way at 14/1 who looked like winning at one point.
Efisio Princess was a lovely 100/30 at one point and loves the sandpit (In fact all three horses do). Someone backed Tiegs for a ton each way at 50/1 but that one has gone at the game. I don’t think Spencer was at his absolute very best in the finish on Mrs Bun but hey, he was up against a fancied GL Moore horse. Not a lot you can do.
Understanding Jeff left the stalls last, trailed the field last and finished last. Hey ho. He’s better than that but by the time they’ve got it ready for the plot, I’ll have forgotten about it.
Best of luck tomoz.
Kempton
6.50K You can sense the frustration and sheer derision emanate from scribe Paul Smalley’s keyboard in the Racing Post when discussing this Classified stakes. I understand his sentiments on an aesthetic level but I don’t see his logic as a punter – I’d rather back in basement races like this than in a Class 3 handicap at, say, Thirsk where horses are upgraded, downgraded, middlegraded and Michael graded to the point where you can’t see the wood from the trees. There’s too much confusion.
In a race as bad as this, there are no good horses. Only three or four horses can possibly win and it’s a level class playing field.
Spanish Ace
for example was a sick horse last year along with many of Bradley’s. Ran off 88 as recently as June 2007. Tried 7f last time and failed miserably to achieve it, but ran superbly up to that point. I see it’s 7/1 which I cannot believe. Promising claimer Jack Dean rides.
Some long priced horses:
Light the Light
is nailed on to improve for leaving the Wallace gambling academy for Rae Guest, a traditional master with fillies. She’s 20/1. (7.20)
Moon Mix
is getting closer and closer to the bullseye (witness his excellent Great Leighs run two back), and his best run in this country (this time last year), came after a jumps warm up. 25/1 should be easily achievable and I’ve got to continue with my journey off the cliff. (8.20)
Best of luck!
Edited for factual error.
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