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This race seems to be causing a lot of differences in opinion.
My worry with Orcadian is that he will find it difficult to make all the running on his first attempt at this track. I would also question how well handicapped he is – obtained his present rating by being placed in listed company.
Mighty Moon seems to have been treated harshly for his latest win – up 20lb for an easy win on soft ground – I doubt whether he can reproduce that form on the faster polytrack.
Sweet Indulgence won well enough but I just doubt the form of the race he won.
Country Pursuit is a dual C/D winner who has a chance if returning to form but the one I like is Cold Turkey who loves coming from off a fast pace and enjoys racing here. He’s the one I’ve backed at 2/1.
Anyway let’s hope that one of us is right:) ÂÂÂ
NV – You win – good stuff. Pity that we didn’t do the RF using our selections;)  <br>
Cheers Swallow – forecast wasn’t that good, although I was pleasantly surprised at the SP. I wonder what the Musson stable cat is called, and whether it’s been entered up next week… :)
Good stuff NV – wish I’d seen that before the race!
Back to the drawing board for me – hopeless, on a day I wish I’d stayed in bed!
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Well done slippery in the 2:40 – 1st and 3rd was an excellent effort.
What/why was your interest in Vortex by the way?
Also, excellent work Maxilon, although I suspect you may have ended up without winning.
The only time this year I don’t back Nayyir it wins:angry: .
Did anyone see how well Nayyir travelled and picked up today? Looked the winner 4f out. THe headgear obviously worked the trick and I believe it can follow up next time out (granted luck in running of course).<br>
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 8:36 pm on Nov. 18, 2006)
Good to see the old boy win – my own opinion was that Blue Bajan would have won if not having to run wide and was given a slightly overconfident ride.
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Cheers NV and congratulations.:biggrin:
I did indeed lose on the race; Michael Hills is not currently on my Christmas card list though I’ve learned that slagging jockeys is largely pointless.
I got 14’s this morning and 8’s on Charlie Cool who wasn’t suited by the way the race was run.
To make matters worse, like FSL, I’ve been over a cliff with Butler’s old warhorse, (particularly in the Golden Mile this year) and should have had a little on it to quell the wave of sickness which came over me in the final fifty yards.
Nevertheless, a profitable thread so far for the sandboys.:biggrin:
non vintage
My interest in Vortex was driven by ratings (top rated on mine). During analysis (and based on the Racing Posts tissue) I initially earmarked him as a vulnerable favourite. Further analysis revelled a number of runners that were outclassed and due to the pace of the race (I have not seen the replay yet so I’m guessing) I predicted that closers would hold sway in the race, which enhanced the chances of Qadar and Areyoutalkingtome in this pace scenario.
Currently I am trying to develop a process for exacta and trifecta’s betting and using the american handicapping principle of “learning something from every raceâ€ÂÂ
thanks slippery. am also yet to watch saturday’s replays, but i suspect that there was plenty of early on in the race.
While I am slightly disappointed at the price after his last-placed run at Lingfield on Saturday, I cannot get away from Party Boss in the 17.50 1m Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton.
Brett Doyle, hot on the heels of his four timer yesterday, braves the M1/M6 nightmare by travelling down from Southwell for just the one ride.
Party Boss’s course record stands at 3112. It is clear that the race on Saturday was too short, (7f) and not run to suit; this mile plus change will suit much better and Racing at Wolver (unlike Lingers) is currently suiting the prominently ridden horse.
Clive Brittain is having winners at the course this season, (Bahar Shumaal, Fares and a top weighted nursery winner spring to mind) and his horses are in reasonable form; unlike some of the opposition, including the stable of the forecast favourite, Cimyla. (recent runs: U18864, sent off at an average price of 9/2).
Additionally, Sir Mark Prescott hasn’t had a winner for three weeks, (0-6); Nick Littmoden for a month, (0-19) and Karl Burke has had but a single winner from 22 runs, (including several failed market shorteners).
On the book, Party Boss is up against it, particularly against Cimyla who has form with some top class AW horses at Listed and G3 level.
But Party Boss’s course form is solid and because of the last place, and his connections, may be underbet.
I’m not happy with the price at the minute and will be waiting for the opening show. Any 10’s or 12’s and I am in.
I will probably cover with an Exacta including Cimyla who is something of an unknown quantity running fresh.
Good luck all.
Max
I’ll have to take that one on Max with Violette. I think her form is understimated and the 11/2 with Corals looks pretty fair.
17:50W 1pt Violette 11/2
Anyone got thoughts on the 5.50 at Wolves –
I really liked the look of Gilded Cove – from the bang in form Reg Hollinshead stable. Only concern is a serious lack of pace in the race – and I have a feeling Conjecture could get an uncontested soft lead from the 2 stall…..
Discuss..:biggrin:
with the exception of this friday (i’m off to Wolverhampton :biggrin: ) I’m steering clear of any race lower than class 3 for the moment ..
Sorry cant help..
5.50 Wolves
Pace Analysis
There appears to be little or early pace in this race and lots of hold-up performers, making this a tricky event from a pace point of view. The most likely early leader is Conjecture from the 2 stall. He has a few ‘made alls’ in his form history and if given a soft lead here he could be hard to peg back. His lack of course experience is a worry, although there is no real reason to suggest he wouldn’t act on the track. His best form is undoubtedly at the minimum distance and this extra furlong could find him out.
Contenders
Cape Presto: Rated in the high 80’s when with Richard Hannon as a 2-y-o, was quickly shipped out to Christine Dunnett after showing nothing in 3 runs as a 3-y-o. Has dropped down the handicap quickly and came back to form last time out off 67 when dropped down to a sprint distance for the first time since his 2-y-o days. Winning in impressive style last time by 2 ½ lengths in a class 5 event, the time of that event compares favourable with the other CD winners in the race. A negative would have to be the wide stalls position of 12, but with little pace on early, it’s possible he could get a decent position under the excellent John Egan. Being by Cape Cross he is entitled to improve as he gets older and it could just be possible he has come to himself.
Gilded Cove: Comes from the red-hot stable of Reg Hollinshead (4 winners, 1 second from last 5 runners), at home here at Wolverhampton he looks fairly treated on his course form. He can also go well fresh and looks to have ever chance here from the 1 box under good 7lb claimer R.Kennemore. Should be able to follow Conjecture round the inside and if the pace is good enough looks to have real solid claims.
Shade Cosy: Takes a slight drop in class here and if coming back to his January form would have a decent chance here – but would appear to be in the grip of the handicapper based on his most recent effort and it would take a leap of faith to back him at 6/1 here.
Conjecture: The only runner it would appear likely to try and force the pace – clearly quite low-grade and this step up to 6 furlongs not likely to suit, unless he gets a real soft lead. Has place prospects, but hard to see him holding off some of the fast finishers.
Joyeaux: Seems to reserve his best form for around here and another who likes to be held-up off a fast pace. Looks well handicapped on his course form and his recent 4th at Mussleburgh over a now inadequate 5 furlongs will have put him spot on for this return to Polytrack. Another with solid place claims.
<br>Conclusion
Cape Presto’s ability to lie handy enough to likely leader Conjecture negates his wide draw, and if returning in the same form as last time out he will take all the beating. Late finishers Gilded Cove and Joyeaux could fight out the places – but will struggle to get to Cape Presto if the early pace is modest.
Bet: 3pts Win Cape Presto<br>
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